>>> SO, STEVE, STEVE RATNER IS HERE WITH THE CHARTS.
WAKE UP THE KIDS.
>> IF YOU HAVE SMALL CHILDREN,
YOU MIGHT WANT TO TAKE THEM AWAY
FROM THE TELEVISION RIGHT NOW
FOR JUST A MOMENT.
>> NO, NO, EVEN ON THE WEST
COAST, IT’S 3:30 IN THE MORNING
OR SO.
OR SO. WAKE YOUR KIDS UP.
THIS IS GOING TO BE WORTH IT.
I’VE BEEN HEARING A LOT ABOUT
AMERICANS BEING CONCERNED
THEY’RE NOT GETTING AS MUCH IN
TAX RETURNS ORIGINALLY, THEY
WERE BLAME
WERE BLAME WERE BLAMING DONALD TRUMP SAYING
I’M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR HIM
AGAIN AND THEN THEY’RE SAYING,
NO, YOU’RE NOT PAYING MORE
TAXES.
TAXES. CAN YOU CLEAR IT UP FOR US?
>> PEOPLE ARE DISUPONAPPOINTED W
WHAT THEY’RE GETTING.
WE KNEW THE TAX BILL WAS GOING
TO BE SMALL DOLLARS FOR PEOPLE,
IT WAS GOING TO BE REGRESSIVE,
FAVORING THE RICH.
I WANTED TO CON SENCENTRATE ON W
WE CALL SALT, THE SATURDAY AND
LOCAL TAX.
LOCAL TAX. THESE ARE ORGANIZED BY WHAT
PERCENTAGE OF RESIDENTS USED THE
LOCAL DEDUCTIONS IN THE PAST
YEARS.
YEARS. MARYLAND, THEY WERE THE MOST
FREQUENT USERS OF IT.
YOU CAN SEE DISPROPORTIONATELY
THE STATES IN WHICH THE TAX
DEDUCTION WAS HISTORICALLY USED
WERE BLUE STATES.
THE STATES IN WHICH THE
DEDUCTIONS WERE NOT USED ARE
HISTORICALLY RED STATES.
WHEN THE REPUBLICANS TOOK AIM AT
THIS PROVISION, NOBODY SHOULD BE
CONFUSED ABOUT ELECTIONS HAVING
CONSEQUENCES.
CONSEQUENCES. NOW WE CAN SEE THE CONSEQUENCES.
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT HOUSE
PRICES.
PRICES. CAN YOU SEE IN THESE CITY, THE
NATIONWIDE IN BLACK BUT THEN
PHOENIX, NEW YORK, LOS ANGELES,
YOU CAN SEE THERE WAS A PRETTY
STEADY INCREASE BOTH IN HOUSE
PRICES AND IN THE RATE OF GROWTH
OF HOUSE PRICES RIGHT UP UNTIL
WHERE THE BILL WAS PASSED.
AND THEN AFTER THE BILL WAS
PASSED, YOU CAN SEE THAT NEW
YORK AND LOS ANGELES, HOUSE
PRICES, THE RATE OF GROWTH OF
HOUSE PRICES IMMEDIATELY TURNED
DOWN, L.A. WAS PARTICULARLY BAD
AND THEN YOU CAN SEE OLD PHOENIX
UP HERE WHERE HOUSE PRICE
INCREASES ACTUALLY ACCELERATED.
WE’VE ALL HEARD ANECDOTAL
EVIDENCE ABOUT HOW TOUGH THE
HOUSING MARKET IS IN THE
NORTHEAST, HERE’S ACTUALLY
EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT ON PEOPLE
IN TERMS OF THE VAULLUE OF THEIR
HOUSES.
HOUSES. AND THEN THE QUESTION IS ARE
PEOPLE LEAVING?
PEOPLE LEAVING? ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE IS PRETTY
HIGH.
HIGH. THERE’S A 3.2 BUDGET SHORTFALL
IN NEW YORK.
