Hey everybody, Chief Meteorologist Brad
Petovich here. A hot and dry Su.
It's been a pretty nice weekend outside of
the couple isolated showers we saw yesterday.
But Monday focus starts to turnk
to some showers and thunderstorms and
in this case some could be seve.
So Monday's a day.
We want you to be weather aware
and I'll explain why here.
This is a pretty potent storm
system for this time of year.
You know in the summer we get
tons of heat and humidity,
we get popup storms,
but typically the jet stream ane
other dynamics that we have in the spring
and the fall and the other times of year are.
Weaker Well,
this has been a weird summer.
The jet stream has been a little
bit further South and interactig
with our area a lot more than we
normally see during peak heating
and that's going to be the case.
This is what we call a through.
It's an upper level low pressure system.
And front and it's attached at e
surface that's going to be movig
east and it's going to move inta
very hot and very humid air mas.
I mean today it is going to be steamy.
We're going to see low 90s,
we're already in the 80s right
now with dew points generally
already in the 60s and 70s.
Let's look at the dew points.
Yeah, that's pretty,
pretty humid air.
So what fuels thunderstorms is
heat and humidity at the surfac.
And if you have cold air aloft
in the mid number levels,
which we will with this trough,
that will prompt the risk for severe storm.
So let's get into the.
This set up so real quickly.
The severe weather outlook for today,
you can see the large area under that
risk of low and medium to high in the red.
And again that's our low and hi.
We go a little bit higher than
that depending on the set up.
But that's a pretty big line of
thunderstorms that will be to our West today.
Some could make a run at the
Carolinas late tonight,
but tomorrow you see the set up here.
We've got a low risk for most of the area,
a medium risk for most of the aa
and then this little area of re,
that's the area where I think we
going to see a heightened threat for.
Severe weather tomorrow,
especially late in the day.
Now we'll talk about the timing here,
but think primarily there.
There could be a couple rounds
of storms dying in the morning,
but this is late afternoon 45678
that time frame late afternoon
and evening as this moves in and
I'll quickly show you the closep
look here you see for our area.
We've got that risk of damaging winds
and probably some hail as well.
One of the things I do think wee
going to see with this setup is
probably a pretty decent hail
setup with some of the stronger cells,
but wind is by far going to be the biggest
threat overall damaging straight line winds.
There is a low end tornado risk especially
we get some isolated cells deve,
but I think this will primarily
transition to a wind and hail threat.
Had to heighten the flood risk a little
bit just because we had so much rain last
week that if we do see some trag
or a couple storms in the same .
Again and again,
that could lead to some flash flooding.
So let's get back to this and sw
you the future cast on how the timing
of all this is going to work ou.
All right, so today, pool days,
Lake day should be fine.
After church,
heading outside should just be .
We'll go into the afternoon hou.
You do see this cluster of stors
that kind of makes a run at
the mountains by 4:00 or 5:00.
O'clock.
And that'll be interesting to wh
because that might make it down
into the upstate of South Carol,
maybe even in the Charlotte are.
But it looks like it's weakening
and falling apart.
What's interesting about that isn't that,
you know, that's going to be.
A huge threat for severe weathe.
Sometimes that'll leave behind
boundaries or change the atmospe
for tomorrow's round,
which is actually going to
be developing back in here.
You can see that developing in e
Midwest and the Ohio Valley this evening.
So this first line is going
to kind of fall apart,
this next one heading our way.
Could make a run at us overnight as well.
And just like the one that
comes in this evening,
this one overnight and early Monday might
change the dynamics in the atmosphere.
So that's why there's still
some uncertainty in this setup.
You see 5:00 AM,
you know,
we could have a broken or dying
line of showers and storms movig
through and they fall apart.
Now typically when this happens in the
summer, when we see that early ,
this eats up all the instabilit.
So early in the day,
you know we're not going to see anything
develop and This is why I thinke
timing is really going to be late Monday.
Afternoon or Monday evening,
because that first batch in the morning will
kind of stabilize the atmosphere temporarily.
But remember it's going to be ht
again tomorrow, low 90s possibl.
So things start heating back upy
midday and as we get into mid afternoon,
4:00 o'clock, you know we start
seeing thunderstorms develop.
Now these are the ones we have o
watch coming off the mountains .
If there's an isolated cellar t,
that develops into what we call super cell.
Then we could see some small rotation.
But remember super cells also
produce big hail.
So these could be big hail,
hail hailers,
we'd like to call them developing by five,
6:00,
o'clock and you see that
cluster developing right there.
So again, to me that's the time frame,
that kind of five and then six o'clock
7-8 look at those clusters 910.
So this is going to be a late day event.
But remember again if that first batch
in the morning does something down here.
It could lead to more of
a threat to the North.
Remember that risk, that risk tomorrow
has been primarily up in this a.
So I'm going to overlay the
radar and the risk area.
So this area from Richmond downo
Asheboro is an area we're watch.
And to kind of allude to that,
I'm going to show you our futurecast,
which is a separate piece of
guidance we use here in house.
So I'm going to, I'm going to py
this and I'm going to pause it.
And I'll show you that cluster
of storms coming in tonight.
Let me move my head so you can
see the time here.
You see it moving down and falling apart.
That's late tonight and overnig.
And then tomorrow we wake up
to nothing and then sunshine,
look at the storms,
look where they develop on our
run kind of more up in this are.
So this will be fascinating
to watch if this area,
which is highlighted by SBC
or this area sees any storms.
There's some question marks down here.
This looks to be more of.
Of a certainty.
So that's why there's still
not 100% confidence in where
this most severe storms are.
But because of the setup,
I think we got to watch the
whole area equally And again,
some of the other guidance
like you're seeing here.
Is clearly showing that.
And again what I think is going
to be the concern tomorrow is,
is probably the first batch of storms
here maybe becoming super cellsd
then it transitions into more of what
we call MCS mesoscale convective system,
just which is a fancy term for
a cluster of thunderstorms.
And when we see those that typiy
means straight line winds becaue
what you're going to see is thig
arcing line of storms and maybe1
down here and one here and one up here.
Anytime you see those like they look,
they bow out like.
Like that that that's usually an indication
of strong outflows or very strong wind.
So that would be the indication
that we're going to get damaging
winds with this and this could
last into Monday evening.
So and really transition to a
pretty large system as it moves
to the coast on early Tuesday.
So let me loop this whole thing,
this is a 48 hour loop kind of
shows you the cluster of storms.
And it could be a couple waves again,
the 1st waves tonight and early tomorrow,
probably not as much but during
the heating of the day Monday if
we get sunshine for several hous
and it's 90 plus degrees on Mon,
got to be weather aware.
So remember we are definitely
going to be weather aware
tomorrow for the potential
for these strong storms.
The timing late late afternoon into the
evening wind and hail threat is medium.
2 inch possible diameter hail,
flooding medium and tornado threat is low,
but there could be some
rotating storms to stay.
Weather where I'll post updates again
tonight and we'll have you coved
on Monday as we get ready for wt
is a kind of a rare kind of setp
for Midsummer here in the Carol.