Welcome to the Bureau of Meteorology’s severe weather
and tropical cyclone long-range forecast for October 2022 to April 2023.
While severe weather can occur at any time of the year this is the peak time for flooding,
tropical cyclones, heatwaves, bushfires and severe thunderstorms.
In the months ahead Australia can expect an increased
risk of widespread flooding for both eastern and northern Australia.
An increased chance of more tropical cyclones and tropical lows possibly earlier in the season.
A risk of bushfire or grass fire potential.
A risk of prolonged heatwaves with high humidity in the south
and a risk of severe thunderstorms.
The sea surface temperatures
in the Indian and Pacific oceans have an impact on Australia's weather.
The Bureau declared a La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean
on the 13th of September 2022, which can influence climate conditions.
La Nina describes changes in ocean temperatures
and weather patterns that typically bring above average
rainfall to northern and eastern Australia.
To our west, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event
was announced on the 2nd of August 2022.
This is a natural climate pattern where warmer ocean waters of northwest Australia
increase the chance of rainfall over much of southern and eastern Australia.
This year, We've already had above average rainfall for much of Australia,
so the landscape is wet and most water storage levels are high.
So let's take a closer look at the long range forecast
for the coming severe weather season.
With more rain likely, there is an increased risk of widespread
and prolonged river flooding across northern and eastern Australia.
Across the north tropical lows can also bring
heavy rainfall over land, leading to widespread flooding.
Some coastal flooding is likely around the highest tides of the year,
which are expected to be unusually high around the 23rd of January
for the New South Wales and southern Queensland coasts and around the 20th
of February on northern Queensland coasts, including the Torres Strait.
This is because of sea level trends and the alignment of the earth
with the moon and the sun at these times.
This season we have a greater
than 70% chance of at least 11 tropical cyclones,
which is the long term average for the Australian region.
And remember, even cyclones that don't make landfall can still cause damage,
including rainfall leading to flooding, destructive winds and coastal erosion.
The tropical cyclone season typically runs from November to April
and there's a chance the first tropical cyclone
in the Australian region is likely to be earlier in the season.
While we can't predict the exact timing, intensity
or location of any individual tropical cyclone this far out.
We do know that in every season since records began in the 1970s,
Australia has had at least one tropical cyclone crossed the coast.
People right across northern Australia should be prepared for the cyclone season
and follow our tropical cyclone watch and warning advice
on the Bureau's website or on the Bureau's weather app.
The outlook for wet conditions means bushfire potential during spring
is below average in parts of New South Wales and above
average in parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Bushfires are always a risk in southern Australia in summer
and even short periods of hot and windy weather will raise the fire risk.
So have your bushfire plan ready.
Summer also brings heatwaves which Australia's most deadly natural hazard.
Warm nights after hot days give our bodies little chance to cool down.
And heat stress becomes a significant risk to health.
Heatwaves can also have an impact on our economy with infrastructure,
as well as agriculture, energy management and many other industries affected.
We now issue heatwave warnings direct to the community through our website
and the Bureau of Weather App,
with an outlook for increased rain and humidity this summer.
We may not have extreme heat days compared to some recent years.
While heatwaves may not be as severe, they may last longer, be warmer overnight
and be more humid in southern areas, which can increase the risk to health.
Severe thunderstorms can cause dangerous conditions, including flash flooding,
large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.
They are more common during the warmer months, particularly
in northern New South Wales, southern Queensland,
inland Western Australia and across the tropical north.
Thunderstorm asthma can also be triggered by storms
with strong winds, particularly across southern Australia,
especially from October to December when pollen levels are highest.
It is important to know your weather and know your risk
to ensure you are ready to act and stay safe.
Follow all advice and your local emergency services on what to do
before, during and after severe weather.
Stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings
on the Bureau's website or the Bureau weather app.
If you're traveling, you can update your location and enable notifications on your app
to get the warning information you need when it matters most.
And please stay safe.