CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS PASSED. THE NEW DEADLINE IS EARLY MARCH.
WHAT IS YOUR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT THEY CAN FIGURE
OUT THIS APPROPRIATIONS PROCESS BEFORE WE ARE HALFWAY THROUGH
THE FISCAL YEAR?
>> I DON'T KNOW THEY WILL FIGURE EVERYTHING OUT BEFORE
MARCH 1 OR MARCH 8, BUT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS ON A BIPARTISAN
BASIS CONGRESS IS NOT INTERESTED IN A GOVERNMENT
SHUTDOWN, SO EVEN IF THEY CAN'T FINISH THEIR WORK BY THE FIRST
OR THE 8TH, WE WILL GET ANOTHER ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM LEASE ON
LIFE WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO WORK IT OUT.
CONGRESSMAN HILL HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD I THINK IN TERMS OF
THE OUTSTANDING ISSUES. IT IS NOT SO MUCH THE FUNDING
LEVELS, THEY HAVE BEEN AGREED TO AND RE-AGREED TO.
THE ISSUE NOW IS, WHAT ARE THE POLICY RIDERS THAT WILL BE
ATTACHED TO THIS EXERCISE? HAVING BEEN THROUGH SEVERAL
DOZEN BUDGET NEGOTIATIONS, THERE ARE AT LEAST A DOZEN, MAY
BE MORE POLICY FIGHTS THAT HAVE YET TO BE LITIGATED.
THOSE WERE NOT DECIDED AS PART OF THE OVERALL FUNDING LEVELS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME BUMPS IN THE ROAD, BUT I'M GETTING MORE
BULLISH THAT NO SHUTDOWN IS IN OUR FUTURE, EVEN IF THEY CAN'T
QUITE FINISH THEIR WORK BY THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. JOE:
PRETTY REMARKABLE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE "NO" VOTES.
THE CONFERENCE CHAIR ELISE STEFANIK, EIGHT COMMITTEE
CHAIRS, INCLUDING THE BUDGET CHAIR JODEY ARRINGTON, EVEN THE
CHAIR OF THE ADMIN COMMITTEE BRIAN STYLE VOTED NO.
THIS IS NOT MAGA WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HERE, THESE ARE IN MANY
CASES MAINSTREAM REPUBLICANS IN
THE HOUSE, AND IN THE CASE OF STEFANIK, PLATE OF MIKE
JOHNSON'S TEAM. -- PART OF MIKE JOHNSON'S TEAM.
WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT THE CHANCES OF SEEING A BUDGET
WITH THIS REPUBLICAN CONGRESS? ROHIT:
THE WAY IT PASSED LAST NIGHT WAS THE WAY BILLS WILL BE
SIGNED INTO LAW, SOMETHING BIPARTISAN THAT UNITES THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO CONFERENCES IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE.
ALTHOUGH IT WAS BY THE HAIR OF HIS CHINNY CHIN CHIN, HE GOT A
MAJORITY OF THOSE REPUBLICANS VOTING FOR THE AGREEMENT THAN
NOT VOTING FOR THE AGREEMENT. THIS HARKENS BACK TO WHAT YOU
FOR TWO AS -- WHAT YOU REFER TO AS THE RULE, NOT GETTING ALL
THE MAJORITY, BUT GETTING MORE THAN HALF YOUR CONFERENCE TO
VOTE FOR SOMETHING IS GENERALLY WHERE YOU WANT TO BE AS SPEAKER.
HE GOT THERE LAST NIGHT. KAILEY: THIS WAS ABLE TO PASS THE FULL
HOUSE LAST NIGHT. I WANT TO GET YOUR TAKE ON
SOMETHING JUST PAST OUT OF THE HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE,
THIS TAX DEAL THAT WOULD EXTEND TAX BREAKS FOR BUSINESSES AND
EXPAND THE CHILD TAX CREDIT. I CAUGHT UP WITH THE CHAIR OF
THAT COMMITTEE, A REPUBLICAN FROM MISSOURI, AHEAD OF TODAY'S
MARKUP. THIS IS HOW OUR CONVERSATION
WENT.
>> WE WILL HAVE THIS BILL MARKED UP ON FRIDAY FROM THE
WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE, AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ON THE FLOOR
IN NO TIME AT ALL. KAILEY: SHOULD WE EXPECT ANY CHANGES AT
THAT MARKUP, AND WHAT MIGHT THEY BE? REP. SMITH:
WE HAVE THE AGREEMENT. OF COURSE ONCE YOU CAME OUT
WITH THE AGREEMENT, YOU HAVE EVERY INDIVIDUAL THAT IS ASKING
FOR THEIR TAX PROVISION TO BE INCLUDED.
