Picture this, a colossal, gleaming spacecraft standing tall against the backdrop of that
glorious sky, ready to defy gravity and soar into the great unknown. Well, these days you
don’t need to imagine it a great deal. We saw scenes like this just a few weeks ago didn’t
we!? That's the magic of rocket flight, where we can transform our space exploration dreams
from mere science fiction into a tangible reality. But hold on there, because as mesmerizing as these
rocket launches are, there's one unsung hero that plays a crucial role in this celestial ballet. No
matter if it is the rocket launches themselves, or nail biting conclusions to missions re-entering
the atmosphere and touching down safe and sound. Yes, we are talking weather! Ok, I know, I know,
this isn’t a weather channel, it's a space flight channel right? Well you might be
surprised how intricately the two are linked, and how SpaceX is revolutionizing weather forecasting
at Starbase using artificial intelligence provided by Atmo. A new AI meteorology
startup that's building some of the most precise forecasts on Earth. But how!? And why is this so
critical to the future of space exploration? Hey, hey, Marcus House with you here! Just
think about it for a second. Imagine planning an epic journey into deep space. Your rocket,
the payload, and the crew on board, have spent years in development and training. Preparing
to launch in just minutes, thousands of tonnes of propellant are loaded, and the go/no-go poll
is running. Vehicle Readiness, Range Safety, Ground Infrastructure, Flight Path Analysis,
weather, is all clear. Ok, just rewind for a second. What was the one variable in that poll
that may be the hardest to accurately predict? You can run all the checks you want with the rocket,
payload, and the mission simply due to the mostly automated machines and controls designed into and
around the vehicle. You can’t however control the weather. Even in the final minutes of a countdown,
temperamental weather patterns can throw a mission into a tailspin. All those
years of planning this mission, and Mother Nature might have a few moves of her own.
Meteorology is a critical element of every launch we get to enjoy. Yes,
the powerful forces of weather can make all the difference for the success or failure of
space missions. Just think about all those weather related scrubs you’ve seen caused by wind, rain,
fog, or lightning. Atmospheric conditions are really the cause of most launches being scrubbed.
You could pretty much think of weather as being a silent gatekeeper to space actually. From the
early days of rocket launches, meteorologists have had the colossal challenge of predicting when it’s
safe to fly. Often scrubs occur simply out of an abundance of caution due the the fuzziness
of those predictions. As we head into the crazy future of daily, and perhaps even hourly launches,
we don’t want fuzziness in those predictions. With SpaceX alone setting an ambitious goal
of 144 missions in 2024, forecasting launch weather precisely every single day is vital.
This might surprise you but SpaceX at Starbase, among many other companies, have been utilizing
new revolutionary weather forecasting using artificial intelligence, and I’m incredibly
thrilled to have had the opportunity to partner up with Atmo for this video to dive deeper into
the evolution of this meteorology technology. Based in San Francisco, Atmo has been setting
new meteorological benchmarks for governments and militaries around the world. By using
massive Deep Learning Neural Networks like those found in ChatGPT, Atmo’s artificial
intelligence programs predict the next minute, hour, day, week, or month of weather with 100
times the detail of prior technologies. During SpaceX’s Integrated Flight Test 2,
just weeks ago, Atmo weather forecasting systems were deployed at SpaceX's iconic
Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas. What an incredible day for weather it was too,
and the Atmo crew were right there at Rocket Ranch to witness that mind blowing event.
I just love these stories. A partnership that is showing how artificial intelligence even has a
role to play in space exploration as we push the boundary of what's possible. Of course,
it isn’t just for predicting when it is best to launch rockets. Just think about the many events
requiring a clear weather report. Afterall, you don’t want these massive vehicles rolling down
the road if huge surprise wind gusts ramp up. Likewise you really don’t want to interrupt the
essential production bay construction either. So we're about to uncover the critical role of
meteorology in propelling us to the stars! Lets just wind back the clock a little way because
the genius of these new systems become very obvious when you see where we’ve come from.
