I'm W A9 Weather watch
meteorologist Topper shut.
We are tracking Fiona approaching a Bermuda
still as a category four storm winds 1:30.
When we say the winds are 130,
that's sustained winds. Gus or to 160.
It's moving off to the North NE at 16.
It's about 340 miles from Bermuda.
Now, as we roll through overnight,
it gets pretty close to Bermuda
around midnight on Friday.
Good news is Hurricane Center
weakens it to a category 3.
The other good news is it's pretty far West.
It tracks pretty far West now.
That said, tropical storm force winds extend
out from the center of about 200 miles.
So certainly Bermuda is going to have
some tropical storm force winds and they
are under hurricane warning at this hour.
Then it moves.
Back to the north and then almost do north
and look at this by Saturday morning.
Still a category three with winds,
with winds, you know,
as much as one or 20 mph as it moves
into Nova Scotia just to the West of St.
John's.
And even as it becomes a cold core storm,
it could still pack hurricane winds until
Saturday night at 9:00 o'clock, that is.
That's kind of crazy.
That's going to cause some problems in
some of the Canadian Maritimes, no doubt.
OK, so there is the hurricane warning for
Bermuda, and we'll pan up to the north.
And now we have hurricane watches and
tropical storm watches in effect for much.
Of of Canada,
and that includes New Brunswick,
parts of Nova Scotia as we get
into the weekend.
All right now.
Let's talk about the other storm we
talked about yesterday this could become.
Her mean.
And here is a spaghetti plot of her
mean and a couple things to notice.
Yeah, as usual, you know,
pretty close to development in 24 hours out.
They're all compact, so they're pretty,
pretty much in agreement confluence.
But then, you know,
you get out to four or five days
or seven days and you know,
one model has it going east of Miami,
another model has it going over Cancun.
That's a pretty big difference.
So take away here is we're pretty
confident Herman is going to develop and
probably become a pretty strong hurricane.
What?
We don't know just yet is exactly
the path of the storm.
So here are the models.
So the red is European and the yellow is the
American GFS and already you see by Monday,
they're not that close,
OK.
The Europeans taking over Canada as it begins
to pull it back to the north and the east.
The GFS is taking a kind of in between Cancun
and Cuba and bring it in the Gulf of Mexico.
This is now Tuesday.
Now it's moving almost due N this
is now moving across southern
Florida and we move it again.
Into Wednesday.
So now European says,
OK,
now it's back in the Atlantic and it should
go out to sea.
But no, GFS says not at all.
This is going to be a pretty
big storm and look what happens.
We get in to say Thursday drifts
it off to the north and the east.
And in the meantime,
European does take the storm offshore.
We'll cause some big currents for
us if it takes the European track
and then we get into, you know,
a Thursday night still a big storm in
the Gulf of Mexico but hasn't made.
Handball, yeah, just kind of sit and
spinning in the Gulf of Mexico, so.
Those are wildly different.
You know approaches to this storm,
so we will certainly watch it.
But again, the take away is.
Looks like it's gonna develop.
Looks like it's gonna become
a pretty big storm.
The details are in the track
and this also details are in
what effect it could have on us.
If it takes this track,
it could have an effect on us either
either in severe weather or just plain
old rain if it takes the European track.
We're going to be dry,
just some rough surf at the beach.
That's it.
OK, so we are looking at a category
four storm for Fiona right now.
Winds are 130, category four is 130 to 156.
That is the the criterion now.
Name so we haven't hit Herman Hermine yet,
but we could Alex, Bonnie,
Colin all tropical storms
Danielle Cat 1 Earl Cat two,
Fiona already a cat 3.
Cat 4 rather and Gaston
only was a cat one as well,
so we'll watch and see if we
don't have her mean in the next.
48 hours or so.
Again, here's the forecast.
I mean you know 14 to 20 named storms.
Of those six to 10 become hurricanes.
Of those three to five become major
hurricanes with winds 111 or higher.
We've got a ways to go.
I mean Fiona is our first major hurricane
of the of the season already now yes,
we are in the kind of the teeth of the
season if you will, not much happens.
June, July, August, OK,
29% September, 36% October.
You know we still have some
activity but only 19%.
Developed in October,
so takeaways now Fiona will affect
Bermuda late tonight, early,
early Friday morning pre dawn hours.
Another take away is we're going to
be tracking a storm in the Gulf of
Mexico late in the weekend or early
next week and she will be called her mean.