I am sure many of you will agree that these last few years have been chaotic: a pandemic,
the biggest war in Europe since World War Two, an energy crisis and the highest inflation
in several decades.
Maybe you don’t agree with Elon Musk when he said that these are the most interesting
of times, but you have to agree that it’s certainly not boring.
And, to top it off, it seems that the old Eastern bloc dynamic has been revived.
Some even say that the Cold War is returning, only this time, the main opponent of the United
States is not another union of socialist republics like the USSR, but the People's Republic of
China.
Well VisualPolitik viewers, if there is one thing that Washington takes very, very seriously,
it is none other than National Security.
As a result, in the National Security Strategy that the Biden Administration published in
2022, they did not hesitate to point directly to what they consider their two greatest threats,
China and Russia.
("These competitors mistakenly believe democracy is weaker than autocracy because they fail
to understand that a nation's power springs from its people.
The United States is strong abroad because we are strong at home.
Our economy is dynamic.
Our people are resilient and creative.
Our military remains unmatched – and we will keep it that way".
– POTUS Joe Biden on the National Security Strategy 2022)
But let’s remember, this is the 21st century.
Despite what we are seeing in Ukraine, today’s threats no longer come only in the form of
conventional wars.
Cybersecurity and the use of artificial intelligence are also becoming two major priorities for
national security agencies.
And it doesn’t end there, so far this century the use of trade and economic warfare is also
becoming more and more important.
For this reason, and to complete a series of videos we have made on the security situation
in the United States – you’ll find several links in the description – we at VisualPolitik
have asked ourselves a few questions:
What really are the major threats facing the United States today?
How dangerous is the American rivalry with China and Russia?
How are these countries trying to weaken the great North American power both economically
and militarily?
Are external threats the only ones Uncle Sam is facing?
Well VisualPolitik viewers, in this video we are going to answer all these questions.
But first...
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(THE NEW FORMS OF WAR)
It is more than clear to all of us that the US military is by far the most powerful in
the world.
But, imagine for a moment that the United States and China were to suddenly start an
all-out war, by land, sea and air.
Aerial bombardments, naval battles, missiles, cyber attacks...
Do you think that in such a scenario China would be more successful than Russia was in
Ukraine?
Well, most probably yes.
Unlike Putin's country, China is an industrial and also, to some extent, a technological
superpower.
It is also a much bigger country with much more resources and perhaps that is why China
is modernizing much faster than Russia.
It’s already the world's second largest economic power, behind only the United States.
So, China has more than enough capacity for upgrading its weaponry and military capabilities.
Good evidence of this is the presentation of the aircraft carrier CNS Fujian, the third
and most advanced aircraft carrier China has produced and which in certain fields competes
directly with the most advanced US carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, for example, in the use
of electromagnetic catapults.
As you can imagine, the new aircraft carriers China is building will reinforce its maritime
dominance in the entire region.
Even so, this is only the tip of the iceberg, as this country is also investing heavily
in the production of hypersonic missiles, six times faster than the American F-35 fighters.
Meanwhile, it is China’s investment in cyberspace that is attracting the most attention.
In fact, according to Verizon, 95% of all cyberespionage suffered by the United States
comes precisely from China.
That's why it's not unusual to come across news stories like this from time to time:
(25 May 2023: Chinese hackers spying on US critical infrastructure, Western intelligence
says.
– Reuters) (24 May 2023: Chinese Hackers Targeting US, Guam Aim to Disrupt Communications,
Microsoft Says.
Guam has become increasingly important strategic hub for US.
– Bloomberg) (2 October 2022: Chinese hacking group targeting
US agencies and companies has surged its activity, analysis finds.
– CNN)
In reality, the biggest threat the United States is facing right now from other nations
is cyberattacks.
But take note!
It’s not only from China, Russia, for example, is not far behind either.
In fact, in February 2022, the United States expelled 12 officers from the Russian mission
to the UN for having been conducting espionage and cyber espionage operations.
However, US concern also extends to a suggestion Putin has put on the table during his invasion
of Ukraine: the use of nuclear weapons.
We all know by now that Russia is the world's largest nuclear power and that China is very
close to overtaking India, Pakistan and North Korea.
Nevertheless, the US has its eyes on another player, check out this news item:
(Iran nuclear: IAEA inspectors find uranium particles enriched to 83.7%.
– BBC)
Exactly, I don't think this will come as a surprise to anyone but, VisualPolitik viewers,
Uncle Sam is worried about Iran.
The land of the Ayatollahs is managing to enrich uranium to levels that are very close
to what is needed for developing nuclear weapons.
And that is something that could create immense chaos in the Middle East.
Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey...
Practically, the whole world would go crazy in this region if the Ayatollahs finally got
their hands on the bomb.
The risk would be too high.
The Iranian regime would be untouchable, even, for instance, with regard to the Strait of
Hormuz, through which much of the oil consumed by countries such as South Korea, Japan and
Taiwan passes.
And who is Iran’s ally?
3,2,1...
Exactly!
Xi Jinping's China, are you starting to connect the dots?
So we have China, Russia, Iran, conventional warfare, hybrid warfare and cyber attacks.
These are all relatively new risks that have been created or rebooted in the last two decades.
So the question is, in the face of all this, what is the United States doing?
Well, of course, they are not going to stand idly by.
And that is what explains news headlines like this:
(Biden prepares largest Pentagon budget in history as spending cuts loom.
– Politico)
Make no doubt about it, Uncle Sam is going to step on the gas.
The US is going to continue to spend massive amounts of money to try to remain far superior
to all of its opponents on all fronts.
With all the cyberattacks it suffers, the Biden administration has made cybersecurity
a central pillar.
As a result, the US military has already deployed several teams tasked with cybersecurity as
well as teams to conduct its own cyberattacks.
Likewise, with technological development, especially from China, the Pentagon is stepping
up its game and pouring billions and billions of dollars into robotics, artificial intelligence,
laser technology and the development of hypersonic attack and defense systems.
For example, in recent years, Lockheed Martin has installed the HELIOS system on all US
Navy destroyers.
In other words, the United States already has laser weapons in its fleet capable of
shooting down aircraft and sinking ships.
So, in a nutshell, we are witnessing the beginnings of a new military race.
Of course, what we have seen is the most conventional part of the threats.
But we are in the 21st century and if there is one thing we have learned, it is that these
are not the only threats that exist at the international level.
We can find many more possibilities.
And one of the most popular lately is precisely this one...
(THE DOLLAR EMPIRE...
IN TROUBLE?)
We all remember Joe Biden saying that he would make Russia an international pariah after
it invaded Ukraine.
And he meant it: the sanctions he imposed along with the European Union have made many
countries around the world no longer so confident about engaging with Russia for fear of sanctions.
But, not surprisingly, Russia has already found a partner who has its back to some extent:
China.
Gone are the old Cold War disputes.
Today China and Russia have a strong relationship that extends from the military field to energy,
finance and trade.
Nevertheless, with the exception of energy, the relationship is rather imbalanced.
For example, while Chinese products account for 18% of all that Russia imports, Russian
products account for barely 2% of what China imports from the rest of the world.
But this is certainly not the only asymmetry between the two, mind you:
Indeed, VisualPolitik viewers, since the imposing of sanctions that prevent Russia from trading
easily in dollars or euros, Russia has made the yuan its main currency for international
transactions.
Not only that, it has also become Russia’s main reserve currency.
But this is hardly surprising – after all, both countries are part of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization and have been pushing for trade in local currencies rather than dollars.
And, not only that, in 2015 Russia and China also signed a financial alliance that reinforced
this very idea.
In fact, while some large Chinese banks have stopped dealing with Russia for fear of violating
international sanctions, small and medium-sized banks are not following their lead.
As a result, Russia has been able to somewhat circumvent some of the major sanctions, for
example, by using alternative payment infrastructures to overcome the SWIFT blockade of many of
its banks.
All in all, it is not unusual for Putin to say things like this:
("We are in favor of using the Chinese yuan for payments between Russia and the countries
of Asia, Africa and Latin America."
