Cathie Wood says Bitcoin's going to hit a million dollars in this decade.
Sounds unbelievable, right?
Well, today, we're going to show you a scenario that could lead to the Bitcoin supercycle
everybody's been hoping and dreaming for.
It could lead to Bitcoin hitting a million bucks.
Let's get it!
Hey, guys! Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
My name is Ben.
Today, we're going to be discussing the Bitcoin supercycle
everybody's been wanting and hoping and dreaming for for the last 10 years.
Will this be the cycle that we'll see it?
Or will we continue to see diminished returns?
We're going to lay out a very interesting scenario for you here.
Now, it's weird, right?
Everybody's been talking about bear market, and certainly it's been a bear market.
They've been talking about recession.
They've been talking about Bitcoin to zero,
stock markets are going to plunge,
yet Bitcoin has been going up,
and the stock market has been kind of sideways and going down,
but, recently, it started to break out.
So, now, we've even got MarketWatch talking about
"Are we in a new bull market for stocks?"
Now, if you watch my channel, you know I don't believe in correlation
between Bitcoin and the stock market.
Bitcoin, for instance, in this bear market, has done what it's always done
regardless of what the stock market has been doing.
However, the stock market is supercharging fuel for Bitcoin bull runs.
It helps.
It supercharges it.
So if we're at the very beginning of a new bull run in stocks,
think about what that can mean for Bitcoin.
So let's go ahead here now and check out
what this guy, Noah Blackstein, has to say about the markets.
How are you feeling about things overall at this point?
You know, I've been doing this for a long time, Becky.
Typically, near the end--
whether it's in 2002 or even in 2009,
the start of a new bull market usually starts off with a significant rally
in stuff that was beaten up the most.
That's probably what we're seeing now.
This has been really a bear market led by inflation, certainly,
but, more recently, by Fed policy and aggressive rate hikes.
And so, you know, we're coming to the end of that.
We'll see the damage done to the economy.
I think the jobs report should alleviate some concern anyway
in the first half of this year that there's a recession coming.
Now, very interesting here as he says at the end,
but there still could be a recession coming.
Well, let's check out what the Fed is doing to stop that.
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It might be time to get a girlfriend.
You might win her over with one of our Bitcoin Valentine's Day shirts.
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See, it's like mining, like Bitcoin mi--
don't tell her that.
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And also big shout-out to DTEN whiteboards.
They're the ones who hooked us up with these great beautiful whiteboards.
So you guys can check out that link down below in the description as well.
I know you guys love these videos.
Check this out. This is from February 4.
Now, this whole idea of this is the Fed threading the needle.
The FOMC voted unanimously to raise rates by 0.25% on Wednesday,
the lowest raise that we've seen over the last year.
This hike shouldn't have surprised anyone
as the market had reached an overwhelming consensus
that the Fed would raise by this magnitude.
Why are people thinking that?
Well, Jerome Powell said it. That might be why.
Generally, he has gone with whatever he has said.
According to Caleb here,
he says, "Powell's comments were neither hawkish nor dovish.
However, we are unequivocally in the tail end of the hiking cycle."
This doesn't seem to be the popular narrative.
I told you I believe they would stop raising back in December.
They have continued on with the raise, but, in December, things dramatically changed.
We did nail that one.
While there is still more progress yet to be desired,
Powell and the Fed are likely pleased
with the ongoing direction and pace of inflation dynamics.
Markets are growing increasingly confident about the future path of monetary policy,
even if that simply means the Fed is getting close to keeping the federal funds rate stable,
aka the notorious "pause."
Now, we have Janet "Felon" Yellen saying you don't have a recession
when US employment is at a 53-year low.
Now, certainly, they've changed the definition of recession.
They do it as they please to make their numbers look better.
Joe Biden has done it as well.
But the fact is,
unemployment is at a 53-year low.
This is an outlier.
What does this mean?
This means that we have achieved the soft landing.
We've already landed, in my opinion.
We're not trying to achieve it as they're saying.
Now, does this mean we've seen the worst for maybe the housing market
or earnings reports or layoffs?
No, it doesn't mean that.
This would actually kind of indicate we will see more layoffs.
But it doesn't mean it's going to translate into recession.
We're going to talk about why that is here in a few moments.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she saw a path for avoiding a US recession,
with inflation coming down significantly and the economy remaining strong,
given the strength of the US labor market.
Job growth accelerated sharply in January,
with nonfarm payrolls up by 517,000 jobs,
unemployment dropping to a 53-and-a-half-year low of 3.4%.
Now, keep in mind,
over that 53 years,
they've changed the definition of unemployment.
There's all kinds of things that doesn't include.
The strength in hiring, which occurred despite layoffs in the tech sector,
reduced market expectations
that the US Federal Reserve was close to pausing its monetary policy tightening cycle.
Alright. So here we go on The Cryptonomist.
And this talks about Circle continues to increase its reserves for USDC.
I want to lay this out to you and then I want to give you some support
for what I believe we could see happening.
Now, you guys know me. I'm a traditional 4-year cycle fundamentalist.
So that means that in general, until we break the current pattern of these cycles,
we probably won't see anything different.
But here's a scenario where we could, of course.
Imagine this.
Now that we're going to basically start slowing down the hikes,
we're going to be pausing it at some point,
my prediction is,
we turn on the money printer back by the end of this year.
2024, we start reversing the rates.
What have we done?
We haven't felt max pain, guys.
We've not felt max pain in the overall market.
That's why people are saying maybe we won't get a recession.
We've been in pain.
But we haven't been in max pain.
And to get a true reversal,
you have to have max pain.
For Bitcoin, some people could argue we did see max pain
because the price went down to $15,000,
a number nobody last year thought it would get to.
We told you in January it could get all the way below 20.
People said we were crazy.
The fact is, is that people lost funds completely on these insolvent exchanges.
You will get a portion back at some point.
That feels like max pain to me.
The crypto contagion feels like max pain.
Of course, if the Bitcoin price got up to $100K without FTX shorting it,
then there's a strong chance $15K would have been the floor anyways
out of 85% drop that we normally see.
So imagine this.
This cycle has been totally normal.
We've hit almost all the numbers we thought we would hit.
And now we're heading back towards a bull market.
Now, it doesn't mean Bitcoin will be at all-time highs
or even at $40,000 by the end of this year.
We're certainly going to see some more dips,
including, by the way, we most likely are going to see a dip here.
This is the 2020 bull market. Okay?
Now, what happened in this bull market is we got this scam wick down here,
as you guys can see, from the pandemic.
But the more important thing to notice here is that the high in this market
leading up to the halving which occurred over here in May was $10,500.
So, what does that mean?
That means for us to go into a Bitcoin supercycle scenario,
we need to see Bitcoin above about 52% of its previous all-time high significantly.
This means we need to be looking at Bitcoin being around $50,000
sometime in the three months before the halving.
But we also have this chart here.
This here is what we know as the CME chart.
Now, this can tell you pretty much and predict where Bitcoin is going to go.
These gaps here?
Well, they fill 96% of the time.
The gap to watch here for a dip is here in between--
you can see the--
the low of this candle here was $20,460.
The top of this wick here was $19,995.
So somewhere between $19,995, $20,460,
we're going to get Bitcoin move down below this $19,995.
So you should certainly be expecting a dip like I was talking about earlier.
It doesn't mean we're off to the races.
But we've got to see Bitcoin get above those previous numbers.
That's how we know we could be heading towards a supercycle.
Now, it doesn't 100% define it
because, of course, in the last cycle, we were way ahead of the pace
where Bitcoin should have been and it slowed up over the market.
I believe FTX had a lot to do with shorting the market at the top this time
and preventing it from going to $100,000,
but we may make those gains up on the next cycle.
Now, Bitcoin has always worked off of what we call diminished returns,
which means every cycle we've seen the returns on Bitcoin to all-time highs
from previous all-time highs get smaller and smaller and smaller.
Will we see that reversal?
Now, I want to lay out to you the million-dollar question.
I don't believe we'll see a million dollars no matter what in the next Bitcoin cycle,
even if it's a supercycle.
We can see $500,000 to $600,000 potentially.
I'm not telling you we're going to get there.
My guess for what we're going to see is probably $120,000.
That would be--
$105,000 to $120,000 for Bitcoin.
Not a bad gain,
but that would be in line with the diminished returns.
That will probably be the bottom side of what we can expect.
But this here,
Circle.
Circle continues to increase reserves for USDC.
I believe that USDC will be the CBDC for United States of America.
Now, imagine three years from now.
We're heading back towards a Bitcoin bear market.
The price peaked.
It's starting to come down.
If it peaks higher, the pain is going to be immense.
Along with Bitcoin,
what we'll see is the stock market not be able to continue at the same clip either
because we didn't experience max pain.
We might get three years of upside here,
followed by a redo of what we just saw on the markets,
then right when it's at its lowest point and Bitcoin is back in the bear market,
here we have Circle coming to rescue it.
Circle creating a CBDC,
which a lot of people will think at the time it will be bearish
as USDC becomes the digital dollar.
What people fail to realize is this is going to increase the demand for the US dollar,
the US digital dollar across the world,
where now USDC will be able to be traded on stock exchanges, crypto exchanges,
any fiat on and off-ramps.
You're no longer having to put in physical money.
You're no longer having to use your debit card.
But your wallet that contains the CBDC, the wallet that contains USDC,
this will be the way that people around the world are now able to buy into the dollar
and start spending money in the digital economy like never before
in a uniform way across the world.
And that bullishness, well, that can lead us right into the next Bitcoin cycle
where we can see Bitcoin potentially by 2030 hit a million bucks.
Drop your comments down below. Let me know what you think.
Do you think this can happen? Do you think we're heading towards a supercycle?
I've given you the numbers and the mile markers to look at.
I want to know what you think.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.