GERRY: HERE AT THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM I GOT TO
MODERATE A WALL STREET JOURNAL
PANEL THAT INCLUDED TREASURY
SECRETARY STEVE MNUCHIN.
I ASKED HIM IF PRESIDENT TRUMP
IS CORRECT IN SAYING THAT THE
U.S. ECONOMIC BOOM IS INDEED
UNPRECEDENTED.
UNPRECEDENTED. 641.
641. [INAUDIBLE]
[INAUDIBLE] >> YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS ON
AN ABSOLUTE BASIS THE ECONOMY
IS OUT PERFORMING THE REST THE
WORLD, THERE IS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT SLOWDOWN IN THE
REST OF THE WORLD AND WE HAVE
HAD A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
SINCE THE OBAMA ECONOMY
CREATING AN ABUNDANCE,
MILLIONS OF NEW JOBS, CREATED
VERY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAGES.
WAGES. AND THIS IS NO QUESTION IT’S A
RESULT OF THE PRESIDENT’S
ECONOMIC PROGRAM THAT WAS
DESIGNED DURING THE CAMPAIGN
OF TAX CUTS, REGULATORY
RELIEF.
RELIEF. IN PARTICULAR THIS YEAR WE’VE
HAD A VERY BIG WEEK IN BOTH
SIGNING THE PHASE I CHINA DEAL
AND PASSING THE
US-MEXICO-CANADA AGREEMENT, I
THINK THESE ARE VERY IMPORTANT
TO THE U.S. ECONOMY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE YEAR.
GERRY: OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A
BIG BOOST IN GROWTH OF ALMOST
THREE-POINT TO AND 2018, THAT
SEEMS TO BE A DIRECT RESPONSE
TO THE FISCAL IMPULSE THAT
CAME FROM THE BIG TAX CUT PASS
AT THE END OF 2017.
BUT THAT DOES SEEM TO PASS IN
THE GROSSING BE SLIPPING BACK
IN 2019 ESTIMATE AROUND TWO
AND A QUARTER PERCENT.
MAYBE THIS YEAR UP 2%.
DID WE JUST GET A ONE UP BOOST
FROM THAT HUGE FISCAL
IMPULSE?
IMPULSE? >> ABSOLUTELY NOT.
I WOULD SAY 2019, AGAIN DID
WELLIN AN ABSOLUTE BASIS IT
DEFINITELY SLOWED DOWN FROM
ONE, THE WORLD ECONOMY SLOWING
DOWN SO THAT THERE’S NO
QUESTION THAT SLOWED DOWN.
ALSO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
IMPACT OF BOEING, THE 737 MAX,
AND THE GM STRIKE.
SO THERE’S NO QUESTION THAT
ALL OF THOSE ISSUES PROBABLY
CUT ABOUT 50 TO SEVEN BASIS
POINTS OFF OF GROWTH LAST
YEAR.
YEAR. AND I KNOW WE WILL HEAR
PROJECTIONS AND WE THANKS
PEOPLE PROJECTIONS ARE TOO LOW
THIS YEAR FOR 2020.
GERRY: HAS U.S. GROWTH BEEN
HELD BACK ABOUT CONCERNS OF
GLOBAL TRADE?
GLOBAL TRADE? >> I DON’T THINK SO.
AGAIN IT’S CLEARLY BEEN HELD
BACK BY A SLOWDOWN AROUND THE
WORLD.
WORLD. WE COULD DEBATE BUT I DON’T
THINK THAT’S WHAT I WAS NOT
CREATED BY OUR TRADE ISSUES IT
WAS A WELLIN ADVANCE OF
TRADE.
TRADE. BUT THERE IT IS NO QUESTION
THERE WAS A SLOW DOWN, AND A
GLOBAL SLOWDOWN HAS AN IMPACT
ON GLOBAL TRADE.