NEW JERSEY FAMOUSLY EVEN BEFORE
THIS LAW LOST ITS SINGLE HIGHEST
PAYING TAXPAYER LEFT FOR
FLORIDA.
FLORIDA. WHAT ARE THE STATES AT RISK?
WHAT ARE THE STATES WHERE THE
RAELTY Y
RAELTY Y WEALTHY USE THE TAX DEDUCTION
AND PAY THE HIGHEST MARGINAL
RATES AND NOT SURPRISINGLY, THEY
ARE ALL BLUE STATES IN THE
NORTHEAST.
NORTHEAST. THE REPUBLICANS WON THE
ELECTION, THEY NEEDED REPRESENT
KNEW TO PAY FOR THEIR CORPORATE
AND INDIVIDUAL TAX CUTS TO
WEALTHY PEOPLE AND THEY TOOK A
LOT OF IT BY REMOVING THIS
DEDUCTION, WHICH HURT AN AWFUL
LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE NORTHEAST
AND COMPANY.
AND COMPANY. AND, STEVE, ALSO, WE PREDICTED
WHEN IT HAPPENED THAT IT HURT A
LOT OF REPUBLICANS RUNNING IN
CALIFORNIA IN THE HOUSE RACES
AND HURT A LOT OF REPUBLICANS
RUNNING IN NEW YORK STATE IN THE
HOUSE RACES.
HOUSE RACES. YOU HEARD PEOPLE IN CALIFORNIA
TALKING ABOUT IT.
MY GOSH, THAT’S WHERE A LOT OF
THOSE SEATS WERE PICKED UP AT
THE END OF THE DAY.
IN ALL OF THOSE CLOSE RACES, IT
HAD TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
I’M JUST CURIOUS, WHAT’S YOUR
RESPONSE TO "THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL" EDITORIAL YESTERDAY
THAT A LOT OF THOSE BLUFE STATES
HAVE EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH TAX
RATES BECAUSE THEY’VE BEEN
PURSUING LIBERAL POLICIES FOR
YEARS AND YEARS AND IT’S NOT THE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S JOB TO BAIL
THEM OUT?
THEM OUT? WHAT’S THE RESPONSE TO THAT?
>> I UNDERSTAND THE ARGUMENT.
THEY ARE HIGH-TAX STATES.
GOVERNOR CUOMO SAID YOU CAN’T
JUST KEEP TAXING WEALTHY PEOPLE
OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
THERE’S SOMETHING LIKE 1% OF THE
RESIDENTS OF NEW YORK PAY
SOMETHING LIKE 45% OF THE INCOME
TAXES.
TAXES. SO YOU RUN THAT RISK.
BUT THERE’S A COUPLE OTHER
POINTS TO BE MADE.
FIRST, YOU COULD ARGUE THAT THE
STATE -- WITHOUT THE STATE AND
LOCAL TAX DEDUCTION, IT’S KIND
OF A FORM OF DOUBLE TAXATION.
YOU’RE TAXED ONCE BY THE
GOVERNMENT, ONCE BY THE STATE
AND YOU DON’T GET ANY CREDIT FOR
HAVING PAID TO THE STATE.
AND THE SECOND ARGUMENT IS THE
MOST PROSPEROUS STATES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, ARE
DISPROPORTIONATE LOSERS TO HOW
MUCH MONEY IS ALLOCATED.
SO THERE’S STILL A BIG TRANSFER
OF FEDERAL INCOME IN EFFECT FROM
NEW YORK TO PLACES LIKE
MISSISSIPPI OR ALABAMA AND
PLACES LOOK THAT.
SO THERE’S A LOT OF PUTS AND
TAKES IN OUR FISCAL POLICY AND
IN OUR TAX CODE AND I’M NOT SURE
THAT -- I’M NOT SURE THAT THIS
IS PARTICULARLY FAIR.
