The world’s major powers - led by President Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry
- have reached a historic deal with Iran to halt their pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
These are its terms, along with my thoughts on the deal.
For the next 10 years, Iran will reduce the number of centrifuges enriching uranium from
nearly 20,000 to just over 6,000--and these will all be Iran’s first generation type
that have had significant performance problems over the years.
For a nuclear bomb, you need uranium enriched above 90 percent.
Iran had been processing it to 20%.
With this deal, it will not enrich above 3.7%, and it will drastically cut the amount of
this material in its possession to just 300 kilograms from the current level of 10,000
kg.
Both limitations will last for at least 15 years.
The core of the heavy water reactor at Arak that was capable of producing a significant
amount of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
Plutonium is the other fuel you can use to make a nuclear bomb.
All remaining plutonium will be shipped out of the country as well.
The reactor will then be converted to research for peaceful purposes.
This would push back it’s “breakout timeline” -- which is the time it would take for Iran
to create enough nuclear material for a bomb -- from its current level of 2-3 months, to
well over a year.
I.A.E.A.
inspections will be extensive and unrestrained by a timed endpoint.
The nuclear watchdog will have continuous monitoring and access to all of Iran’s nuclear
facilities, including its crown jewel enrichment facility at Natanz.
Its facility at Fordow will stop enriching uranium completely, and will be converted
to a research center.
The inspectors will use the most modern, up-to-date surveillance technologies available.
Inspectors will have access to all of Iran’s uranium mines and mills for 25 years.
Iran will completely stop manufacturing new centrifuges and will allow inspectors to constantly
watch over the centrifuges it removes from Fordow and Natanz.
Any sale of nuclear-related materials and technology to Iran for its continuing nuclear
energy program will be monitored and have to gain approval through a specific purchasing
process.
And if the I.A.E.A.
wants to investigate any suspicious sites beyond those it has regular access to, it
will seek approval from Iran.
And if Iran refuses, an independent body will decide whether it must comply.
This is one of the things that still needs to be worked out, but according to the U.S.,
the sanctions will only begin to be lifted after Iran has taken all of the key steps
to rolling back its program and allowing I.A.E.A.
full access.
Even after Iran fully complies, and the sanctions are lifted, if the West determines Iran has
changed its mind and is pursuing a nuclear weapon again, it can easily snap the sanctions
back in place.
The presence of inspectors throughout Iran’s nuclear supply chain will make any non-compliance
easily detectable nearly instantly, allowing for a swift response.
While there is still a chance Iran could back out of this deal and pursue a bomb, that is
highly unlikely.
If the government were to do that it would lose any of the little credibility it has
left, its economy would continue to collapse under the weight of the sanctions, it would
likely face immediate military strikes that would be justified by the West, and its people
-- convinced that economic relief was on the way -- would likely revolt against the leadership
of Ayatollah Khamenei -- who already faced widespread public unrest just five years ago,
when millions of Iranians took to the streets against him.
If you want to watch more TDC, click on the screen to see our look at 10 promising energy
sources of the future, or our examination of the 10 biggest Mega-Projects under construction
around the world.
And if you enjoyed this video, we’ve worked out what I think is a pretty good deal for
you to receive a free audio-book from Audible.com through the link in the description below.
You sign up for a free 30-day trial of their service--you have to put in your credit card,
but you can cancel at any time.
And for signing up, Audible will throw a little bit back our way and you will get to feel
good about contributing to help us keep making these kinds of videos, plus you get a free
audiobook, like the highly rated Atomic Awakening: a new look at the history and future of nuclear
power.
Thanks for watching, for The Daily Conversation, I’m Bryce Plank.