GERRY: THE PRESIDENT MENTIONED
AGAIN TODAY IN HIS REMARKS
THAT IN HIS VIEW THE GROWTH
WOULD’VE BEEN STRONGER IF THE
FEDERAL RESERVE HAD BEEN MORE
ACCOMMODATING AND NOT RAISED
RATES SO QUICKLY.
AND CUT THEM MORE QUICKLY.
DO YOU AGREE THAT?
>> I THINK YOU KNOW IN MY ROLE
AS SECRETARY OF TREASURY, I AM
CAREFUL ABOUT COMMENTING ON
POLICY.
POLICY. GERRY: IS IT A PROBLEM THAT
YOUR BOSS CAN CRITICIZE BUT
YOU CHOOSE NOT TO?
>> ABSOLUTELY HE’S THE
PRESIDENT OF THE SECRETARY OF
THE TREASURY.
THE TREASURY. [LAUGHTER]
[LAUGHTER] GERRY: SO EVEN THOUGH WE DON’T
THINK TRADE IS PLAYED A ROLE
PRESUMABLY YOU THINK THE PHASE
I TRADE AND THE USMCA THAT WE
GOT IN THE SOUTH KOREA
RENEGOTIATION, YOU THINK ALL
THOSE WILL HELP WITH GROWTH?
>> YES AND AGAIN GDP IS ONE
MEASURE OF GROWTH.
AND AGAIN, DELAYED GDP IS
CALCULATED, THERE’S A BUNCH OF
THINGS THAT IMPACT GDP THAT
ARE ONE-TIME EVENTS.
SO I AM NOT PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED ON WHETHER OR NOT GDP
WAS HIGHER OUR WEATHER GDP WAS
LOWER, WHAT I AM FOCUSED ON IS
WHAT TO DO TO EMPLOYMENT?
WHAT’D YOU DO TO LABOR FORCE
PARTICIPATION?
PARTICIPATION? WHAT DO DIGITAL WAGES?
WHAT DO YOU DO TO ASSIST
CONSUMER SPENDING?
CONSUMER SPENDING? WHAT IS THE FORECAST MOVING
FORWARD?
FORWARD? WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FORECAST
FOR 2020, BUSINESS AND THE
U.S. FEELS VERY GOOD.
AND THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT
NOW THE TWO TRADE DEALS THAT
WE HAVE DONE WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT THIS YEAR.
I WOULD SAY ON THE OTHER SIDE
AGAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
IT TAKES FOR THE 737 MAX TO
GET BACK INTO PRODUCTION,
THAT’S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON GDP.
ON GDP. I’VE SAID PUBLICLY THAT COULD
BE 50 BASIS POINTS IN GDP, BUT
AGAIN I WOULD NOT FOCUS TOO
MUCH ON THE GDP NUMBER.
WE COULD EASILY GET 3% OF THE
FACTS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT.
DIFFERENT. GERRY: THE U.S. ECONOMY, IS A
JOBS PRODUCING MACHINE FOR A
LONG TIME AND ITS TUNA AND
HALF MILLION DOLLARS FOR A
YEAR.
YEAR. HOW MUCH LONGER CANNOT GO ON
GIVEN THE INEVITABLE
CONSTRAINTS OF LABOR SUPPLY?
>> I THINK THERE’S A LOT OF
THINGS WE STILL NEED TO DO.
WE TALKED ABOUT APPRENTICESHIP
PROGRAMS, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE
THERE IS BETTER EDUCATION
PROGRAMS FOR SKILLED LABOR, WE
NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE
WHO ARE GETTING ADVANCE PHD’S
THAT WE CAN KEEP THEM WORKING
AT OUR COMPANIES, I DO THINK
THE PARTICIPATION RATES CAN
CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER, I THINK
PRODUCTIVITY WE CAN SPEND A
LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT WHY
PRODUCTIVITY IS WHERE IT IS,
BUT THERE IS UPSIDE AND
PRODUCTIVITY.
PRODUCTIVITY. AND I THINK LOOK THE PRESIDENT
WANTS TO FIX IMMIGRATION,