We have a top rated poll.
A rated poll which says that Trump would crush Biden in 2024 and DeSantis would crush Biden
in 2024.
We're going to look at the poll.
Many of my right wing friends wrote to me over the weekend and said, David, you will
never recover this poll.
Does that sound like me?
Does that sound like something I would do?
Just ignore a poll because the numbers don't coincide with I guess, what I would like the
numbers to say, which I would like the numbers to say.
Nobody's going to be so stupid that they're going to fall for voting for Trump again.
I thought I would like the numbers to say many of the numbers don't say that.
So let's look at this, this new poll and then look at some caveats.
Biden faces broad negative ratings at the start of campaign post ABC poll finds.
And indeed, we don't have to look at every aspect of the poll.
But when we look at the FiveThirtyEight compilation of recent polls and please, there's these
people in the audience who will write to me and say, David, why do you use left wing FiveThirtyEight
to look at polls?
FiveThirtyEight isn't doing their own polls.
FiveThirtyEight just aggregates polls.
So you can look at the polls and judge for yourself the deal with the polls.
Okay.
ABC News Washington Post poll.
Among registered voters, Biden losing to De Santos by six.
That is no longer a statistical dead heat.
There is a caveat, and I'll get to it in a moment.
Among all adults, DeSantis leading Biden by even more.
Seven.
What about Biden versus Trump?
Well, among registered voters, Trump leads Biden by six.
The exact same lead that DeSantis has.
And then if you look instead at an all adults rather than just registered voters, Trump
leads Biden by seven.
The exact same lead that Ron DeSantis has over Biden.
So any time we get one poll, we usually want to do three things actually listen it.
Let's be thorough.
Okay.
It's a monday.
We can be a little more thorough.
We want to do four things.
Number one, is this a Well-rated poll?
Or is this a toilet trash poll?
This is this is a WELL-RATED poll, A rating ABC News, Washington Post.
Generally speaking, these polls are trustworthy.
Second question is there something about the timing of what is being asked about that would
make all polling about this question less accurate?
Well, I don't know the answer to that.
You can make the case it's too early to do general election polling because it's only
May of the year before.
But the the important thing is if it's too early, it's equally too early for any pollsters.
So we can compare this poll to other polls.
That's the second question.
Is there something about the timing or in particular that would make this a bad time
to ask about this?
Number three, are there many undecideds where you have a lot of blanks in the polling?
And the answer is in this poll we do.
When DeSantis leads Biden 44 to 38, that means 18% of people did not choose either of them.
They either said unsure and either don't know.
Too early to say.
That's a lot of people because the margin is only six, so an 18% aren't even there.
That's a that's a question.
And then with Biden, Trump, 16% aren't in there.
At 3945, you've got 16% of the electorate.
These elections come down to somewhere between one and five points in general.
So, yes, that is a big, big caveat.
A lot of people were not forced into making a choice here.
They could say, I'm just not sure yet.
I don't know someone else.
And then the fourth.
Question in general, when we look at polling, as are these polls, is this poll an outlier
compared to others?
And it sort of is.
If you look at other polling, for example, the B-plus rated YouGov poll that was done
just a day before, the one I just told you about.
That one has Biden leading DeSantis and Biden tied with Trump.
So the most important message here is whatever your view on whether you gov should be a B-plus
or a B-minus poll or whether the ABC News poll was, you know, done at 3 a.m. and people
were too tired to respond accurately.
Whatever you want to come up with, with any of these polls, the message here needs to
be it is not at all obvious that Joe Biden can defeat DeSantis or Trump in reelection.
That's what we need to be screaming from the rooftops.
And that needs to be the message now.
One bit of good news from this is that DeSantis numbers against Biden are good.
And let me tell you why that's good news.
I'll explain what I mean.
DeSantis has been crumbling in Republican primary polls and he had this bizarre, you
know, where he was asked a question and he he grinned and was like a bobblehead.
He was massively triggered when asked about Trump recently.
And we'll have more clips of DeSantis later today.
He just doesn't seem to be able to handle it.
Republican donors are bailing on DeSantis billionaire, saying this guy doesn't have
what it takes.
And so DeSantis, it's not clear whether DeSantis will or won't announce.
I believe it is better for the eventual Democratic nominee, likely Joe Biden, for DeSantis and
Trump to have a really long and a really ugly primary.
I believe that that will weaken them.
I don't believe this.
Well, whoever comes out will be stronger because of the fight.
No, I believe that many will be turned off by how ugly DeSantis v Trump is likely to
get, and hopefully DeSantis will be encouraged to run even if he's not doing so well in the
Republican primary polls because he sees, Hey, if somehow I could get on the ballot
in November of 24, I have a really good shot at defeating Joe Biden.
His ego may not allow him to get away from running when he sees those poll results.
That's the one good bit of news I can find of them.
The really disturbing news is this is a country who is so disconnected from fact empiricism,
common sense, reality, sanity to some degree that they genuinely might.
There's tens of millions of people who, if they get the chance, they'll put Trump in
the Oval Office or DeSantis in the Oval Office.
And that should really scare us.
We'll have all of these stories on our YouTube channel.
Go to YouTube.com, forward, slash the David Pacman show, help us get to 2 million subscribers
on YouTube.
We'll take a quick break and be right back.