Mexico beat Germany 1-0 in what was perhaps the least expected result of the tournament
so far.
On paper, Germany have a stronger squad and in Joachim Low, a manager who has won the
World Cup and the Confederations Cup and therefore would not be expected to make the sort of
errors that left Germany consistently vulnerable.
This was nominally a battle of two 4-2-3-1s, but there were significant differences in
how both sides played.
Germany pushed both their full backs very high, especially Joshua Kimmich, who has teamed
up well with Thomas Muller on the right for Bayern this season and is an assist machine.
There was certainly a sense that Germany felt they could dominate territory and possession
and so they were unafraid to press up the pitch.
Unfortunately for Germany, though, two factors meant that this was an unwise approach.
Firstly, Carlos Vela, who was outstanding both creatively and defensively, and Javier
Hernandez, teamed up to try to mark Toni Kroos out of the game.
Because Germany advanced in to high positions to receive the ball, rather than working to
carry it forwards, their ability to get the ball into dangerous areas relied on Kroos
pulling the strings as he usually does.
He could not, though, due to this marking, and that disrupted Germany’s build-up.
Secondly, Germany frequently attacked without playing to their strengths.
Timo Werner is superb at running on to quick, flat through balls and, indeed, this did work
a few times towards the beginning of the game – a combination of Mexico’s marking of
passing lanes, and the reductive Germany attacking once they had conceded, meant that Werner
became a hard-working but ineffective figure before being replaced.
Mesut Ozil’s strength is creating these sort of passes too, and he was trying his
best to generate opportunities centrally but Germany otherwise seemed to be abandon their
game-plan all too quickly.
Instead, Germany tried to cross the ball a lot.
Not only did Mexico’s centre backs defend the ball well, but the left back, converted
winger Jesus Gallardo, closed superbly.
Even once Mario Gomez was on, Germany still looked like they were trying something desperate,
rather than playing to a game-plan.
Defensively, Germany also failed, and this is where Low’s biggest errors were manifest.
Not only did their commitment to pushing high leave the defence, especially Jerome Boateng,
very exposed, but all too often the gap between defence and midfield was only patrolled by
Toni Kroos, as Germany had as many as seven outfield players ahead of the ball.
Low’s response to this vulnerability was to change to a double pivot of Mesut Ozil
and Toni Kroos, rather than bring on Sebastian Rudy, or even Leon Goretzka or Ilkay Gundogan,
to shore things up and give some semblance of ball winning capability in the midfield.
That he did not was odd given Mexico’s approach.
And Mexico’s approach was hugely effective.
As well as Vela and Hernandez closing down Toni Kroos, Hector Herrera was enormously
influential in midfield, winning tackles and carrying the ball forwards, while Andres Guardado
pulled the strings from a deeper position and covered the back four.
This allowed Mexico to counter attack with vigour and they did, exploiting the pace of
Miguel Layun on the right and Hirving Lozano on the left.
Lozano, Gallardo, Guardado and left centre back Hector Moreno made an especially effective
shape on Mexico’s left, exploiting Kimmich’s advanced position to create chance after chance.
By keeping a compact, hard-working midfield and defensive shape, exploiting their pace
out wide, and, crucially, retreating to more of a 5-4-1 as the game wore on and Vela, Lozano,
and Guardado were brought off, Mexico were tactically excellent.
Several of their players, especially Lozano and Herrera, had outstanding games too.
A combination of that, great coaching and preparation by Juan Carlos Osorio, and a rare
poor tactical outing from Joachim Low and his team meant that, while this Mexico win
was a surprise, it certainly wasn’t undeserved.