>>> THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK HAS BEEN AROUND SINCE THE COLD WAR, BUT
MANY STILL WONDER -- WHAT EXACTLY IS IT, WHY PAY ATTENTION
TO IT, AND IS IT STILL RELEVANT?
I SAT DOWN WITH JOSHUA GOLDSTEIN, A RESEARCH SCHOLAR IN
THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT UMASS AND PROFESSOR
EMERITUS AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY TO LEARN
MORE.
>> BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS AND IT WAS CREATED BY
SCIENTISTS WHO WORKED ON CREATING THE ATOM BOMB IN WORLD
WAR II AND THEN WANTED TO EDUCATE THE PUBLIC OF THE
DANGERS OF THE BOMB.
AND IT WAS SOMETHING ELSE ENTIRELY.
AND SOMETIME EARLY ON, THEY WANTED AN IMAGE TO CONVEY THE
URGENCY AND DANGER OF THE BOMB.
AND SOMEONE CAME UP WITH THIS CLOCK IDEA WITH THE HAND SET 7
MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT ORIGINALLY.
TIME'S A LITTLE BIT URGENT AND THIS IS A PROBLEM YOU REALLY
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO.
THEN A FEW YEARS LATER, THEY HAD THE IDEA TO WHEN BOTH THE UNITED
STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION MADE HYDROGEN BOMBS, ALL WAY BIGGER
NOW.
TO MAKE IT MORE URGENT BY SETTING THE HANDS CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT.
AND EVER SINCE THEN, THEY'VE BEEN SETTING THEM CLOSER FURTHER
AWAY FROM MID NIGHT.
WHEN THE COLD WAR ENDED AND THE DANGERS SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT,
THEY SET THE HANDS AT ABOUT QUARTER TO MIDNIGHT, BACK
FURTHER AWAY NOT AS WORRISOME.
AND AT THAT TIME, WE HAD, IN THE WORLD, ABOUT 30,000 NUCLEAR
WEAPONS ON EACH SIDE.
AND SINCE THEN, WE'VE GOTTEN RID OF THREE QUARTERS OF THEM.
PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE WE'VE DEESCALATED A LOT.
AND THEN IN 2007, THE ORGANIZATION DECIDED TO ADD
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT TO HUMANITY EQUAL TO WHAT NUCLEAR
WEAPONS ALWAYS HAS BEEN.
AND SO THEN THEY STARTED MOVING IT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AGAIN.
AND ALSO THEN IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, THE NUCLEAR WEAPON
SITUATION HAS BEEN GOING A LITTLE BIT IN REVERSE.
SO THEY KEEP SETTING THE HANDS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
RIGHT NOW, TWO MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT MEANING ALL HANDS ON
DECK.
>> THAT'S LIKE A NEW ABNORMAL.
AND THE LAST TIME IT WAS TWO MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT WAS DURING
THE COLD WAR IN 1953.
WHY THE MOVE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
A LOT OF TIMES WHEN PEOPLE HEAR THAT, THEY ARE GOING TO SAY THIS
IS JUST A POLITICAL BUNCH OF SCIENTISTS LUMPING THINGS
TOGETHER.
WHY SHOULD PEOPLE PAY ATTENTION TO IT?
>> THEY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS BECAUSE UNTIL WE
GET RID OF MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF THEM AND STABILIZE
THE WORLD AND TAKE CARE OF NORTH KOREA AND ALL THAT, THEY ARE
WORRISOME.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE DANGEROUS.
PEOPLE UNDERESTIMATE THE HARM THAT COULD COME FROM THEM.
AND CLIMATE CHANGE PEOPLE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT.
THAT'S A REAL THREAT THAT TIME IS RUNNING OUT AND WE URGENTLY
NEED TO TAKE VERY STRONG ACTION IN ORDER TO STAY WITHIN THE
TEMPERATURE LIMITS.
>> WHEN YOU SAY TIME IS RUNNING OUT, WHAT DO YOU MEAN?
I KNOW THAT POLITICIANS ARE REALLY TALKING ABOUT IT.
I KNOW THAT AOC TALKED ABOUT 12 YEARS THE WORLD COULD END IF WE
DON'T REIGN THIS IN.
