Hey everybody, ABC 10
meteorologist Brendan Minchev here.
We're going to have a winter storm update.
We're gonna talk about the rest of
this weekend, and at the end we'll
squeeze in a little drought too.
I know it's been a while since
we talked about a drought update,
full length video,
but we'll squeeze a little drop talk in here.
Looking at the precipitation calendar
for this year, every day except one.
That was January 12th.
We've recorded at least a few
drops in the bucket so far,
not counting what we've seen
on January 14th so far.
Over 5 1/2 inches in downtown Sacramento,
the average to date.
About 1.7 inches and that's just to date.
Again, so far this is an unofficial number,
but so far we've seen already 1/4 of
an inch of rain and it is not even
10:00 o'clock in the morning just yet.
As of the recording of this video,
still lots of rain to come.
Take a look at radar this morning,
you can see where that heavy rain is
and there's more of that heavy rain to
come and more thunderstorms as well.
To for today, Saturday,
everywhere in that lighter green is
that low risk general risk for thunderstorms,
darker green that level 1.
Marginal risk,
so a little bit better chance
for the Fresno area,
but also towards Modesto as well.
So in the San Joaquin Valley,
mostly South of our area but thunderstorms
possible everywhere that is in a color today.
The main threat will be the heavy
downpours that will be associated
with these thunderstorms,
some lightning as well.
Those are the two main threats,
some gusty winds potentially with
some of them and then even a few
of these storms could have some
small hail and even a funnel cloud.
So we'll keep an eye on those
things as the day wears on.
So be sure to stay weather aware.
And be with ABC 10 for the very latest
as this storm makes its way through,
taking a look at futurecast through
the morning hours as the cold front
starts to push in just ahead of it,
that's where some of that really
heavy heavy rain will be.
That's where some of those first
thunderstorms might make an appearance.
And then through the afternoon hours,
you can see those dots there
kind of spotty Ness there.
Those are thunderstorms that do look
to pop up across the valley from
Yuba City to the South basically.
Although everywhere in Northern
California could see a thunderstorm today,
if you do see a thunderstorm,
you're going to get higher.
Rainfall amounts because of how fast
that rain, how heavy that rain will be,
that's associated with that storm
through the rest of the evening.
Saturday still potentially some
thunderstorms through the evening hours,
but then overnight things really
do start to taper off.
Some showers,
very spotty,
both rain and snow for
early Sunday morning kind of
continues off and on through the
lunchtime hours.
Snow picks up again in the afternoon,
and then our next system
arrives Sunday into Monday,
and that's where we'll see yet
again some more heavy rain.
So we do have that level
1 marginal risk for parts.
Of the San Joaquin Valley
for thunderstorms today,
we also have a level one level 2 risk,
marginal and slight, for excessive rainfall.
This is not associated
necessarily with thunderstorms,
but just with all the rain that we're seeing.
So flash flooding everywhere
in the shaded colors,
which is all of Northern California,
is something we'll be watching for today.
There is a flood advisory
until 10:00 PM tonight.
That's 10:00 PM on Saturday night,
everywhere in green.
That includes Sacramento
Stockton out towards Fairfield,
up towards Yuba City Tico,
Red Bluff and Redding as well.
So minor.
Flooding,
low lying and poor drainage areas,
some roadway ponding as well.
Already this morning being told that
we are seeing ponding on the roadways,
some standing water especially for
instance on US 50 on those innermost lanes,
so the leftmost lanes,
we are seeing some of that ponding
already and that's expected to
continue really all day long today
because of the rain that we're
going to be seeing and the fact
that everything is already wet.
So there's not a lot of soaking,
soaking in that's going on
because again everything is wet,
the ground is wet,
really can't hold a lot more water.
So it just kind of standing there on top.
Very slow to drain flood watch from
10:00 AM Saturday until Sunday morning.
So in addition to the flood advisory,
still dealing with that flood watch,
all of the same things we've
been talking about literally
since the start of the new year,
excessive runoff, urban flooding,
flooding of rivers, creeks,
streams, low lying areas,
ponding on the roadways and flooding
of some low water crossings.
Again,
same stuff that we've been talking
about since the start of the new year.
Looking at the model rainfall totals
they've they've come down a little bit.
