If you want to get an argument with someone just tell them what you think about gold for some reason gold inspires a passion
That's usually reserved for it debates about socialism. So today, let's have some fun and talk about gold so far
It's up 16% in the last year putting the stock market's performance to shame
But why are prices rising and how much farther isn't gonna go?
Well, that's we're gonna talk about on this week's episode of real visions. The one thing
What's going on investors 8k here
we've heard a lot about gold on real vision lately and some of that coverage was because of our recent recession watch special because of
course when people talk about recessions or financial crises
they're gonna bring up gold dan tam Piero of gold bullion international explained why that is my only point is that
Gold. It's a it's a hedge in the traditional system, you know for the traditional system
stocks
And most people who are along stocks and bonds
You know gold is a good hedge
It's that simple when stocks and bonds go down people expect gold to rise or at least maintain its value Luc Roman explains that phenomenon
what I think gold is is
is really
useless for about 99 percent of the long economic cycle and
Then in the 1% of the economic cycle the long economic cycle which tends to correlate correlate or coincide with
Sovereign debt bubbles globally, it's critical to own Luke isn't alone in that line of thinking either
Here's what Rob Paul said about gold in his piece kicking off recession watch gold is an option on the endgame
So if we are going to go to extreme monetary policy, which looks like I've walked you through a set of pretty easy
probabilities that that could happen in the next 18 months
Well, then gold has to go higher now sure if the dollar goes higher Gold's gonna come back a bit
But over time I think the dollar on gold go higher and gold goes a lot higher over the longer run and it's now
acting as that probability on this end game now when you're talking about a strengthening dollar you're talking about a dollar that's gaining value against
other currencies
Well gold can gain value even faster in that scenario gold can keep rising even as the dollar rises to Greg Weldon
discuss the dynamic around the world where countries are trying to create an inflation and growth by devaluing their currencies and as he explains that
Could be a dream scenario for gold. What did it make sense?
That gold is kind of appreciating in oil paper currencies
because essentially what you really have going on here at the end of the day the most base case at the
Instinctive level is a growing uncertainty fear and even mistrust around all paper
They're just gonna keep printing more and more paper. Every time there's an issue around dis inflation deflation
Well, you know at some point there is a level of uncertainty in tidy around all that paper and it is io u--'s currencies sovereign
Debt, it's all the same
It's an IOU and you know
It's kind of cliche but it is powerful and it's true the dynamic around gold
Being kind of an offset to all of this paper that they just keep printing
Christoffel re is also looking at extreme central bank actions to boost gold. I am mr. Bleekham inside. I never been as bullish as
In the past on God, I was bullish when we met in March and God was 21300
it I still believe that the old yields will go further lower and
And I still believe that because you can have so much
cash injection plus a
currency war between all the central bank's trying to
To put cash on their respective currencies. So you have a risk of debasement of the official currencies
I think the gold is a God desire
He has got a girdle mix in front of it and most of the target are you looking for a man? I?
remember my first target was
1500 and so I will keep it like that for everyone
But I think you are young. So how you play it if you agree with Christophe, you can't go wrong buying physical gold
Well, there's always gold contracts like the GLD ETF and there's gold miner ETFs to like GDX
but if you're trying to hedge against the financial apocalypse
Then those aren't necessarily gonna help
But at least they keep you from having to carry around your fortune in your mouth
Steve Strasse talks about the gold miners ETF and a recent trade idea settlement if you're gonna hold on
Long term and all the risk appetite
Indicators that were talking about and silver and the dollar rolls over and everything
Kind of plays out the way we want it to I think yeah, you can continue buying weakness all the way back to all-time highs
And that could be a while
there's other more tactical ways to play it if you want to wait for prices to potentially retrace back to our risk level closer to
25 25 25 50 and you can get long there again and play a tactical trade just back up to
2016 size and then we also have a 62%
Fibonacci retracement, which I have on the GDX chart you could also use that as a price target
so there's a couple different ways that you could play this but I think the bottom line is that this is a
brand-new secular bull market
It's gonna take some time to play out
there's gonna be some backing and filling and we could be buying weakness and betting a much higher prices over the long term if we're
Patient Greg Walden also likes the GDX chart thirty years in doing this I'm telling you
It's one of the most reliable
patterns when you in a
Long-term trend breakout and it kind of seems like it's running out of steam and it comes down
He might even make a lower low, but it holds above the violated trendline
That's huge that retest on the back side particularly when it lays out right in the zone between the 50 and 61%
Fibonacci retracements in the meantime you get back over the two-year moving average
Which is now accelerating the upside and making a new high in line with price a very bullish dynamic and this is long-term stuff
Man here look at the 52 week and the 2 year moving averages crossing over here as well. Very bullish
The GDX would be the trade here
You know in the in terms of what trade we're putting on here
one of them
GTX would be a would be an option and frankly you just plow right in here because the risk reward is still quite favorable of
course
Even if you don't know which way gold is gonna go next there might still be reason to get in just ask Rick rule
I own gold
personally
For reasons of fear not greed simon, Mikhaylovich puts a more optimistic spin on it
Remember how we talked about gold maintaining its value and everything else is falling
That means that those who hold gold might be able to jump on opportunities that arise later
I see gold not only is a as a panic type thing where they Armageddon I see it as a
Strategic liquidity reserve that can a help you survive?
But it can also make you much wealthier than you are by giving you options and opportunities
when other people have no options and no opportunities and a force down the path of
Selling off what they have just to meet their obligations
So there you have it gold can work in a recession an apocalypse or even a central bank money printing Palooza
No wonder people have been piling into it this year if you want some more ammo for your gold debates then consider subscribing your real
Vision you could watch all these interviews and they're full there. I'll talk to you next week
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