DOWN MEANS PEOPLE ARE LOOKING
FORE MAYBE SAFETY, BUT OKAY,
LOOKING FOR LESS SAFETY IN
LAST 20 MINUTES YARDENI ROCHE
PRESIDENT ED YARDENI JOINING
THE CONVERSATION JOE CONCHA
MITCH ROCHELLE ALL-STAR PANEL
GREAT TO HAVE ALL OF YOU HERE
WANT YOUR TAKE AN WHAT YOU ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING VERSUS
YESTERDAY MORNING, FRANKLY
WHAT WE’RE SEEING, ALL OF
THESE CONCERNS IN THE MARKET
WHICH IS A BIGGER STORY A
BIGGER WORRY SECOND HALF OF
2021 WHAT DO YOU SAY.
>> THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE GROWING
SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR BUT
CERTAINLY NO DOUBT GROWING AT
SLOWER PACE FIRST HALF OF THE
YEAR, BUT I AM LOOKING FOR 3
TO 4%, ISSUE REAL GDP SECOND
HALF AWFULLY GOOD AS YOU
PROBABLY KNOW, THE FEDERAL
RESERVE BANK ATLANTA HAS A
MODEL PREDICTING 7 1/2% FOR
THE SECOND-QUARTER EARNINGS
SIDE LOOKS REALLY GOOD YOU ARE
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT ABOUT
YESTERDAY, THE MARKETS, STOCK
MARKET WAS CREEPED UP ABOUT
BEYOND BEYOND YIELDS COPING
DOWN WHY TROUBLESOME HE
PERCEPTION IS DELTA VARIANT IS
SPREADING MIGHT CAUSE ANOTHER
DOWN YOU TURN IN THE ECONOMY
RECESSION, THIS MORNING
EVERYBODY GOT UP SAID WAIT A
SECOND BOND YIELDS ARE THIS
LOW MAYBE WE SHOULDN’T LOOK
OUTLET STOCKS -- GOT CHEAPER
YESTERDAY.
>> GDP, BECAUSE THIS IS THIS
IS THE GROWTH STORY FOR IF
SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR A THE
MARKET BOND MARKET WATCHING,
SO I WAS LOOKING AT OVERALL
FOR ARE TWO MONTH RECESSION
2020 WE KNOW THAT NOW, BUT GDP
6.4% FIRST QUARTER, OKAY?
WAS ALMOST TO THE RECORD WE
SAW BACK IN 2019, THEN LOOKING
AT ABOUT 9% FOR Q 2, BUT THEN
THOSE EXPECTATIONS COME DOWN
FOR Q3 AND QTHE 4 WHAT DOES
THAT GIVE YOU FOR 2021, ABOUT
6.9% GROWTH THAT IS ENOUGH IS
THAT ARE WE -- EXPECTATIONS
TOO --
>> THAT IS -- THAT IS -- THAT
IS EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG,
THOUGH SO NOT SUSTAINABLE, I
MEAN, WE -- WE SEEM TO HAVE
FORGOTTEN THAT NORMAL WAS 2%
REAL GDP GROWTH PRIOR TO THE
PANDEMIC.
AND MANY PESSIMISTS SAID TOO
LOW IT WITH A WAS QUITE
SUSTAINABLE FOR A VERY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME WE ARE NOT
GOING TO KEEP GROWING 6%, WE
ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP
BACK TO 2%, BY THAT I AM
ACTUALLY MORE OPTIMISTIC I
DON’T THINK ACTUALLY IS GOING
TO BE NORMAL AHEAD I THINK
PRODUCTIVITY IS GOING TO MAKE
A BIG COMEBACK YOU MENTIONED
ALL RESTAURANTS OTHER
EMPLOYERS CAN’T FIND ENOUGH
WORKERS THEY HAVE TO FIGURE
OUT WAYS TO INCREASE
PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY
GOING TO LEAD TO WHAT I THINK
IS ROARING 2020s UP AHEAD.
>> YOU THINK PRODUCTIVITY
BECAUSE IN LABOR MARKET THERE
IS CONCERN OBVIOUSLY ABOUT
LABOR SHORTAGE WE ARE SEEING
ALSO CONCERN ABOUT CONSUMER
PRICES I COVERED YOU KNOW CPI,
PPI FOR THE SHOW FOR MARIA NOT
DOING THAT BECAUSE I THINK IT
IS FUN IT IS CRUCIAL TO
MARKETBREDTH WHAT HAS BEEN
SHOWING ME SHOWING MARKET
CONSUMER PRICES ARE GOING UP
PEOPLE ARE PAYING MORE
REFRIGERATORS ELECTRONICS,
CARS, HOMES I THINK THAT WAS
ONE OF THE BIGGEST UNDERLYING
CURRENTS OF YESTERDAY’S
SELL-OFF.
>> I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT, THE
IS CONCERNED BE TWIXT AND
BETWEEN, MARKET STRONG, NOW
CONSUMER SURVEYS PEOPLE
GETTING DISTRESSED ABOUT
HIGHER PRICES SAYING TOO
EXPENSIVE TO BUY A HOUSE A
APPLY ANNES COULD LEAD TO A
SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY SO
THERE IS SORT OF CONFUSION
WHAT IS GOING TO BE NORMAL OUT
OF PANDEMIC.
>> I WANT TO BRING ADMIT OF
ROCHELLE IN TO THIS INFLATION
STORY THE FED STORY, ALL OF
THIS PLAYS INTO MARKET
BREADTH.
>> -- GO AHEAD.
>> THERE WE GO, THERE YOU GO,
MICROPHONE ON, GO AHEAD.
>> MICROPHONE ON.
THE RUSSELL 2000 HAS SOLDOFF
CONSIDERABLY, AND I AM CURIOUS
AS INVESTORS START LOOKING FOR
BARGAINS WHEN YOU HAVE ONE OR
TWO DAY HE O SELL-OFF LOOK AT
BARGAINS ARE THEY ROTATING
BACK TO THE RUSSELL 2000 LOOKS
LIKE IT IS PRETTY CHEAP RIGHT
NOW.
>> I THINK WE ALL NEEDING TO
TO THE DRUGSTORE GET A NECK
BRACE YOU CAN YOU CAN REALLY
GET WHIP -- SORRY -- QUITE A
BIT, AND I THINK YOU ARE
MAKING A GOOD POINT HERE, IT
IS -- IT IS A MARKET WHERE THE
-- THE SO-CALLED INVESTMENT
STYLES WHIP AROUND, VERY, VERY
RAPIDLY, AND IT WAS FROM EARLY
HE SEPTEMBER, UNTIL MARCH THAT
WE SAW VALUE STOCKS, REOPENING
TRADE STOCKS DOING WELL, THE
ECONOMY LED TO A REBOUND IN
SMALL-CAP STOCKS AS WELL.
AND NOW JUST IN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS WE’VE SEEN A GROWTH
STOCKS PARTICULARLY THE BIG
CAP FIVE BIG CAP NAMES I CALL
THEM MAGNIFICENT FIVE, I FIND
IT DIFFICULT TO -- PRINT OUT
-- HOWEVER, YOU PRONOUNCE THAT
THE REALITY IS, THEY’VE KIND
OF SUCKED AIR OUT THE PAST FEW
WEEKS RALLY ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGH FOR MARKET CAP I THINK
THE MARKET IS GOING TO START
BROADENING OUT.
CHERYL: MAYBE A STOCKPICKERS
MARKET NEXT SIX MONTHS.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
CHERYL: NOT A BAD THING, AT