Weather forecasting for space launches has evolved tremendously
since Sputnik first reached orbit in 1957. That was of course a far cry from the high-tech
field we know today. Back then, forecasting involved basic tools – thermometers, barometers,
and simple wind sensors. Meteorologists in fact relied heavily on direct observations
and rudimentary calculations. These figures were fed into the first digital computers,
such as the famed ENIAC and IBM 701. As we started launching astronauts into space in the 1960’s,
more advanced radars and supercomputers were deployed to try and crack weather forecasting.
The challenge, however, remained immense. It was still a guessing game to predict
conditions like winds at different altitudes, temperature variations,
or the potential for lightning. Launch scrubs from unexpected weather and even
weather accidents remained all too common, sometimes with extreme consequences.
One of the most dramatic examples was during the Apollo 12 mission in 1969. Just 36 seconds after
liftoff, the rocket was struck not once, but twice by lightning, causing a near-catastrophic
failure of the onboard electrical systems. The exhaust from Apollo’s massive F-1 engines became
a lightning rod, attracting strikes from the nearby storm clouds. The command module panel
was suddenly ablaze with warning lights, more than the astronauts had ever seen in training.
It was the quick thinking of a mission control EECOM officer, John Aaron, that saved the day.
With the simple but now legendary call of 'SCE to AUX' – a switch to a backup system – he guided
the crew to restore the critical telemetry data. Once in orbit, the astronauts needed to work for
hours to re-align the guidance system, allowing them to safely continue their lunar injection
burn and land on the surface of the moon. The Challenger disaster in 1986 was sadly a more
heartbreaking example. On a cold January morning, the space shuttle Challenger broke apart 73
seconds into its flight. Investigators later found that the unusually cold temperatures at the time
of launch, along with high vertical wind shear that day caused the failure of the O-rings in
the solid rocket boosters. This tragically led to the loss of seven astronauts, and that catastrophe
was a deadly reminder of the importance of weather predictions for launch decisions.
More recently, in May 2020, the highly anticipated Demo-2 mission for SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket,
carrying of course the Crew Dragon capsule, was scrubbed just 17 minutes before liftoff.
That mission was set to be historic, marking the first crewed flight to the International
Space Station from American soil in nearly a decade. However, the weather had other plans.
On that day, conditions at the Kennedy Space Center were less than ideal,
with an approaching storm bringing thick clouds and a risk of lightning. Launching
could have triggered a lightning strike, similar to the Apollo 12
incident. SpaceX of course prioritizing the safety of astronauts Bob Behnken and
Doug Hurley made the difficult decision to delay that launch. The Falcon 9 and Crew
Dragon were successfully launched a few days later when the weather had improved.
So shifting focus now back to Starbase in Boca Chica, we find a unique set of
meteorological challenges. This coastal site, near the volatile Gulf of Mexico, is a hotbed
for rapidly changing weather conditions. Here, we have a blend of high humidity,
gusting winds, thunder storms, and even tropical cyclones pose not just scheduling hurdles,
but real safety concerns. Boca Chica has seen temperatures soaring to record highs of around
100°F or 38°C, while humidity peaks at 90%. Thunderstorms are common and sometimes intense,
with the region experiencing an average of 43 stormy days per year.
Yes, the shifting sea breezes play the most crucial role at Starbase, impacting rocket
trajectories and launch windows. The Gulf is a breeding ground for tropical cyclones,
with historical wind records upwards of 100 mph or 160 kilometers per hour. Yea,
that is crazy! Such powerful winds can not only obviously delay launches, but also pose
risks to ground infrastructure. It is also useful to note that during a Starship launch,
gusting winds at Starbase can change direction and intensity throughout the entire trajectory.
In this dynamic environment, Atmo’s ultra-precise AI weather forecasts
become indispensable for SpaceX's ambitious missions. I was super thrilled to chat to the
Chief Technology Officer of Atmo, Johan Mathe, who was on hand at Boca Chica
for Starship’s second integrated flight test. Marcus: So thanks Johan for joining us here on
the channel. How did Atmo and SpaceX come together for this project, and what's the main goal of it?
Johan Mathe: Hey Marcus thanks for having me. Yeah we've been collaborating with SpaceX and
it's been very very exciting. We've been dramatically improving the technology of
weather forecasting for launches by using AI and deep neural nets. This allows us
to predict the weather in much more accurate detailed and run the models way way faster.