PEOPLE WILL SAY THIS IS SO EXAGGERATED AND THEY TUNE OUT.
>> RIGHT.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS A SLOW-MOVING DISASTER.
THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO END IN 12 YEARS.
WHAT'S HAPPENING IS IT'S AS THOUGH THERE'S AN ASTEROID
HEADED TOWARDS EARTH.
NOW'S THE TIME WE NEED TO GET OUT THERE AND PUSH IT OFF OF THE
COLLISION COURSE.
IN THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IT'S NOT GOING TO HIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE CENTURY.
OUR CHILDREN AND GRANDCHILDREN AND GREAT GRANDCHILDREN.
IT'S SO SERIOUS, THE WORLD WILL LEAVE THEM IF WE DON'T NUDGE
THAT ASTEROID OFF COURSE, IT'S UNINHABITABLE.
JUST A TERRIBLE WORLD.
AND THERE ARE TIPPING POINTS THAT CAN PUSH THESE LONG-TERM
CLIMATE AFFECTS OVER THE EDGE AND YOU CAN'T GET BACK FROM
THEM.
WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THEY ARE.
A WHOLE SLEW OF RECENT UN REPORTS SHOWS THAT OUR BEST
GUESS IS THAT WE NEED TO ACT IN THE NEXT 12 YEARS OR CERTAINLY
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DECADES WE NEED TO STOP PUTTING
ANY MORE CARBON INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
WE'RE PUTTING 50 BILLION TONS EVERY YEAR.
AND WE'RE RUNNING THE WHOLE WORLD ECONOMY MOSTLY ON FOSSIL
FUELS.
THAT'S WHAT PUTS THE CARBON IN.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IN JUST THE SPACE OF A FEW DECADES, A VERY
SHARP CHANGE IN THE WHOLE WAY WE RUN THE WORLD ECONOMY SWITCHING
OVER TO CLEAN ENERGY, CHANGING A WHOLE VARIETY OF ECONOMIC
PROCESSES, INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES.
OR WE'RE GOING TO SET IN MOTION THESE PROCESSES THAT WILL MAKE
OUR GRANDCHILDREN MISERABLE.
>> YOU WROTE A BOOK A BRIGHT FUTURE WHICH TALKS ABOUT NUCLEAR
ENERGY WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THE
SCIENTISTS FROM THE DOOMS DAY CLOCK TALK ABOUT.
>> ONE OF THE THINGS OF COMBINING CLIMATE CHANGE AND
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, THERE'S A CONFUSION THEY HAVE TO DO WITH
NUCLEAR POWER.
THEY HAVE VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH EACH OTHER.
WHAT WE TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK IS THE COUNTRIES THAT HAVE
SUCCESSFULLY CLEANED UP THEIR ECONOMIES AND GONE THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THIS TRANSITION THAT THE WORLD NEEDS TO GO
THROUGH GETTING OFF FOSSIL FUELS AND ON TO A CLEAN ENERGY SOURCE.
COUNTRIES LIKE FRANCE AND SWEDEN.
AND THEY VERY QUICKLY IN THE CASE OF FRANCE, 15 YEARS.
THEY JUST TOOK THE FOSSIL FUEL OFF OF THEIR ELECTRICITY GRID
AND BROUGHT IN NUCLEAR POWER.
DOESN'T PRODUCE CARBON.
AND IT'S BEEN THE SAFEST ENERGY SOURCE OVER ITS 60 YEAR LIFE.
ALMOST NOBODY HAS EVER DIED FROM IT UNLIKE COAL WHICH IS OUR
PREDOMINANT FUEL AND KILLS ALMOST A MILLION PEOPLE EVERY
YEAR FROM CANCER,.
SO COULD THE WORLD DO WHAT FRANCE AND SWEDEN DID?
AND IF SO, HOW QUICKLY?
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE AND WHAT KIND OF OBSTACLES NEED TO OVERCOME?
A LOT OF PEOPLE FREAK OUT ABOUT NUCLEAR POWER.
ONE REASON FEAR IS NOT A GOOD MOTIVATOR FOR ACTION IN THAT
CASE.