Looking at between about two and
three inches is pretty good agreement
there that we're going to be.
Even in the one inch range potentially
with some of these storms,
even as we work through towards Tuesday,
Wednesday,
that's because the track of the Monday
storm is shifting a little bit further South.
So still time for that to change.
We'll still get rain on Monday,
but potentially Stockton
Modesto to the South,
we'll see the heavier rain as opposed
to Stockton Modesto to the north.
Winter storm warning from
now until Monday evening,
everywhere in pink heavy Snow,
3 to 6 feet of it above 4500 feet.
Expected 55 to 80 mile per hour.
Wind gusts.
Whiteout conditions are likely
difficult to impossible travel,
so I know it's a holiday weekend.
Lots of people trying to
get up to the Sierra,
but if you don't have to travel,
don't.
The window of opportunity to
travel was yesterday morning.
Friday morning. At this point,
if you're not up there already,
I would recommend not going
because of how difficult it is.
Chain controls are active on both.
50 and 80 lots of snow.
We've already seen a lot of spinouts and
white out conditions and as the snow
continues to fall in the wind picks up
this morning and through the afternoon,
it's only really going to get worse.
We're also looking at avalanche
dangers and we've seen some ski
lift closures already because of
the wins that we've been seeing.
So if you are headed up there,
just keep in mind very,
very difficult travel impacts up there,
extreme in fact is what the winter
Storm Severity Index is saying,
does extreme impacts everywhere
in purple for 8050.
And everywhere in between.
In terms of snowfall amounts,
we did talk about that 3 to 6 foot
range and we'll see that here from the
model data that follows exactly right there,
three to six feet heaviest stuff
potentially from about four to the South.
So Bear Valley to the S
Kirkwood to the South,
that's where we're looking at.
But we've already seen a lot of snowfall
anywhere from 15 inches to a little
bit more in fact as of this morning,
which is a little bit above that
forecast the what we're looking
at yesterday before the storm.
So this is going to be a big time snow event
and it will be pretty low as well at times.
For most of the weekend that snow level
is going to be between 45155 hundred feet.
But for Monday morning and for the first half
at least the first half of the day on Monday,
that Snow will really looks to
drop as that next system arrives,
bringing more snow and cooler
temperatures to the Sierra.
In fact,
the snow level could get down
towards about 3500 feet or so.
So again,
it will be relatively low compared
to some of the storms that we've
seen recently in terms of snowfall.
Because of that,
not just because of the low snow,
but because of all the snow
that we're seeing in the wind,
we do have an avalanche.
Morning from now until Sunday morning,
everywhere you see in red.
So again this is big time Winter
Storm event too.
We talked a lot about Valley impacts,
but definitely major impacts
up in this year as well.
Wind advisory from now until 6:00 PM
on Saturday, very dynamic system,
lots of different things going on right now,
some damaging winds gusting 45 to 55 mph.
So bring in those loose objects.
Power outages are possible
if we see some downed trees,
broken tree limbs, that kind of thing.
Wet grounds,
again we've talked about
everything is soaked,
so the wet grounds are
going to allow those trees.
Tip over easily as that water table
is really literally right at those
roots right below the surface.
Taking a look at the future wind gusts,
if you're watching this video
in the afternoon, evening,
Saturday, we're likely already
done with the strongest winds.
But for the morning hours,
you do see those wind gusts
picking up 35 to 45 mph.
This is Saturday morning at
10:00 AM and that's because
that cold front is approaching.
So that's where going to see those
strongest winds through the morning hours.
It'll be breezy and a little gusty
through the rest of the afternoon
and into the evening as well,
even in the valley.
So keep that in mind.
In the Sierra,
it's going to last a little bit longer
through the late evening in terms of.
Those wind gusts and then Sunday just
generally breezy in the valley and
generally gusty with those winter storms
that we typically see up in the Sierra.
Still looking tomorrow at about 50
mile an hour wind gusts in the Sierra.
58 in Sacramento today,
57 grow 57 stocks and 56 in Modesto.
51 Jackson, 51 in Angels Camp,
57 in Fairfield for this
Saturday rain and Thunder,
we talked about that those thunderstorms,
we actually really could see
several thunderstorms in the valley.
