NEIL: ALL RIGHT.
THE PRESIDENT WARNING YOU DON'T
ELECT ME, THERE'S GOING TO BE A
MARKET CRASH.
THAT SIMPLE.
GARY B. SMITH AND PHIL FLYNN ARE
WITH ME.
FIRST, IT'S KIND OF A RISKY
THING TO SAY ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER, BUT WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF
WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS SAYING?
EVERYTHING YOU HAVE BEEN SEEING
HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY, THE
MARKETS AND ALL THE STOCK
BUY-BACKS AND GREAT EARNINGS AND
ALL OF THAT, ALL GOES IF I'M NOT
RE-ELECTED.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> WELL, I THINK THERE ARE TWO
CAMPS HERE.
FIRST OF ALL, IS IT GOOD
POLITICS.
IT'S FANTASTIC POLITICS.
LOOK, EVERYTHING IS ROSY AROUND
HERE.
NOTHING'S CRASHING.
THE MARKET IS AT OR NEAR NEW
HIGHS.
AND HE'S SAYING LISTEN, YOU
DON'T WANT THAT, THEN DON'T
ELECT ME.
FROM THE ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE,
YOU KNOW, A CRASH BETWEEN NOW
AND NOVEMBER OF 2020, I DON'T
KNOW CRASH, BUT I THINK THERE'S
A LOT OF OMINOUS SIGNS OUT THERE
FOR A REAL MARKET SELLOFF.
NEIL: PHIL FLYNN, WHAT DO YOU
THINK?
>> I DON'T SEE THAT RIGHT NOW.
I'M ACTUALLY PRETTY OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT THE WAY THE ECONOMY'S
GOING.
USUALLY IF YOU ARE GOING TO GET
A CRASH IN THE MARKET BEFORE
NOVEMBER, IT USUALLY COMES AFTER
IRRATIONAL ENTHUSIASM.
WE'RE NOT SEEING A LOT OF THAT
IN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW.
WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF SIDEWAYS
ACTION.
WHEN IT COMES TO DONALD TRUMP,
YOU KNOW, EVEN THOUGH, YOU KNOW,
HE'S PROBABLY EXAGGERATING THAT
THE STOCK MARKET WOULD CRASH IF
HE'S NOT ELECTED, I DO WORRY
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BERNIE
SANDERS GOT ELECTED, RIGHT?
WHAT THAT WOULD DO TO THE MARKET
ONCE HE STARTS TO PRIVATIZE,
TAKE OVER PRIVATE BUSINESSES,
TAKE AWAY PROPERTY, RAISE TAXES.
THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE ECONOMY
WOULD CRASH.
AT THE END OF THE DAY WHEN WE
TALK ABOUT DONALD TRUMP, LISTEN,
WHEN DONALD TRUMP GOT ELECTED
THE FIRST TIME, JUST REMEMBER
WHAT ALL THE PUNDITS WERE
TELLING YOU.
THE STOCK MARKET'S GOING TO GO
DOWN 10%, 11%.
HILLARY CLINTON IS THE ONLY
SAVIOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET.
WHAT HAPPENED?
WE HAD ONE OF THE MOST DYNAMIC
STOCK MARKET RALLIES IN THE
HISTORY OF THE WORLD.
WHY?
LESS REGULATION, GOVERNMENT
GETTING OUT OF THE WAY.
SO I CAN SEE WHY DONALD TRUMP IS
SAYING HEY, IF WE REVERSE ALL OF
THAT, WE WILL PROBABLY GET BACK
TO THE HILLARY CLINTON ELECTION
DAY WHICH WOULD BE A MAJOR
CORRECTION FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, GARY BVM
NEIL: YOU KNOW, GARY B., YOU CAN
FLIP THAT AROUND.
MOST PRESIDENTS TALK ABOUT, WE
SEE FROM RONALD REAGAN WHEN HE
BEAT JIMMY CARTER THE FIRST
GO-ROUND, HIS ARGUMENT WAS ARE
YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE
FOUR YEARS AGO.
AMERICANS SAID ACTUALLY NO,
WE'RE NOT.
FOUR YEARS LATER HE SAID ARE YOU
BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE FOUR
YEARS AGO WHEN I CAME IN.
YES, WE ARE.
BUT HE DIDN'T MAKE THE NEXT LEAP
TO SAY WELL, IF YOU WANT TO RISK
THIS, AND SEE A CRASH, THEN VOTE
FOR THE OTHER GUY.
SO I DON'T KNOW WHETHER THAT'S
MORE OF A PERSONAL KIND OF A
QUESTION OR A RISK THAT THE
PRESIDENT TAKES ALL BUT INVITING
A MARKET DISASTER IF IT'S HIS
RE-ELECTION THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN.
>> YOU KNOW, IT'S INTERESTING.
I DON'T KNOW IF HE'S INVITING --
IT DOES SEEM KIND OF LIKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WHISTLING PAST THE
GRAVEYARD, BUT IT GOES TO THE
POINT THAT PHIL MADE.
I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING THAT
PHIL SAID BUT HE MADE ONE
COMMENT AND HE SAID YOU KNOW,
THE MARKET'S KIND OF MOVING
SIDEWAYS AND THAT GETS BACK TO
MY WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD
COMMENT.
THERE ARE SO MANY OTHER SHOES
THAT HAVEN'T DROPPED.
WE STILL DON'T HAVE A RESOLUTION
ON CHINA.
WE STILL HAVE, NOW WE ARE
DEALING WITH OIL TANKERS BEING
BLOWN UP.
WE STILL HAVE DEFINITELY A
EUROPEAN ECONOMY THAT'S IN A
STALL.
WE HAVE THE CHINA ECONOMY
WITHOUT THE TARIFFS IS IN A
STALL.
OUR ECONOMY, BY MOST METRICS, IS
IN A STALL.
MAYBE I'M JUST WORRIED ABOUT
THAT OTHER SHOE.
MAYBE I'M ALWAYS WORRIED ABOUT
THE OTHER SHOE, THOUGH.
THAT'S THE OMINOUS THING THAT
I'M WORRIED ABOUT.
NEIL: YEAH.
YOU SHOULD BE WORRIED.
BALANCE IT OUT, WHETHER IT'S
JUSTIFIED IS ANYONE'S GUESS.
I WAS GOING BACK, THE PRESIDENT
PRESIDING OVER A GOOD ECONOMY IS
ALWAYS RE-ELECTED, THEN I WENT
REALLY FAR BACK, 1892 WHEN
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT BENJAMIN
HARRIS WAS TAKING ON THE FORMER
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT GROVER
CLEVELAND, THE ECONOMY WAS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT, BUT THERE WERE
TALKS THAT THE ADMINISTRATION
THE 48% TARIFFS IN EFFECT AND
THEY WERE WIDENING, AND IT UNDID
HIM.
HE ENDED UP LOSING.
GROVER CLEVELAND GOT ELECTED,
THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO SERVE TWO
TERMS THOUGH NOT CONCURRENTLY.
I SHARE THAT STORY NOT TO BORE
YOU BECAUSE GOD KNOWS YOU CAN'T
BE BORED FURTHER STILL WITH WHAT
I SAY, BUT IT WAS A REMINDER
THAT WE CLING TO YEAH, THE
ECONOMY'S STRONG, BUT, BUT, BUT,
AN ISSUE LIKE TARIFFS ARE A
BLACK SWAN DEVELOPMENT LIKE MUCH
MORE EXPENSIVE GOODS COMING INTO
THIS COUNTRY, IT COULD BOOMERANG
ON YOU.
>> I THINK IT COULD.
I THINK -- YEAH, I DO THINK --
>> GO AHEAD, PHIL.
>> SORRY, I APOLOGIZE.
I THOUGHT HE WAS COMING TO ME.
I DO THINK THAT'S A RISK.
I AGREE WITH GARY B.
THE CHINA TRADE WAR THING IS
REALLY HURTING HIM BOTH FROM A
POLITICAL VIEWPOINT AND FROM AN
ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT.
BUT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO A
DEAL, WE WILL GET THE EQUAL AND
OPPOSITE TRANSACTION.
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT GROVER
CLEVELAND, MY BEST MEMORY OF HIM
IS THAT THEY INTRODUCED HIM TO
THE LEADER OF THE CHICAGO BEARS
AND HE GOES GREAT, I LOVE ANIMAL
ACTS.
I DON'T KNOW IF YOU CAN GO BACK
THAT FAR.
NEIL: THE ISSUE THERE, NOT SO
MUCH THE CHICAGO BEARS, BUT THE
ISSUE THERE WAS A STRONG ECONOMY
MIGHT BE ONE THING BUT THE
PROSPECT OF PAYING A LOT MORE
FOR GOODS IN THAT CASE BACK THEN
UP TO 48%, THAT CAN ZOOM YOU.
>> YEAH.
YEAH.
EXACTLY.
THAT'S ONE BLACK SWAN.
I WILL GIVE YOU ANOTHER BLACK
SWAN.
ALL OF A SUDDEN THE ENTIRE, YOU
KNOW, WHETHER THE REPUBLICANS OR
DEMOCRATS, THEY ALL SEEM TO BE
ALIGNED AGAINST BIG TECH.
BIG TECH HAS BEEN THE DRIVING
ECONOMIC ENGINE FOR AT LEAST THE
LAST 25 YEARS.
THEY ARE LOOKING TO KILL THE
GOLDEN GOOSE OUT THERE.
THOSE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS