>> PRESIDENT-ELECT JOE BIDEN GOT
HIS FIRST DOSE OF THE PFIZER
CORONAVIRUS VACCINE TODAY, LIVE
ON TELEVISION.
HERE IN NEW YORK, HEALTH CARE
WORKERS STARTED GETTING THE
SECOND APPROVED VACCINE, THE ONE
FROM MODERNA.
AND THERE’S A LOT OF OPTIMISM IN
THE AIR AROUND THE VACCINE, AS
WE HAVE TWO NOW CIRCULATING.
IT WAS TEMPERED, I HAVE TO SAY,
FOR ME, OUT OF NEWS OF ENGLAND
WHERE APPARENTLY A HIGHLY NEW
STRAIN OF CORONAVIRUS HELPED TO
DOUBLE THE RATE OF INFECTIONS
THERE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS.
THE QUESTION NOW, HOW WORRIED
SHOULD WE BE ABOUT THIS NEW
STRAIN?
AND ALSO THE VACCINE IS STILL
GOING TO PROTECT US FROM THAT,
RIGHT?
THERE’S PERHAPS NO ONE I WOULD
RATHER TALK TO RIGHT NOW TO HELP
ANSWER SOME OF THOSE QUESTIONS,
THAN LAURIE GARRET AND AUTHOR OF
"THE COMING PLAGUE."
LET’S START WITH THE MUTATION
THAT IS IN THE UK.
IS IT REAL?
AND DO WE KNOW THAT IT IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A MUCH HIGHER
RATE OF TRANSMISSION?
>> SO, CHRIS, I HAVE TO GIVE YOU
VERY BAD NEWS.
THIS IS THE FOURTH MUTATION
EVENT THAT IS SIGNIFICANT,
APPARENTLY, IN THE TRANSMISSION
OF THE VIRUS.
THE FIRST BIG MUTATIONAL EVENT
OCCURRED AFTER THE VIRUS JUMPED
TO ITALY, SOME TIME IN FEBRUARY
OR MARCH.
>> RIGHT.
>> IT WAS THAT VERY
TRANSMISSIBLE STRAIN THAT MADE
IT TO NEW YORK AND THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THE SECOND MUTATIONAL EVENT
OCCURRED THIS SUMMER WHEN THE
VIRUS SOMEHOW GOT INTO MINK, IN
MINK FARMS.
THIS IS THE ANIMAL THAT MAKES
FUR COATS, IN DENMARK AND
ELSEWHERE AND MINK POPULATIONS
IN NORTH AMERICA.
THAT STRAIN CAN SPREAD TO PEOPLE
FROM MINKS.
IT’S NOT CLEAR WHETHER IT GOES
FROM PEOPLE TO MINKS, BUT
PRESUMABLY THAT’S HOW IT
ORIGINALLY GOT IN THE MINK
POPULATION.
THE THIRD ONE APPEARED IN
OCTOBER IN SOUTH AFRICA, AND IT
IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
IT SEEMS TO MAKE THE VIRUS MORE
TRANSMISSIBLE, AND THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE SOUTH
AFRICAN MINISTRY OF HEALTH JUST
TODAY THAT IT MAY ALSO BE MORE
VIRULENT IN YOUNG ADULTS.
IT’S SPREADING FASTER IN YOUNGER
ADULTS AND IT SEEMS TO CAUSE
MORE SEVERE DISEASE IN YOUNGER
ADULTS.
AND THEN WE HAVE THE BRITISH
ONE, WHICH WAS FIRST NOTICED
APPARENTLY IN SEPTEMBER.
IT HAS REALLY SWEPT THE UK OVER
THE LAST THREE WEEKS.
IT NOW ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 40%,
ROUGHLY, OF NEW CASES IN THE UK
AND SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 71% MORE
TRANSMISSIBLE FROM PERSON TO
PERSON, COMPARED TO THE ROUTINE
STRAINS OF COVID-19 OR SARS
COV-2.
