In A Song of Ice and Fire, the Long Night was a dark time thousands of years ago when
winter lasted a generation. It’s said that during this time, there was no daylight, and
Others, riding dead horses and monstrous spiders, came from the North to destroy all living
things. We know the Long Night happened in Westeros, but it also affected the Rhoyne,
and the Further East, so it was probably worldwide. Melisandre says the Long Night
is coming again, bringing an apocalyptic “night that never ends”. It’s starting to
look like she might be right. Melisandre says the only hope is a hero named Azor Ahai.
People all over the world of ice and fire
have stories of the hero who ended the last Long Night. The Northerners say the “last
hero” joined with the children of the forest and won the Battle for the Dawn against the
Others. Descendants of the Rhoynar say a hero convinced their gods to bring back the
day with a secret song. The YiTish say a woman with a monkey’s tail restored the
sun. The Asshai’i name this hero Azor Ahai, and prophesy their rebirth to save the world
once more. The names Hyrkoon the Hero, Yin Tar, Neferion, and Eldric Shadowchaser are
also used. There’s also “the prince that was promised”. Some people think the “prince
that was promised” and Azor Ahai are separate figures, but there’s no good reason to think
this. Melisandre, Aemon Targaryen, and George R. R. Martin himself all talk as though Azor
Ahai and the “prince that was promised” are the same thing, and no one in A Song
of Ice and Fire has ever distinguished between the two. So “the prince that was promised”
and Azor Ahai reborn appear to be the same person. The “stallion who mounts the world”
may also be connected. He too is described as a “prince” , and is promised in prophecy.
Given the blurry overlap and similarity of these legends, it seems likely that they’re
all about the same person, the hero who saved the world from the Long Night, and is prophesied
to return, to save the world once more. We’ll call’m Azor Ahai because that’s the best
known name and the easiest to say. So what do we know about Azor Ahai? Melisandre
says Azor Ahai is prophesied to be born beneath a “bleeding star”, “amidst salt and
smoke”. We hear the same thing from Aemon Targaryen, from Benerro, the High red priest
of Volantis, and from Marwyn the Mage, who says he doesn’t trust prophecy. Rhaegar
Targaryen believed in these prophetic signs, and it seems likely that his wife Elia and
some other family members did as well. We’re told many times by many people that the star,
salt and smoke are signs of Azor Ahai, so it seems almost certain that they truly are.
According to Melisandre and Aemon, another sign is a red or burning sword, called Lightbringer,
which also appears in several legends. Sam Tarly suggests that the sword may simply be
a Valyrian steel sword. Melisandre says that Azor Ahai will draw the sword from fire. One
legend about the original Lightbringer says its creation required the sacrificial execution
of Azor Ahai’s wife, Nissa Nissa. As Davos speculates, it might be that Azor Ahai will
have to make some similar sacrifice, but that’s never said to be part of any prophecy,
so it might not be important. According to Melisandre, Aemon, and Benerro, Azor Ahai
has something to do with dragons. Melisandre specifically says that Azor Ahai is prophesied
“to wake dragons from stone”, which apparently requires the sacrifice of someone with king’s
blood. Since she’s the only person claiming this, and she admits that she sometimes misinterprets
prophecies, it seems possible that Melisandre is wrong about the stone dragons bit. But
all agree that Azor Ahai is associated with dragons, so that at least seems pretty solid.
Aemon implies that Azor Ahai must have Targaryen blood, and the Ghost of High Heart specifies
the line of Aerys and Rhaella. To quickly explain that – Ser Barristan says that Aerys
and Rhaella Targaryen married because a woods witch said that “the prince that was promised
would be born of their line”. Ser Barristan’s description of the woods witch matches the
description of the Ghost of High Heart, the mysterious old woman encountered by Arya with
the Brotherhood Without Banners. Not only are they both very short women who produce
prophecies, but they are both associated with the children of the forest, and they both
were close to someone named Jenny. So they almost certainly are the same person. And
the thing is – the Ghost of High Heart has proven the reliability of her prophecies by
making a lot of really impressive accurate predictions. Therefore, Barristan’s woods
witch, the Ghost of High Heart, is almost certainly correct in saying that Azor Ahai
must have the blood of Aerys and Rhaella Targaryen. A couple more things – both Aemon and Rhaegar
in a vision say “the dragon must have three heads”. Some people think this means Azor
Ahai is three people, but that’s not what the text suggests. What the three heads of
the dragon seems to mean is that Azor Ahai should have two companions who help’m out,
maybe ride dragons with them, whatever. Aemon says that he could have been one of
the three heads, if he wasn’t so old. This means that that the three heads are not special
prophesied figures, but can probably be any Targaryen, or anyone at all. The three heads
of the dragon may be a thing, but it’s not part of any known prophecy and it does not
mean three people are Azor Ahai. Finally, Rhaegar Targaryen, in a vision, says of the
“prince that was promised” that “His is the song of ice and fire”. Again, this
doesn’t seem to be part of any prophecy, and it’s very vague, but it’s probably
worth keeping in mind. So. We’ve got seven signs of Azor Ahai.
The star, the salt, the smoke, the sword, the sacrifice, the stone dragons, and the
blood. Azor Ahai is someone from the line of Aerys and Rhaella Targaryen, someone born
beneath a bleeding star, and amidst salt and smoke. They should have a burning sword, and
have something to do with dragons, maybe awakening stone dragons. Sacrifice might be involved
with the stone dragons or with the sword. The three heads of the dragon and the “song
of ice and fire” may also be involved somehow. To find Azor Ahai, we must find the person
who best fits this description. Melisandre says that Stannis Baratheon is
Azor Ahai, and she tries very hard to make him fit the seven signs. Like every character
alive during A Clash of Kings, Stannis is around to see the red comet that appears in
the sky and is named the “Bleeding Star” by Dany and the Dothraki. Not long after
the comet appears is the ceremony at Dragonstone where statues of the Seven are burned and
Stannis is proclaimed to be Azor Ahai. So this is a symbolic rebirth, of sorts, which
happens shortly after, if not under, a “bleeding star”. It happens amidst salt and smoke
– the salt of the ocean, the smoke of the burning gods. So Stannis has the star, smoke
and salt. At the same ceremony, he draws a sword from fire, and names it Lightbringer.
But as Jon points out, the sword’s not warm or hot as Lightbringer should be. Aemon says
“the sword is wrong”, and describes its light as an “empty glamor” – perhaps
what magic it has is another of Melisandre’s illusions. So as Sallador Saan says, “That
sword was not Lightbringer” . As for the sacrifice, Melisandre tries to get Stannis
to sacrifice someone with king’s blood in order to awaken stone dragons. So far, that
hasn’t happened – no sacrifice, no dragons. Stannis does have some Targaryen blood, but
not from Rhaella and Aerys, so he fails there too. That’s three out of seven signs. Stannis
also has no apparent connection to the “song of ice and fire”, or the three heads of
the dragon – unless maybe you want to argue that Stannis, Mel and Davos are three heads,
whatever than means. So all things considered, it looks like Stannis is not Azor Ahai. And
y’know – it wouldn’t fit the story anyway. Stannis may be the Mannis, but compared to
people like Dany and Jon, he’s no hero – Stannis is a harsh, bitter, unromantic man, not a
save-the-world-with-a-magic-sword kinda guy. He says as much himself. And come on, what
kind of champion of R’hllor sets himself on fire with his own burning sword? The fact
that we are led to believe that Stannis is Azor Ahai is a good reason not to believe
that he is Azor Ahai – why would George R. R. Martin create all this mystery and prophecy
only to tell us the answer at the start of the second book? As George himself has said,
prophecies should not be too literal and too easy. Melisandre has tried and failed to
make Stannis literally fulfil the Azor Ahai prophecy. As Aemon says, she has misread the
signs, she is deceiving herself because she wants to believe. The evidence strongly suggests
that Stannis Baratheon is not Azor Ahai. Aemon and Benerro both say that Daenerys Targaryen
is Azor Ahai . In the final chapter of Book 1, Daenerys sees the “Bleeding Star” appear,
walks into flames and, amidst smoke, is reborn as the mother of dragons, “stone
dragons” which she wakes from eggs. So straight away that perfectly fits the star, smoke and
stone dragons. The salt probably comes from salty smoky Dragonstone, where Dany was literally
born, if not from tears or sweat at the pyre. What about Lightbringer? You can argue that
Dany’s dragons are her fiery weapon. This is supported by Xaro Xhoan Daxos’ description
of Dany’s dragons as a “flaming sword”. And when you think about it, Azor Ahai saving
the world with dragons is a lot more believable than saving the world with one flaming sword
– right? Aemon says translation errors are a problem with this prophecy – thinking that
Lightbringer is a literal sword might be one of them. The awakening of the stone dragons,
the creation of Dany’s burning sword, requires two sacrifices – of Dany’s love, Drogo,
and of her stillborn son, Rhaego, who has the blood of Targaryen kings through Dany.