AND REMEMBER ONE OTHER THING,
THIS WAS DONE, ONE, TO PUNISH
THE BLUE SAYS WHO HADN’T VOTED
FOR REPUBLICANS AND, TWO, TO
FIND REVENUE TO PAY FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUAL TAX CULTS YOU
REFERRED TO AT THE BEGINNING,
WHICH GO DISPROPORTIONATELY TO
THE RICH.
THE RICH. >> JONATHAN LEMIRE, THIS IS PART
OF ANOTHER UNDERLYING PROBLEM
FOR DEMOCRATS, AND IT HAS TO DO
WITH, AGAIN, HOW GEOGRAPHICALLY
DIVIDED THE COUNTRY IS.
THE DEMOCRATS OBVIOUSLY VERY
STRONG ON THE COAST BUT FOR THE
MOST PART WEAK ONCE YOU GO WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER ALL THE WAY
OUT TO, YOU KNOW, NEVADA.
IT SEEMS, AGAIN, WHILE EVERYBODY
IS FOCUSING ON DONALD TRUMP,
DEMOCRATS HAVE GOT TO FIGURE OUT
HOW TO START WINNING SENATE
RACES AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF
AMERICA BECAUSE UNTIL THEY DO
THAT, EVERYBODY JUDGE THAT IS
APPOINTED TO THE SUPREME COURT
IS GOING TO BE A CONSERVATIVE.
AGAIN, WE’VE GOT CLAIRE
McCASKILL ON AT 7:00 TO TALK
ABOUT THIS.
ABOUT THIS. THIS IS A PARTY, DON’T YOU THINK
THAT, DESPERATELY NEEDS TO
FIGURE OUT HOW TO START WINNING
IN THE MIDDLE OF AMERICA AGAIN.
>> I THINK THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT.
WE SEE HOW DIVIDED THIS COUNTRY
IS GEOGRAPHICALLY, HOW POLARIZED
IT IS AND DEMOCRATS DO RUN A
RISK OF BECOMING SIMPLY THE
PARTY OF THE COASTAL STATES,
WHERE THE BIG POPULATION CENTERS
ARE.
ARE. THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTION IN THE
MIDWEST, CHICAGO, MAKING
ILLINOIS A BLUE STATE.
THAT’S WHY FOR DEMOCRATS THERE
IS SOME HEAT AND INTEREST IN
SOME OF THE MORE MIDWEST
CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT, AMY
KLOBUCHAR AND SHE VERY
SPECIFICALLY MADE HER PITCH OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SHE STOOD THERE
IN THE SNOW SAYING I’M GOING TO
BE THE MIDWEST CANDIDATE, THIS
ELECTION IN 2016 WAS LOST IN
THESE STATES, IT WAS LOST IN
PENNSYLVANIA, IT WAS LOST IN
MICHIGAN, IT WAS LOST IN
WISCONSIN AND SHE EVEN MADE A
JOKE SAYING HOW SHE WOULD
CAMPAIGN IN WISCONSIN, WHICH OF
COURSE HILLARY CLINTON FAMOUSLY
DID NOT IN THE STRETCH RUN OF
THE CAMPAIGN.
THE CAMPAIGN. I THINK THERE IS SOME
RECOGNITION AT LEAST IN CERTAIN
QUARTERS OF THE PARTY THAT THEY
WIN MORE LOCAL RACES IN STATES
LIKE THESE, WIN SENATE RACES SO
THEY HAVE THE ABILITY TO HELP
SHAPE THE JUDICIARY, WHICH RIGHT
NOW OF COURSE MITCH McCONNELL
AND DONALD TRUMP IS ARGUABLY
THEIR MOST BIGGEST
ACCOMPLISHMENT IS BRINGING IN
CONSERVATIVE JUDGE AFTER
CONSERVATIVE JUDGE AFTER
CONSERVATIVE JUDGE ON TO THE
COURT.
COURT. >> WE’LL TALK 2020.