So again, keep an eye on the sky,
be weather aware today.
However,
the light at the end of the tunnel is near.
We finally can see out the other side of
this rainy pattern that we've been in.
Here's what it looks like right
now with that high pressure system
right really over top of Hawaii.
And you can see the atmospheric river
here represented by those arrows.
So here's this system coming
in today and there's the next
one that comes in on Monday,
bringing that atmospheric river
moisture right into Northern California.
The key is this high pressure
is finally going to move.
You're going to see it move up as we
work through this coming work week and
then by the time we get to the end of it.
Build then and it just really
parks off the coast of California.
You can see California here and
there's that high pressure,
this serves as a blocking high.
So you see that moisture now has to ride
up the high up into British Columbia.
And any systems that come in
either also have to ride the Ridge
over top or form in the Alberta,
Alberta, British Columbia area,
the Canadian Rockies and drop on in.
And those are typically relatively
dry compared to the atmospheric
river systems we've been seeing.
So as long as it's high pressure is
sitting here, which it does look to do.
Through at least the end of January,
as long as it's sitting there,
we're going to be pretty dry.
We're not going to see any of
those atmospheric river storms,
although some of these systems that
look to drop in could bring a little
bit of some shower chances and
definitely snow chance into the Sierra.
But generally nothing like what
we've seen basically since Christmas
with that pattern.
It's just being wide open for that river.
Now we're finally seeing that blocking
high building back in and confirmation
of that and here's the six to 10 day
climate outlook from the National
Forecasting Center January 19th through
the 23rd you can see very likely drier.
In basically all of California,
so a nice little break.
The question is how long does it last.
There's already some signs that
we could see that blocking high
pressure retreat yet again as the
calendar flips over to February.
So still a ways out, few weeks away,
things to keep an eye on.
I promised we talk about some drought.
So let's do it.
We've seen quite a bit of improvement.
This is the latest monitor.
You can see that exceptional
drought category is all gone.
The extreme drought,
very little of it left for the most part.
We're in that moderate to severe drought,
the levels.
Level one and two categories here.
And you can see the only,
the only severe drop that's left is right
up here on the tip of the California,
Oregon border and that is it for
the rest of the state again in those
moderate to severe drought categories.
So we've made a lot of improvement on
the map, again, not very much red at all.
And that exceptional drought
has been gone in the San Joaquin
Valley for a couple of weeks now.
And that is some very good news just
comparing it to the start of the water year.
Here's what it looked like and
here's what it looks like now.
Again, really,
really nice improvement and we'll
hopefully see this continue to get better.
I would expect the next map to look
a little bit better as well because
of all the rain that we've seen.
The data cuts off on Tuesday.
We've seen a lot of rain since Tuesday.
So again,
that map is going to look even a
little bit better this coming week,
even though the rain is going
to stop for a little bit,
still plenty of time left in the
water year or in a rainy season,
I should definitely say,
as well as to help fill reservoirs
and improve the drought.
Shasta average day, 76%.
Capacity at 47% Oroville average to date,
95%,
really starting to make some
nice progress here,
but the capacity still only
right around that 50% range.
Folsom much shallower and much smaller.
Reservoir average today is 122%,
capacity at 73% and that's why they're
letting out some of that water
because with all the storms coming
in and with the snow melt and we
can't be releasing water from Folsom
while everything is already running
high and it's continuing to rain.
That's why we are seeing some of
those releases from Folsom right now.
But we've made a lot of improvements.
Still a ways to go on the big ones up North,
Shasta and Oroville, but again,
some nice improvement over the next 10 days.
We finally see a difference here,
only three rain icons and the rest
are either clouds or sunshine.
So again, that is some nice improvement.
We'll get a nice break here as we start
to approach the tail end of January,
still midway through the month,
but as we get deeper into the month
and closer to February, again,
things still look to stay dry.
Sunny for the most part,
but the question is how long?
Does that blocking high hold?
There's signs that may not
be there very long.
We'll be back to a rainy
pattern sometime in February.
But at the very least, we'll have a
couple of weeks here to help dry out,
dig out a little bit, make some repairs,
make some improvements,
clean up and that is some good news.
Be sure to stay with ABC 10 for the
very latest on news and weather
as we finish off our rainy period.