We know these deaths are related to birth of Dany's dragons because, as Dany reminds us
in the same chapter, “Only death can pay for life”. So this satisfies both kinds
of sacrifice – of a loved one, for a burning sword, like Nissa Nissa, and of king’s blood,
to awaken stone dragons, as Mel prophesies. So we’ve got the sacrifice, the sword, the
stone dragons, the star, the smoke, the salt, and we’ve got the blood, because Daenerys
is the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella Targaryen. That’s all seven signs, only the sword is
really questionable. The three heads of the dragon might relate to Dany’s three dragons
– three dragon-riders, maybe. She has no clear connection to the “song of ice and
fire”, but again the song and heads are vague and not part of prophecy anyway, so Daenerys
Targaryen fits everything we reliably know about Azor Ahai, and has both Aemon and Benerro
backing her. It also fits the story for Dany to be Azor Ahai. I mean, come on, she is “Daenerys
Stormborn”, “the widow of a Dothraki khal, a mother of dragons and a sacker of cities”,
she is “the Unburnt”, she is the “Breaker of Chains”, the “Queen of Meereen,
Queen of the Andals and the Rhoynar and the First Men”, “Lord of the Seven Kingdoms”,
“The fairest woman in the world” , she is “strong”, she is “fierce” , “the
fire is [hers]”... Don’t know how to put this, but she’s “kind of a big deal”.
George R. R. Martin has hyped up Dany all series, so if anyone’s gonna be the prophesied
saviour of the world, it’ll be her. She has the signs, it fits the story, Dany is
probably Azor Ahai. But there’s another strong candidate. Jon
Snow might be Azor Ahai. Of course, last we heard from him he’d been stabbed four times,
but he could be resurrected by Melisandre – we know red priests can do this from Beric
Dondarrion and Thoros of Myr. There’s evidence that Jon might warg into his direwolf Ghost
before returning to his body. We know wargs can do this, and that Jon is unknowingly a
powerful warg, from the Dance with Dragons Prologue. The idea is supported by a vision
that Melisandre has of Jon, in which he changes from a man, to a wolf, to a man again. Further,
Jon’s last word after being stabbed is “Ghost”. All this suggests that Jon will warg into
Ghost, then be reborn – a man once more. Now look at the passage where Jon is stabbed
– Jon’s wound is smoking, Bowen Marsh is crying salty tears, and Ser Patrick, whose
"distinctive" heraldry features stars, is bleeding. A lot. Each of these things is emphasised
right at Jon’s stabbing. The star, the smoke, the salt. And Jon brings up the “promised
prince, born in smoke and salt” in the same chapter as the stabbing. The star is a bit
dodgy, but can this really be a coincidence? Let’s look at the other signs. Jon does
have a pretty sweet sword, a Valyrian steel sword, but hardly Lightbringer. You could argue that
the Night’s Watch is his fiery weapon – their vow says “I am the sword in the darkness”,
and they’re a weapon against the Others, and Jon kinda sacrificed his love Ygritte
for them. So, maybe. But, again, it may be that the sign of the sword is a mistranslation
or misinterpretation of the sign of the dragons, in which case Jon might need one of Dany’s
dragons. Alternatively, Jon might wake a dragon from stone by discovering
his Targaryen parentage in the Winterfell crypts – there are some cool theories about
Rhaegar’s harp that could help here. Another is waking a dragon from within the Wall. But both of these are just future speculation.