The end goal is really one thing, which is to improve the go no/go decision for SpaceX.
Marcus: Okay that sounds pretty groundbreaking.
What sort of new level of detail are we actually talking about?
Johan Mathe: Yeah, the Atmo forecast are about 100 times more detailed. That's the
difference between a Game Boy and a 4K TV. They're also way way faster. When it takes
about few hours for the public models to run the Atmo models can run every
18 seconds. Thousands of time faster. That allows us to run it way more often.
Marcus: Once you've got all those forecasts how are they communicated to SpaceX?
Johan Mathe: So we share our forecast in two ways. First by just pushing raw data to
SpaceX. The second is we've developed this app. Either online on the web,
or on mobile devices where you can really go and dig in into the weather forecast.
Marcus: So it must be super powerful for SpaceX. And they were using this
for the second integrated flight test right?
Johan Mathe: Absolutely the forecast was live during the second integrated flight
test at Starbase. We were very excited because we had the forecast in front
of our eyes. We knew from the forecast it was going to be a success on that front,
and just being there seeing the launch in front of our eyes was just such a transcendent
experience. And we were just so excited to be part of the magic.
Marcus: Oh for sure and this applies not just Starbase action but Falcon 9 launches and whatnot?
Johan Mathe: Yea, I think it's just the beginning for AI and launch weather technology. We just
deployed our system at Cape Canaveral where SpaceX also launches the Falcon 9’s. As we're
getting more and more launch sites we are basically making the technology better.
So, that is pretty astounding isn't it? And it was awesome getting some time there
with Johan to get that deep dive into Atmo's revolutionary work there at Starbase. Actually,
they sent me over a bunch of exclusive footage from the lead up to that crazy launch of Booster
9 and Ship 25. The day before the launch, they were on the ground, reviewing weather sensors,
checking the atmospheric models, and syncing with SpaceX's team. Every piece of data, every sensor
reading was vital, feeding into the models that predicted near-perfect conditions for the upcoming
launch. As dawn approached on launch day, November 18, 2023, the excitement was off the charts. The
early morning fog began to clear, unveiling that towering silhouette of the Starship. The weather,
once a concern, had turned into an ally. Winds were dying down, and clouds were parting, setting
the stage for the short 20 minute launch window beginning at 7am local Texas time. Atmo's team,
stationed there just three miles away at Rocket Ranch, watched with bated breath. The weather
models they had refined were now being put to the ultimate test. As the final countdown began,
the Starship roared to life. Its ascent was a thing of beauty, all engines firing smoothly.
A testament to human ingenuity, aided by the foresight of precise weather forecasting.
The rocket's rise was spectacular, cutting through the clear skies,
a solid hot staging there, and then, despite the eventual rapid unscheduled disassembly,
the mission was deemed a success. It was a bold step forward, a dance of technology
and nature, choreographed with the insights of advanced meteorology.
Now interestingly, in a twist of fate, just hours post-launch, the wind gusts had picked
right back up, reaching speeds that could have threatened the mission. This only underscored
the critical timing enabled by that precise forecasting. They had indeed seized a great
launch window when conditions were just right. In fact, the Atmo forecast had
seen clearly that future days would have precisely those stronger wind gusts. So,
as we look forward to the future of integration of AI powered space launch meteorology, mixed
with rocket science, this opens new horizons. As we push forward in the pursuit of Mars,
we've learned to read the language of Earth’s atmosphere. An indispensable co-pilot on this
journey. Especially so here at Starbase, where the power of artificial intelligence from Atmo,
and rocket science from SpaceX are combined to push launch meteorology to a whole new level.
A special thanks again to Atmo for spending so much time with me on this topic. If you want
to learn a bunch more there link is right there below to their social platforms. You
might be surprised just how beneficial this tech is to many more industries. I
hope you enjoyed this video! If you did, don’t forget to hit subscribe if you're
intrigued by the fusion of technology and space exploration. If you are still here watching,
thank you! That is a bunch of time you’ve given to me and I am grateful for that. You make this
channel what it is. Enjoy the rest of your week, and I’ll see you all In the next video!