AS SOME POINT, PEOPLE WILL
ON ECONOMIC GROWTH LET ME ASK
YOU ABOUT THE TRADE STORY DR.
GREENSPAN, BECAUSE YOU KNOW A
LOT OF PEOPLE AGREE WITH YOU,
OBVIOUSLY, WITH TAX CUT PLAN
WAS VERY POSITIVE FOR GROWTH,
BUT THERE IS ALSO THIS WORRY
OUT THERE, THAT THESE NEW
WORRIES OVER TRADE AND
POTENTIAL TRADE WAR THESE
TARIFFS ARE GOING TO CUT INTO
THAT GROWTH, DO YOU SEE IT
THAT WAY?
>> I DO INDEED.
REMEMBER WHAT REMEMBER WHAT
TARIFFS ARE.
THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY A TAX.
LIKE AN EXCISE TAX.
AND THEY WHEN IMPOSED WITHDRAW
PURCHASING POWER FROM THE
ECONOMY WHEN WE LOOK AT THE
TYPES OF TARIFFS WHICH THE
ADMINISTRATION IS SUGGESTING,
THAT DOES NOT BODE GOOD DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR THE FUTURE.
I THINK THERE IS A MISTAKEN
VIEW THAT SOMEHOW WHEN WE HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT MERCHANDISE
TRADE DEFICIT FOR EXAMPLE,
WITH CHINA, THAT THEY ARE
DOING SOMETHING.
WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING US.
BUT WE HAVE A TRADE DEFICIT
WITH CHINA LARGELY BECAUSE
AMERICANS ARE DECIDING TO BUY
CHINESE GOODS BECAUSE THEY ARE
CHEAPER THAN OURS.
THAT IS GOOD THAT IS THE WAY
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM OUGHT
TO WORK, AND TRYING TO BLOCK
IT IS A MISTAKE.
MARIA: WHAT ABOUT THE ISSUE
AND FORCING THE TRANSFER OF
TECHNOLOGY?
DO YOU BELIEVE PART OF THIS IS
JUST NEGOTIATING THIS
ADMINISTRATION AND THIS
PRESIDENT HAS DONE IN TERMS OF
MOVING THE NEEDLE ON THAT ON
THE I.T. THEFT.
>> NO, I THINK THAT IF YOU GO
BACK COUPLE DECADES WE USED TO
SEE SITUATIONS WHERE AN
AMERICAN COMPANY WOULD COME IN
WHEN A JOINT VENTURE WITH A
THEREAFTER AN IDENTICAL PLANT
WOULD BE BUILT SIDE-BY-SIDE
STEALING OUR TECHNOLOGY.
THEY HAVE DONE A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF THAT IN VARIOUS,
LEGITIMATE COMPLAINT.
CHINESE BUT THEIR -- THEY'VE
BEEN OBTAINING EXTRAORDINARY
AMOUNTS OF TECHNOLOGY BECAUSE
REMEMBER, THEY ARE GROWING AT
A VERY RAPIDLY RATE YOU CAN'T
DO THAT WITHOUT BEING A ACCESS
TO NEWER TECHNOLOGIES, ON THE
ISSUE HERE IS THAT CHINA IS
UNITED STATES IS.
THEY ARE BACKING TECHNOLOGIES
TO THE 1950S THERE THEREABOUTS
WHEN 1950S STEEL, ALUMINUM
WERE REALLY AVANT GUARD TIME
OF TECHNOLOGIES SO I DON'T
THINK IT IS -- WHAT WE'RE
TRYING TO DO IS PROP UP THE
AMERICAN ECONOMIES WHERE IT
WE'RE TRYING TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO 1950, 1960.
THAT IS NOT WHERE GLOBAL
TECHNOLOGY SHOULD BE.
>> IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU BELIEVE
THAT IT IS LEGITIMATE TO PUSH
BACK ON CHINA, WITH THE RIGHT
TO I.T. THEFT BUT NOT
LEGITIMATE TO TRY TO SAVE THE
INDUSTRIES OF STEEL AND
ALUMINUM WITH TARIFFS?
>> EXACTLY.
>> YEAH, THAT IS THAT IS A
PRETTY YOU KNOW -- WELL
FEELING OUT THERE ON PART OF
BUSINESS BECAUSE IT IF BOTH
ALUMINUM AND STEELE TARIFFS
HAVE CREATED RETALIATION HOW
SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN TERMS
OF CREATING A NEGATIVE GROWTH
STORY?
>> WELL, IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR
WE GO.
OF THAT SORT IS -- THE
EQUIVALENT OF A TAX INCREASE
ON AMERICANS.
THAT IS -- REMEMBER THAT WHO
IS PAYING THE INCREASE IN THE
PRICE OF STEEL, AND THE PRICE
OF ALUMINUM.
AMERICANS.
WE ARE BUYING IT.
THIS IS NOT THE WAY ONE SHOULD
COME AT THIS WE'RE DOING IT I
WOULD SAY WE ARE TRYING TO
MAJOR STEEL PRODUCER AND MAJOR
ALUMINUM PRODUCER.
>> YOU MAKE A REALLY IMPORTANT
POINT BECAUSE YOU ARE TALKING
ABOUT WHOLE NEW INDUSTRIES
LEADING IN GROWTH STORY IN
AMERICA LIKE ROBOTICS A.I. ALL
DIFFERENT THINGS BUT THE WHOLE
ISSUE WITH CHINA THEY WANT
THOSE INDUSTRIES TO LEAD THEIR
INDUSTRIES WHICH IS WHY
IS ABOUT PUSHING BACK WE WILL
SEE IF THIS IS AN ACTUAL
NEGOTIATION OR HOW FAR THIS
GOES IN TERMS OF TARIFFS.
>> YOU ARE ASKING ME HOW FOR
ABOUT A IT IS GOING TO GO?
>> I DON'T KNOW, WE WILL HAVE
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
BUT RIGHT NOW, DR. GREENSPAN,
WHAT THE ECONOMY FEEL LIKE IS
PRETTY GOOD, DO YOU DISAGREE
WITH WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT
TODAY, UNEMPLOYMENT 3.8% -- AT
CAUSED THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO
THAT MAYBE THINGS TURN DOWN IN
NEXT COUPLE YEARS, BUT THEN IT
>> I THINK YOU SHOULD NOT ASK
ME ABOUT FEDERAL RESERVE
POLICY BECAUSE YOU WON'T GET
AN ANSWER.
>> I KNEW THAT DR. GREENSPAN
CAN YOU CHARACTERIZE WHAT
WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW IN
TERMS OF OF THE ECONOMIC
STABILITY?
>> THE.
>> IN THE U.S..
VERY STRONG QUARTER WE KNOW
THAT NOW, WE -- HAVE ENOUGH
DATA AND STRENGTH ONE OF THE
LEGISLATED INDICATORS OF THIS
IS EXTRAORDINARY RISE IN CRUDE
OIL PRODUCTION TO A LESSER
EXTENT IN THE WHOLE
INFRASTRUCTURE INVOLVED IN
OIL.
IT -- IT I DON'T RECALL
I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING
RUSH THIS FAST IN THE FRACKING
HAS MADE EXTRAORDINARY CHANGES
IN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, AND
OUTPUT NOW OVER 10 MILLION
DOLLARS A DAY IS CLOSE TO
HIGHEST, RUSSIA IS HIGHER THAN
BUT VERY SLIGHTLY WE ARE
HIGHER THAN SAUDI ARABIA.
>> THAT IS INTERESTING THAT IS