For now, Jon has no dragon, probably no sword,
and probably no sacrifice, but these are things that could happen later. We’ve still got
two books coming. Now, if R+L=J is true, and it very probably is, Jon has the blood. That
would also literally make him the “prince that was promised” and would make him of
ice and fire. So Jon satisfies most of the signs of Azor Ahai. Less than Dany. But there’s
strong additional evidence that Jon is Azor Ahai. Melisandre says that when she tries
to see Azor Ahai in her flames, R’hllor shows her Snow, as in Jon Snow. This happens
repeatedly. Must be pretty frustrating for R’hllor, that Melisandre never makes the
connection, right? Also, Jon has a dream in which he wields a burning red sword against
the Others, at the Wall. He shouts about fire, and even slays the woman he loves with the
red sword. These are some pretty strong hints, right? So there’s a lot of evidence suggesting
that Jon Snow is Azor Ahai. And it would make narrative sense too. Jon clearly is someone
special, as indicated by his white direwolf and even his bastardy, which has always marked
him as someone who is different. He’s a heroic figure, brave, honourable, determined
to do what’s right. And he’s already fighting the Others, which is what Azor Ahai
does. It makes a lot of sense for Jon to be Azor Ahai.
So. Stannis is probably not Azor Ahai. The evidence points to Dany… and also to Jon. Looks like
they’re both Azor Ahai. The "song of ice and fire", right? But let’s look at other possibilities.
Could there be a third Azor Ahai? Aegon, if
he really is Aegon, has the blood, and apparently the star. Rhaegar also had the blood, and
was born amidst salt and smoke. Victarion has a burned, smoking hand. Davos was reborn
amidst salt and smoke. The Lightning Lord has a burning sword, Brienne has a red sword.
Tyrion makes a nice trio with Dany and Jon. Ramsay has the name Snow. Jamie could Nissa
Nissa Cersei, J-bear could Nissa Nissa Dany, Hot Pie bakes salty pies in smoky ovens, and
Pretty Pig is- is ham. You can find some connections and possibilities for almost any character,
but only Dany and Jon are strongly supported by evidence. Only Dany and Jon have
important signs like the blood, the star, salt and smoke. Only Dany and Jon have heaps
of foreshadowing, hints and visions. It would be bad storytelling to spend the whole series
focussing on Dany and Jon before going ‘heyy, by the way, this guy- this guy Aegon, or this guy, fuckin',
Ramsay Snow, he’s also a saviour of the world!’ It would also ruin the nice little
Song of Ice and Fire we’ve got going with Jon and Dany. So a third Azor Ahai is not
impossible, but it seems unlikely and there’s really no good reason to believe it.
Another argument you can make is that no one is Azor Ahai. The prophecy is wrong or irrelevant.
But it would be even worse than a third Azor Ahai to build up all this foreshadowing, all
these visions and hints, and then throw’em away and say they mean nothing. Azor Ahai
doesn’t have to be a perfect fairy tale hero who makes everything better. We know
prophecy’s a bitch, we know things are complicated – but with all this evidence, Azor Ahai
has to mean something. There are other objections and convoluted
complications that you could raise. But everything we currently know about Azor Ahai points to
two people – Jon and Dany. Dany fits the prophecy almost perfectly, Jon fits most of
it and has extra hints on top. Jon and Dany are the two main characters, together representing
ice and fire, the title of the series. Based on what we now know, the most reasonable conclusion
to come to is that Dany and Jon are Azor Ahai, and are prophesied to save the world from
a night that never ends.
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