TODAY, MARKET OPENS UP
TOMORROW, LET'S BRING IN WRITE
NOW THE GARTMAN LETTER EDITOR,
DENNIS GARTMAN GOOD MORNING.
>> WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF MARKETS
YEAR-TO-DATE THIS HAS BEEN
ABOUT UNBELIEVABLE YEAR FOR
STOCKS.
>> THAT IS THE ONLY THING
ANYONE CAN SAY TRULY
UNBELIEVABLY YEAR PEOPLE KNEE
FOOIT
NEOPHYTES I HAVE SEEN THIS
BEFORE I WOULD BE A LITTLE
CONCERNED A BULL MARKET I CAN
WRITE DOWN 45 YEARS OF WISDOM
IN MARKETS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
IT STOPS.
CHERYL: OKAY.
GO UP UNTIL IT DOESN'T GO UP
ANY MORE 45 YEARS EXPERIENCE
LET'S TALK ABOUT 1998, 2000 A
GOOD PIES IN THE "THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL" THIS MORNING
ABOUT THE FACT THERE IS
CONCERN, THAT CORPORATE
PROFITS OF ARE LAGGING, BEHIND
MARKET PERFORMANCE, AND I AM
WONDERING IF THAT BOTHERS YOU
THIS IS KIND OF WHERE WE WERE
IN 1998, 2000, YOU KNOW
EVERYTHING CRASHED AROUND THE
BUBBLE, HOW DO YOU FEEL?
>> IT IS DISCONCERTING TO SEE
STOCKS AHEAD OF EARNINGS, HAVE
TO CATCH UP I SUSPECT EARNINGS
WILL CATCH UP SHARE PRIDES
COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT OVER
THE NEXT YEAR THAT THAT A HOW
THAT WILL RESOLVE ITSELF
DISCON CERTIFICATEING TO SEE
STOCKS PRICES UP 28% EARNINGS
BARELY HIGHER NOT SUSTAINABLE
ONE OF THESE THINGS HAS TO
NARROW PROBABLY YOU WILL SEE
BOTH NARROW.
>> JAMES FREEMAN HERE AT "THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL," TO
EXAMINE 2000 ANALOGY WE SAW A
REALITY CHECK IN YEAR ON SOME
HIGH-FLYING TECH COMPANIES,
THAT DO NOT HAVE REAL
EARNINGS.
AS YOU LOOK NOW ACROSS THE
BROAD MARKET DOES IT LOOK TO
YOU LIKE 1999?
OR NOT NEARLY THAT EXTREME IN
TERMS OF VALUATIONS?
>> WELL NOT NEARLY AS EXTREME
BUT DOES HAVE THE MARKET DOES
SEEM AWFULLY SIMILAR WHAT
BOTHERED ME THIS YEAR MORE
THAN ANYTHING IS THE LUNACY
STUPIDITY EXTREMITY OF WEWORK
WE ALSO HAD A TRUE SCAM
BROUGHT UPON AMERICAN PUBLIC
THE "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL"
DID A VERY GOOD JOB
HE COMPOSING WHAT WAS GOING ON
THERE AT THE TIME SILLINESS
INVOLVED TYPES OF THINGS THAT
HAPPEN AT MARKET PEAKS DOESN'T
MEAN PEAKING RIGHT NOW CAN'T
CONTINUING TO HIGHER AS I SAID
IN MY NEWSLETTER MARKETS CAN
REMAIN I WILL LOGICAL LONGER
THAN YOU OR I CAN MAIM SOLVENT
BUT WE SEE SIMILARITIES
BETWEEN NOW AND END OF LAST
WICKED VERY DISCONCERTING TO
SAY THE VERY LEAVES.
>> THAT GOES BACK TO
CONVERSATION TECHNOLOGY
COMPANIES NOBODY KNEW WHAT
COMPANIES DID NO WAY TO PROVE
THAT THEY ARE -- MAKING MONEY,
INVESTORS BOUGHT IN DO YOU
WORRY, LIKE LOOKING AT NASDAQ
RIGHT NOW WE ARE ABOUT TO HAVE
ANOTHER LIKE IF WE HOLD UP
RIGHT NOW TENTH CONSECUTIVE
CLOSE ON NASDAQ HAVE NOT SEEN
ACTION LIKE THIS SINCE 1997.
>> IT IS DISMAYING
DISCONVERTING AS I SAID
REMINISCENT WHAT WE SAW THE
END OF THE LAST CENTURY AND WE
HAVE SEEN IN 2006, 2017, 2008
IT IS BOTHERSOME TO ME THE
FACT THAT YOU HAD THE FACT
THAT WE WORK WAS CALLED A
HIGH-TECH COMPANY, IS STILL
AMAZING TO ME IT WAS A REAL
ESTATE COMPANY MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE, YET WE TRY TO
HIDE AS BEING SOME HIGH-TECH,
UBER IS TALKED ABOUT AS BEING
HIGH-TECH COMPANY IT IS REALLY
A TRANSPORTATION COMPANY.
AND THE FACT WE TRY TO HIDE
EVERYTHING UNDER THE -- THE
MINION OF BEING HIGH-TECH IS
BOTHERSOME MARKETS CAN REMAIN
ILLOGICAL.
>> MY QUESTION IS.
>> HI, JOHN.
>> MY QUESTION ECONOMISTS THE
CONSENSUS VIEW OF ECONOMISTS
IS IF U.S. ECONOMY IS SLOWING
TO UNDER 2% AT 2020.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE
CONSENSUS VIEW OF EQUITY
ANALYSTS HAS ACCELERATION OF
S&P 500 REVENUES FROM ROUGHLY
3 1/2 TO 3.8%, IN 2019 UP TO
ABOUT 5 1/2% IN 2020 HOW DO
YOU SCARE THESE DIFFERENCES?
>> YOU CAN'T IT IS NOT
SQUAREBLE, NOT SQUAREBLE
CANNOT LIVE AT SAME TIME WE
HAVE A MARKET BULLISH NEWS IS
BULLISH FOR THE MARKET AND
BEARISH NEWS IS BULLISH FOR
THE MARKET IT MATTERS NOT AT
THIS POINT THAT IS ILLOGIC
WHAT IS GOING ON SOONER RATHER
THAN LATER A BEAR MARKET NOT A
QUESTION WHEN WE DO GOING TO
BE 25 OR 30% CORRECTION WILL
HAPPEN WHEN IT HAPPENS.
I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT --
>> CAN WE SQUARE -- GO AHEAD.
>> I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT ONE OF THE REASONS
WHY THE MARKET COULD SHRUG OFF
SUBPAR EARNINGS FOR 2019 IS
BECAUSE OF THE DEEP DROP BY
INTEREST RATES FED FUNDS CAME
DOWN FROM 2.38, TO 1.63, 10
YEAR TREASURE YIELD OFF
SHARPLY MOREOVER CORPORATE
BOND YIELDS MY GOODNESS JUNK
BOND JEELD DOWN BY 2 TO 2 1/2
PERCENTAGE POINTS WHERE YEAR
END 2018.
>> THANK GOODNESS FOR THAT
CHANGE IN JUNK BONDS WE ONLY
POSITION I HAVE IN RETIREMENT
ACCOUNT GETTING READY TO
RETIRE END OF THE MONTH ARE
BASICALLY CORPORATE DEBT JUNK
BONDS A RULE OF RUN 45 TO 50
DAYS HOORAY FOR THAT AM I GO
TO GO EXPOSE MYSELF TO THE
EQUITIES MARKET AT THIS POINT?
NO, NOT HARDLY.
>> WE'VE GOT INITIAL JOBLESS
CLAIMS FOR THE WEEK FELL BY
13,000.
IN THE WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 21
NOW -- A HEALTHY MARKET MY
QUESTION IS WHAT DOES THIS DO
TO COMPANIES IN 2020 WE STILL
HAVE ABOUT INCREDIBLY LOW
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WAGES ARE
GOING UP ISN'T THAT EATING
INTO PROFITS.
>> ONE WOULD THINK WOULD WITH
ONLY SEEM LOGICAL.
>> THE JOBLESS CLAIMS STEADILY
AS EXPECTED WHAT WE GOT THE
ANCHOR POINT, YOU CANNOT
CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS SORT OF
LOW LEVEL UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH
LEVEL EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT WAGE
DECREASES WE ARE GOING TO
START SEEING THAT THIS YEAR
CAN'T BE ANY OTHER WAY OTHER
THAN THAT.
>> DENNIS I AM SORRY TO HEAR
YOU ARE RETIRING.
>> YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT?
[LAUGHTER]
>> NO ACTUALLY I AM LOOKING
FORWARD TO IT THE FELLOWS I
UNIFIED TO BE ABLE TO BEAT ON
GOLF COURSE RETIRED THREE
YEARS AGO I HAVE TO CATCH UP
WITH THEM BEAT THEM AGAIN I AM
NOT RETIRING COMPLETELY.
>> ALL RIGHT.
>> JUST WRITING A BIWEEKLY
GETTING UP 1:00 EVERY MORNING
-- THAT IS DONE!