– Putin after his last meeting with Xi Jinping this year 2023)
Now, becoming dependent on the Yuan…
That also has a lot of problems!
We told you about that in a recent video that is linked in the description.
Swapping Washington's control for Beijing's doesn't seem like the best idea in the world
either.
And that is why Russia has considered another possibility: to create a new currency among
the BRICS.
For those of you who don't remember, the term BRICS refers to the acronym for five major
emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Between them they account for almost half of the world's population and twenty percent
of global GDP.
With such numbers, it hardly seems unreasonable to think that they could create a currency
capable of competing with the dollar.
It is not only that the participating countries would use it, but that they could also make
many other countries adapt it for international trade...
And so, little by little, a huge network of operations in the BRICS currency could be
created.
For example, if Thailand had to start using this currency to trade with China, from Brazil
they could continue to buy Thai products without having to use a different currency, because
Thailand could also benefit from being paid in this currency.
And the question is, what is the point of all this?
Well, basically to end the dominance of the dollar, reduce the amount of international
capital ending up in the United States and, incidentally, prevent Washington from being
able to take advantage of its position to apply sanctions left and right.
Of course, it's not easy either.
The dollar is very strong and, let's be honest, who would trust a currency run by countries
like Russia or China?
Besides, could they really agree on who is in charge or how to manage it?
It doesn't look like a straightforward mission...
Whatever the case, there can be no doubt that the dollar would maintain the bulk of its
influence in the global economy.
We have already told you about this in detail here on VisualPolitik.
Take a look at the description.
For now, in this video what we wanted to do was to focus on another threat where US adversaries
are already increasing…
This is another of the great risks against National Security that Uncle Sam faces...
Risks for which the country seems well covered for now...
But...
Are there only external risks?
What if the American entrails themselves had some parasite willing to cause them a lot
of harm?
Any idea what we're talking about?
Well...
Listen up.
(A LARGE LOCAL FRACTURE?)
As we all know, the United States is a country with many strengths, but also with many, many
problems.
We see them everywhere: the lack of security in many cities, a huge prison population,
the opioid epidemic, a high homeless population and many other issues.
We are talking about problems that are causing a major social fracture.
But, above anything else, there is one problem that all analysts point out as the most dangerous
of all: the enormous political and social polarization.
Yes, VisualPolitik viewers, politics in the United States is increasingly no longer focused
solely on purely managerial issues such as taxes, gun ownership or healthcare.
Now, identities have also taken over the political space: the division of society by race, ethnicity,
gender and ideology has become very strong.
In other words: tribalism has spread through US politics and polarization continues to
deepen.
Do you think I'm exaggerating?
Well, look at what Americans themselves think.
You see, more than 60% of Americans say political division and violence will increase in the
coming years.
And, let's be honest, it's very likely that this is going to be the case.
Since 2016, US society has practically split in two.
The foray into politics of one of the most controversial figures has put a dent in social
stability.
[Credit unquestionably goes to Donald Trump.
Can't deny it, right?]
The situation has reached such a point that Americans tend to be very pessimistic.
So much so as to say this: (More than 40% of Americans think civil war
likely within a decade)
Logically, it does not seem very reasonable to think of a civil war.
But all this could end up paralyzing or even collapsing many of the country's institutions.
It’s very simple: polarization makes political alliances more difficult to achieve and negotiations
more likely to end in stalemate.
And do you know what?
This is precisely why the re-election message that Joe Biden released at the end of April
of this year focuses not on the external threats, but on the great internal threat, the polarization
of society.
But, let's be honest, it is not a particularly conciliatory message.
In fact, it singles out the Republicans and does not hesitate to accuse them indirectly
of the curtailment of rights and freedoms in the country.
In short...
The United States faces new challenges...
But oddly enough, the most dangerous of all may be those at home.
Now, at this point, it is your turn: do you really believe that the United States will
have another Civil War?
Will the BRICS eventually create their own currency?
Do you think that this currency could really displace the dollar?
Will China succeed in overtaking the United States militarily?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
As always, don't forget that here on VisualPolitik we release new videos every week, so subscribe
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All the best and see you soon.