SO, YEAH, THERE’S A LOT TO THINK
ABOUT HERE.
ARE WE LOOKING AT SOMETHING
THAT’S MORE DANGEROUS?
IF THESE ESTIMATES, RATE OF
REPRODUCTION, HOLD UP AND IT’S
NOW SEVERAL DIFFERENT
LABORATORIES AND RESEARCH
ORGANIZATIONS CONFIRMING WHAT
THE BRITISH ORIGINALLY SAID,
THAT THEIR STRAIN IS REPRODUCING
MUCH FASTER, LOG-SCALE FASTER
THAN THE ROUTINE SPREAD COVID
STRAINS, IF THAT HOLDS UP, THEN
WE MAY OR MAY NOT BE LOOKING AT
A MORE VIRULENT STRAIN, BUT
CERTAINLY A FASTER SPREADING
STRAIN.
ONE SET OF STUDIES SEEMS TO
INDICATE ONCE PEOPLE ARE
INFECTED, THEIR BODIES ACTUALLY
START PRODUCING FAR MORE VIRUS,
AT LEAST A LOG-SCALE MORE VIRUS.
SO THEY’RE SHEDDING MORE VIRUS.
THEY’RE MORE LIKELY TO BE
INFECTIOUS TO PEOPLE AROUND
THEM.
>> SO, THIS IS JUST A GRAPHIC
THAT SORT OF GIVES YOU A SENSE
OF HOW THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE
UK.
THIS CHART SHOWS HOW, OVER TIME,
THIS STRAIN HAS BECOME MORE AND
MORE DOMINANT.
YOU SEE THE PREVALENCE OF THAT
ORANGE VARIANT GROWING OVER
TIME.
SO THEN THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES
THE VACCINE, RIGHT?
SO MY UNDERSTANDING FROM THE REPORTING I’VE DONE OVER THESE
REPORTING I’VE DONE OVER THESE
LAST FEW MONTHS, TALKING TO
VIROLOGISTS, IT’S FAIRLY STABLE
AND THAT HAS BEEN USEFUL IN SORT
OF DESIGNING THE VACCINE.
WE’VE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE
MUTATIONS.
WHAT DO WE THINK THAT PORTENDS
FOR THE VACCINE?
>> RIGHT NOW, THE GENERAL
STATEMENT THAT’S BEING MADE BY
ALL PARTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
HEALTH DEPARTMENTS AND SO ON IS,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE VACCINE WILL
BE FINE AND THIS IS GOING TO
WORK OUT JUST FINE.
BUT WE DON’T ACTUALLY HAVE DATA,
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, TO ANSWER
THAT QUESTION.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE UK
STUDIES ON USING THE ROUTINE
NUCLAEIC ACID TESTS TO SEE IF
THEY ARE INFECTED ARE MISSING
THIS VIRUS.
IF THEY ARE TESTS THAT TARGET
THE SO-CALLED S-PROTEIN, THE
SPIKE THAT YOU SEE STICKING UP
OUT OF ALL THE LITTLE BALL --
THE SORT OF BALL-SHAPED VIRUS
WITH THESE LITTLE SPIKES
STICKING OUT.
THAT S PROTEIN IS THE KEY
MUTATIONAL EVENT THAT SEEMS TO
MAKE THIS MORE TRANSMISSIBLE.
THAT PROTEIN IS WHAT LOGS ON TO
A HUMAN CELL AND THEN OPENS THE
DOOR AND THEN THE VIRUS GOES IN
TO YOUR CELL.
WELL, IT’S ALSO WHAT YOUR
ANTIBODIES RECOGNIZE.
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST
THOSE KIND OF PCR TESTS THAT
SPECIFICALLY TARGET THAT --
FINDING THAT S PROTEIN ARE
MISSING A LOT OF THE ENGLISH
INFECTIONS, AND THEY ARE
ADVISING THE EU’S BROADER
ANALYSIS THAT LOOKS FOR MORE