>>> ONE THING WE KNOW, WE ARE LOOKING AT UNPRECEDENTED
ENTHUSIASM OR ANGER FOR BOTH
PARTIES.
PARTIES. ON THE SAME DAY, THOUSANDS BEGAN
TO LINE UP BEFORE SUNRISE TO
ATTEND A PRESIDENT TRUMP RALLY
WITH TED CRUZ IN HOUSTON.
THOUSANDS GATHERED TO CHEER ON
CRUZ’S OPPONENT BETO O’ROURKE.
THEY JOIN MORE THAN 5 MILLION
AMERICANS NATIONWIDE THAT
ALREADY VOTED, ALREADY VOTED IN
THIS YEAR’S MIDTERMS.
AND THAT SHOULD COME AS NO
SURPRISE WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
NEW NBC NEWS "THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL" POLL THAT FINDS THAT
65% OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
HAVE A HIGH INTEREST IN THIS
YEAR’S ELECTION.
YEAR’S ELECTION. THAT’S THE LARGEST NUMBER SINCE
2006.
2006. WHICH PARTY IS BENEFITTING MOST
FROM EARLY VOTING IS A QUESTION
WE NEED TO ANSWER.
TO HELP DO THAT, LET’S GO TO
MARK MURRAY, SENIOR POLITICAL
EDITOR FOR NBC NEWS.
MARK, WHEN I GO OUT AND TALK TO
VOTERS, I HEAR HEALTH CARE MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
THAT IS ANECDOTAL.
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS AND POLLING
SHOW YOU, WHAT ARE VOTERS CARING
MOSTLY ABOUT?
MOSTLY ABOUT? >> ACCORDING TO THE NBC, "THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL" POLL
YESTERDAY, THE ECONOMY AND JOBS
IS ISSUE NUMBER ONE, CLOSE
SECOND IS HEALTH CARE.
AND THERE’S AN INTERESTING
DIVIDE AS YOU MENTION.
DEMOCRATS ARE THE ONES TALKING
HEALTH CARE, REPUBLICANS ARE THE
ONES TALKING THE ECONOMY AND
JOBS.
JOBS. SOME OF THE OTHER ISSUES
DEMOCRATS ARE TALKING ABOUT, THE
MIDDLE CLASS, REPUBLICANS ARE
TALKING ABOUT IMMIGRATION.
BUT CLEARLY THIS KIND OF JOBS,
ECONOMY VERSUS HEALTH CARE IS
THE BIG ISSUES THAT ARE GOING ON
AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING PLAY OUT
IN ADS AND RACES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.
COUNTRY. >> WHO IS IT BENEFITTING MORE,
THE UP TICK IN ENTHUSIASM, THE
UP TICK IN EARLY VOTING?
>> WELL, ONE ON THE ENTHUSIASM,
WHAT YOU SEE NOW ARE TWO FIRED
UP POLITICAL PARTIES, AND
NORMALLY IN A MIDTERM
ENVIRONMENT, KATIE, YOU HAVE ONE
PARTY OUT OF POWER THAT’S FIRED
UP, THE PARTY IN POWER ISN’T.
THAT WAS THE DYNAMIC IN 2006.
THIS IS TWO FIRED UP SIDES.
IT ISN’T EVEN GOING TO BE 2016,
IT IS AN ELECTORATE WE HAVE
NEVER SEEN BEFORE.
ALL KINDS OF OUTCOMES ARE VERY
POSSIBLE.
POSSIBLE. AND AS YOU MENTION, HOW IS THAT
ENTHUSIASM PLAYING OUT IN SOME
EARLY VOTING, WE END UP HAVING
TEA LEAVES IN EARLY IMPORTANT
STATES LIKE FLORIDA, NEVADA, AND
ARIZONA, AND RIGHT NOW ACCORDING
TO NBC NEWS THE EARLY VOTE IN
PLACES LIKE ARIZONA AND FLORIDA
SEEMS TO BE BENEFITTING
REPUBLICANS.
REPUBLICANS. MORE REPUBLICANS ARE TURNING IN
BALLOTS, MORE DEMOCRATS TURNING
IN BALLOTS SO FAR IN NEVADA.
BUT NOT ONLY ARE THESE TEA
LEAVES, THEY’RE INCOMPLETE.
ONE OF THE REASONS WHY, A LOT OF
EARLY VOTING, ONES THAT
TRADITIONALLY BENEFIT
TRADITIONALLY BENEFIT REPUBLICANS ARE VOTE BY MAIL.