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WOULD CAUSE THE BILL TO DIE. KAILEY:
SO OBVIOUSLY IT MADE IT OUT OF MARKUP WITH NOT ALL THE CHANGES
THAT PROBABLY EVERYONE WANTED. WILL THIS BILL DIE ANYWAY?
DO YOU THINK IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT? ROHIT:
I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC. THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR TWO
PLUS YEARS. SOME OF THESE PROVISIONS
EXPIRED IN THE BEGINNING OF 2022. THIS IS PERHAPS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEEK IN THIS TWO PLUS YEAR JOURNEY.
NOT ONLY DID YOU HAVE A BICAMERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
TWO TAX COMMITTEE CHAIRS, BUT YOU GOT A 40-3 VOTE OUT OF THE
HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE. THIS IS NOT A COMMITTEE WHERE
40 MEMBERS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DIRECTION OF TAX POLICY.
SO THAT BIPARTISAN AGREEMENT, KUDOS TO CHAIRMAN SMITH AND
CHAIRMAN WYDEN. KATE WAS TALKING ON THE EARLIER
SEGMENT, THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF THIS THAT EVERYONE IS
UNHAPPY ABOUT, BUT THAT IS WHAT COMPROMISE LOOKS LIKE. JOE:
THAT SAID, COULD WE BE IN A WORLD WHERE THIS TAX DEAL
BECOMES LAW BUT WE STILL CANNOT MAKE A BUDGET? ROHIT:
ABSOLUTELY. THESE ARE TWO ENTIRELY SEPARATE
TRANSACTIONS. THIS TAX DEAL NET-NET IS
BASICALLY REVENUE NEUTRAL. I THINK IT IS LIKE $250 MILLION
ADDING TO THE DEFICIT OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS.
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL PROBABLY SPEND $250 WHILE WE
ARE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION, SO THAT IS A ROUNDING ERROR FOR
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. IT IS DIFFERENT FROM THE BUDGET.
THIS STARTS AT A BETTER, MORE BIPARTISAN LOCATION.
THE HOUSE IS OUT OF SESSION NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS SOME REASON TO BELIEVE HOUSE THEY TAKE THIS UP THE
WEEK OF JANUARY 29 WHEN THEY COME BACK ON THE SUSPENSION
CALENDAR, REQUIRING A TWO THIRDS VOTE.
THIS GOT 40 SOMETHING VOTES OUT OF THE HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS
COMMITTEE. EVERY EXPECTATION IT COULD
CLEAR THE FULL HOUSE, EVEN IF IT IS SUBJECT TO A TWO THIRDS
REQUIREMENT. KAILEY: THE 29TH MARKS THE BEGINNING OF
TAX SEASON. IF IT CANNOT BE PASSED BY THE
BEGINNING, HOW DOES THIS COMPLICATE THE MATTER OF FILING
TAXES THIS YEAR? HOW MUCH DOES TIMING NEED TO BE
A CONSIDERATION? ROHIT: THEY ADDED SOMETHING AFTER THE
INITIAL AGREEMENT WAS RELEASED, BEFORE THEY MARKED UP THE BILL
TODAY, THAT ADDRESSES THAT ISSUE.
PART OF THE COMPROMISE IS TO EXPAND THE CHILD TAX CREDIT FOR
CALENDAR YEAR 2023, WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE REFLECTED ON RETURNS
THAT WILL BE FILED STARTING AT THE END OF THIS MONTH INTO
FEBRUARY IN MARCH. THEY PUT IN A PROVISION THAT
GIVES THE IRS THE AUTHORITY, IF SOMEONE FILES THE RETURN BEFORE
THE LAWS CHANGE, THEN THE LAW IS SUBSEQUENTLY ENACTED, GIVES
THE IRS THE AUTHORITY TO ADJUST THE RETURNS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHER CREDIT AVAILABLE, ESSENTIALLY BUYING WIGGLE ROOM.
THERE IS JUST NO WAY THIS THING COMES LAW BEFORE JANUARY 29.
WHAT I HAVE BEEN HEARING FROM PEOPLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
AND THE WAY -- TO THE SERVICE AND THE WAY THEY PROCESS THESE
RETURNS, MID FEBRUARY IS WHEN THESE THINGS GET PROCESSED.
THIS WOULD BE A GREAT VALENTINE'S DAY GIFT I SUPPOSE.
THEY HAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM. EVEN AFTER THAT THEY HAVE A BIT
OF RUNNING ROOM. I DON'T KNOW THERE IS A MAGIC
DATE BEYOND WHICH IT GETS TOO LATE TO DO IT, EVEN IF THEY DID
IT MUCH LATER IN THE YEAR, PEOPLE CAN ALWAYS AMEND THE
RETURN AND GET THE ADDITIONAL BENEFIT. JOE: