>> WHEN RUSSIA CARRIED OUT A
MISSILE STRIKE LAST WEEK, THE
DAMAGE WAS PRETTY FRIGHTENING.
SEVERAL FLOOR OF AN APARTMENT
BUILDING WERE DESTROYED AND AT
LEAST FIVE PEOPLE WERE JILLED
AND SEVERAL MORE INJURED BUT
AMONGST THE WRECKAGE, QUITE A
FRIGHTENING FIND.
DEBRIS THAT A TEAM OF UKRAINIAN
FORENSIC EXPERTS BELIEVE BELONGS
TO A RUSSIAN ZIRCON MISSILE.
>> RUSSIA HAS INTRODUCED A NEW
MISSILE SYSTEM THAT COULD BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFEND AGAINST.
>> IF RUSSIA DID FIRE A ZIRCON
MISSILE AT UKRAINE, I'LL JUST
SAY RIGHT NOW IT'S NOT FOR SURE.
THE EVIDENCE IS DISPUTED, WHICH
I'LL EXPLAIN IN A BIT, BUT IF
RUSSIA DID FIRE A ZIRCON MISSILE
INTO UKRAINE, THAT WOULD BE A
FIRST BECAUSE THE ZIRCON IS FROM
A FAMILY OF MISSILE THAT ARE
CONSIDERED VIRTUALLY
UNINTERCEPTABLE, IMPOSSIBLE TO
SHOOT DOWN.
THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO TRAVEL AT
MANY TIMES THE SPEED OF SOUND.
THEY FLY RELATIVELY LOW, MAKING
THEM HARDER TO SEE UNTIL IT'S
TOO LATE AND WITH WHAT CAN WITH
A PRETTY UNPREDICTABLE FLIGHT
PATH.
SO WHAT DO WE KNOW?
BEFORE I SAY ANYTHING ABOUT WHAT
THIS MISSILE IS CAPABLE OF, JUST
KEEP IN MIND, IT'S NOT LIKE YOU
CAN JUST FIND A MANUAL SOMEWHERE
AND READ THE SPEC.
WE'VE HAD TO PIECE TOGETHER WHAT
RUSSIA'S DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS
IT CAN DO AND THE WEIGH THAT
AGAINST WHAT OTHER GOVERNMENTS
AND EXPERTS AND ANALYSTS BELIEVE
IT CAN DO.
SO LET'S JUST START WITH THIS.
HYPERSONIC MISSILES GO INSANITY
FAST.
>> MOST COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL
JET AIRCRAFT TRAVEL SLOWER THAN
MINUTES.
AGAIN, IN THEORY WITH THE
FOOTPRINT OF THE INTERCEPTOR AND
THE DISTANCE IT CAN REACH TO IS
RELATIVELY SMALL AND TO SHOOT
DOWN THE VERY FAST MISSILES IF
YOU HAPPEN TO HAVE AN
INTERCEPTOR LOCATED IN EXACTLY
THE RIGHT PLACE, BUT A LOT
DEPENDS ON THE SPEED IN PRACTICE
AS OPPOSED TO WHAT IS ACTUALLY
CLAIMED.
BUT SPEED ALSO GIVES HYPERSONIC
MISSILE A DIFFERENT KIND OF
ADVANTAGE.
IF YOU HAVE EVER SEEN A ROCKET
RE-ENTRY IN A MOVIE --
YOU KNOW THAT SOMETHING MOVING
AT VERY HIGH SPEED HEATS UP THE
AIR AROUND IT, BUT TRAVELS AT
HYPERSONIC SPEED MAKES THE AIR
SO HOT IT IS NOT EVEN REALLY AIR
ANYMORE.
LEAST NOT IN THE WAY WE'RE USED
TO THINK ABOUT IT.
>> AFTER SOLID, LIQUID AND GAS,
PLASMA IS THE FOURTH STATE OF
MATTER MADE UP OF PARTICLES THAT
HAVE BEEN IONIZED.
IT TURNS INTO A COMPLETELY
SEPARATE STATE OF MATTER CALLED
PLASMA WHICH IS BASICALLY LIKE A
SOUP OF ATOMS THAT GET SO
EXCITED THEY'RE KNOCKING
ELECTRONS OFF OF EACH OTHER.
THE BEST ANALOGY FOR THIS THAT I
HAVE SEEN IS IF YOU IMAGINE AIR,
LIKE A BUNCH OF WATER BALLOONS
FLOATING AROUND, PLASMA IS WHEN
THE WATER BALLOONS BREAK.
AND WITH ALL OF THAT ELECTRON
MAYHEM, YOU GET ELECTRICAL
INTERFERENCE THAT MAKES IT
REALLY HARD FOR RADAR TO DO ITS
THING.
>> BECAUSE THE AIR AROUND IT
INTO AN ELECTRICAL CONDUCTOR,
WHICH MEANS, OF COURSE, THAT IT
IS UNDETECTABLE TO RADAR.
>> ACCORDING TO THE U.S.-BASED
MISSILE DEFENCE ADVOCACY ALIGNED
ALLIANCE, DURING FLIGHT, IT IS
COVERED BY A PLASMA CLOUD THAT
ABSORBS ANY WAVES OF RADIO
FREQUENCIES AND MAKES THE
MISSILE INVISIBLE TO RADAR.
THIS ALLOWS THE MISSILE TO
REMAIN UNDETECTED ON ITS WAY TO
THE TARGET.
>> THIS CLASS OF HYPERSONIC
MISSILE ISN'T JUST ABOUT SPEED.
THIS IS RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY
VIDEO.
IT IS ALSO ABOUT FLIGHT PATH AND
BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT BLAZES
THROUGH THE SKY, IT MAY BE ABLE
TO CONFOUND MISSILE DEFENCE
SYSTEMS IN TWO OTHER KEY WAYS.
SO THIS GRAPHIC FROM THE
CONVERSATION DOES A REALLY GOOD
JOB SHOWING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A HIGH-FLYING BALLISTIC
MISSILE AND A LOW-FLYING
HYPERSONIC MISSILE.
YOU SEE THIS BIG, WIDE
ARC THROUGH SPACE.
A ROCKET LIKE THAT CAN ALSO
TRAVEL AT HYPERSONIC SPEEDS, BUT
IT IS A VERY LONG, VERY
PREDICTABLE PATH.
EASIER DO SHOOT DOWN.
THE TYPE OF HYPERSONIC MISSILE
IS SUPPOSED TO STAY LOW, WHICH
IN THEORY COULD INTRODUCE A NEW
PROBLEM FOR DEFENDERS.
IMAGINE THE PLANET EARTH.
THE GEOMETRY OF BEING ON A
SPHERE LIMITS WHAT SOMETHING
LIKE GROUND RADAR WOULD BE ABLE
TO DETECT WHEN IT LOOKS UP INTO
THE SKY BECAUSE YOU CAN'T REALLY
SEE AROUND THE CURVATURE OF THE
PLANET, RIGHT?
SO BY THE TIME THE HYPERSONIC
MISSILE FINALLY ARRIVES IN YOUR
FIELD OF VIEW, IT'S TRAVELING SO
FAST THAT IT MIGHT BE TOO LATE.
>> IN THE CASE, IT WILL BE
FLYING AT 10, 20 KILOMETRES,
MAYBE HIGHER.
RADAR IS NOT GOING TO PICK IT UP
VERY FAR IN ADVANCE.
AND THAT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO
COMPLICATE CAN THE TASK OF
INTERCEPTION.
WE COULD TALK ABOUT HOW THE
MISSILING CAN MAKE IT HARDER TO
PREDICT WHERE THEY WILL LAND,
BUT WE HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL
BECAUSE AS I SAID BEFORE, WE ARE
DEALING WITH AN UNKNOWN.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR US TO KNOW
EXACTLY WHAT THE RUSSIANS ARE
CONTEMPLATING TOP STORYING.
IT IS A MODERN, SOMEWHAT
SECRETIVE GLOBAL ARMS RACE.
RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN, NORTH
KOREA, FRANCE, INDIA, AUSTRALIA,
JAPAN, ALL RESEARCH PROGRAMS
LOOKING INTO HYPERSONIC MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY ACCORDING TO THE
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE IN
THE UNITED STATES.
THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE HAS
SPENT MORE THAN $8 BILLION SINCE
2019 ON PROGRAMS TO DEVELOP
HYPERSONIC MISSILES.
AND SPECIFICALLY, RUSSIA HAS
MADE PRETTY GRAND CLAIMS ABOUT
HOW ITS HYPERSONIC ARSENAL WILL
CHANGE WARFARE AS WE KNOW IT.
ABOUT FIVE YEARS AGO PUTIN
ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD RUSSIA
HAD TWO OPERATIONAL HYPERSONIC
WEAPONS.
TWO DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES BUT
BOTH VERY FAST.
>> A METEORITE TO THE TARGET IT
BOASTED.
>> A FEW YEARS LATER, IT HAD
COMPLETED TESTING OF THE ZIRCON
AND ONE OF THE WARSHIPS WOULD,
FOR THE FIRST TIME, ACCORDING TO
RUSSIAN STATE NEWS, BE ARMED
WITH THEM, PART OF A NEW
GENERATION OF UNRIVALLED WEAPONS
SYSTEMS.
ABOUT SEVEN MONTHS LATER A TEST
FLIGHT AT NEARLY MAX RANGE.
IT WAS JUST PRACTICE, BUT IT
APPARENTLY WORKED.
STILL, LAUNCHING AT UKRAINIAN
TARGETS.
THAT IS NEW.
IF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENED.
AND BUCKLE UP, THIS IS WHERE THE
STORY GETS A LITTLE BUMPY.
>> DID RUSSIA REALLY FIRE A
ZIRCON MISSILE, WE DON'T KNOW
FOR SURE.
THE TELEGRAM POST SHOWED VIDEO
OF THE DEBRIS COLLECTED LAST
WEEK.
THE POST MENTIONS HOW THE
FRAGMENTS HAVE THE MARKINGS AND
YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE 3M22 LASER
ETCHED THEY SAY IN SOME CASES
INTO THE METAL PIECES.
THIS IS A TEST FIRING BY RUSSIA
TO SEE HOW THIS PERFORMS.
>> BUT NOT EVERYONE IS
CONVINCED.
ONE REPRESENTATIVE SAID THE
SO-CALLED LASER ETCHING LOOKED
MORE LIKE NAIL SCRATCHES IN A
PIECE OF RUBBLE.
HARDLY DEFINITIVE.
BUT IF THIS WAS A ZIRCON
HYPERSONIC MISSILE, THERE ARE
TWO WAYS OF LOOKING AT IT.
EXAGGERATING ITS CLAIMS OF WHAT
THE ZIR CON CAN DO.
AND THERE THE CLAIMS HAVE TURNED
OUT TO BE BASELESS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE CLAIMS
ARE CREW, IT WOULD BE A
DANGEROUS DEVELOPMENT FOR
UKRAINE.
IT ALREADY STRUGGLES TO SHOOT
DOWN THE MORE CONVENTIONAL
MISSILES AND HAS ASKED FOR MORE
ASSISTANCE ON AIR DEFENCE.
FOR EXAMPLE, IN THAT WITH THE
MISSILING, DRONES, ONLY 44 WERE
INTERCEPTED.
IF RUSSIA DOES HAVE A BATTLE
TESTED MISSILE, THAT'S ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO SHOOT DOWN, THREE
QUESTIONS.
HOW MANY DOES IT HAVE?
HOW MANY CAN IT MAKE?
AND WHAT WI
EFFECTIVELY DEFEND AGAINST THEM?