AND REPUBLICANS NORMALLY HAVE A
BIG ADVANTAGE THERE.
DEMOCRATS HAVE THE BIG ADVANTAGE
IN THE IN PERSON VOTING WHERE
YOU GO IN TO THE VOTING PLACE
AND CAST BALLOTS, AND THAT’S
ON-GOING.
ON-GOING. A PLACE LIKE FLORIDA HASN’T
STARTED THE STATEWIDE EARLY
VOTING YET, SO WE NEED TO CHECK
THE NUMBERS A COUPLE OF WEEKS
FROM NOW.
FROM NOW. THEN THERE’S ONE OTHER CAVEAT,
NO IDEA HOW THE INDEPENDENT
VOTES BREAK.
VOTES BREAK. SO THEY ARE TEA LEAVES, IT IS
FUN TO WATCH, BUT DON’T GIVE YOU
THE WHOLE PICTURE.
>> THEY DO NOT.
THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES, THIRD
THING WAS CHANGE IN WASHINGTON.
WHEN ECONOMY, JOBS, HEALTH CARE,
THEN CHANGE IN WASHINGTON, HOW
LARGE WAS PERCENTAGE THAT WANTED
A CHANGE IN WASHINGTON AND WHAT
DOES THAT SAY TO YOU?
>> THE POLL SHOWED REPUBLICANS
WITH A ONE POINT ADVANTAGE ON
THE QUESTION ON WHICH PARTY
BETTER HANDLES TRYING TO CHANGE
WASHINGTON.
WASHINGTON. THAT WAS A SURPRISE, GIVEN IT IS
REPUBLICANS THAT ARE IN CHARGE.
WE HAVE SEEN DEMOCRATS LEANING
IN TO HEALTH CARE, NOT TALKING
AS MUCH ABOUT A CULTURE OF
CORRUPTION OR THEIR OWN VERSION
OF DRAINING THE SWAMP, TRYING TO
BRING CHANGE.
BRING CHANGE. THEY WANT TO STICK TO POCKETBOOK
ISSUES, TALK HEALTH CARE.
ONE OF THE BIG REASONS WHY I
TALK TO DEMOCRATIC STRATEGISTS
AND THAT DO FOCUS GROUPS, THEY
BELIEVE VOTERS GET MORE
DEPRESSED THE MORE YOU TALK
ABOUT WASHINGTON AND DONALD
TRUMP, IN A WAY LEANING IN ON
HEALTH CARE IS SOMETHING YOU’RE
ABLE TO TALK ABOUT, AN ISSUE
THAT DOESN’T DEMORALIZE YOUR
BASE OR SEGMENT THE BASE THAT
DON’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE
PRESIDENT.
PRESIDENT. >> I’M GOING TO ASK YOU, YOU DID
SO MUCH PROGNOSTICATING,
FOLLOWING THE CLOSE CLOSELY,
WHEN YOU LOOK AT 2016 AND TODAY,
DO YOU FEEL THERE’S A BIG
DIFFERENCE, DOES IT FEEL THE
SAME TO YOU?
WHAT’S YOUR TAKE?
>> MY TAKE IS, KATIE, ONE,
ELECTIONS ARE ALWAYS
UNPREDICTABLE.
UNPREDICTABLE. ONE THING YOU CAN SAY, WHO HAS
THE ADVANTAGE, WHO WOULD YOU
RATHER BE.
RATHER BE. GOING INTO 2016, I WAS OF THE
MIND SET I WOULD RATHER BE
HILLARY CLINTON THAN DONALD
TRUMP.
TRUMP. HE ENDED UP WINNING, IT WAS
STILL A POSSIBILITY HE COULD
WIN.
WIN. GOING INTO 2018 FOR THE HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES, YOU WOULD
RATHER BE THE DEMOCRATS, BUT
THERE’S STILL A CHANCE THAT
REPUBLICANS CAN HOLD ONTO POWER
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
ONE OF THE GREAT THINGS ABOUT
ELECTIONS AND FOLLOWING THIS,
THERE ARE SO MANY DIFFERENT
POSSIBILITIES THAT CAN OCCUR.
BUT I THINK ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND IN 2016, USUALLY
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM IS WRONG, SO
I THINK WHAT WE SHOULD DO WITH
THIS UNPREDICTABLE ELECTORAL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECT THE