Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about polling because as I've pointed out recently, polling is a
concern. But all of a sudden Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in multiple polls. What's going on
here? Well, I'll tell you why it's happening in a moment. Newsweek has a short write up
about it. Joe Biden suddenly leads Donald Trump in multiple polls. A rematch between Trump and Biden
has all but been confirmed. A series of polls have suggested Biden will narrowly beat Trump
in a November vote. But with eight months ago and the polls tight, this could change. And there are
still polls that say Trump is winning. So listen, the the data is not so much titillating. There's a
Kaiser Family Foundation poll. It says Biden's up. Three 4744. There's a never in college poll. It
says, Biden 51, Trump 49. That was done a few days ago. There is a tip polling poll that says Biden,
43, Trump 42. And then there are lots of polls that say that Trump is winning as well. When you
look at polls that include third party candidates like Robert F Kennedy Jr. Cornel West, etc.,
you get a variation of a couple of points. So let's break this down. In sort of order of
importance. Number one, the reason that Biden is increasingly doing better in some polls seems to
be tied to the perception of how the economy is going. People are slowly realizing things
are pretty good. It takes a while. The state of the Union speech helped. Numerous focus groups
went in. Not super confident that the country is heading in the right direction after watching the
Biden speech last week. Came out more likely to think the country is going in the right
direction. It takes a while to move those numbers as people believe the country is going in the
right direction. They're more likely to say, well, give me four more years of this rather than going
back to the orange guy. That's just the way that is. That's very simple. One of the things that's
a very interesting artifact of this is often when people are asked, how do you think the country's
doing? Is it going in the right direction or wrong direction? Some of the folks who say, I think
wrong direction, when you say, okay, how is your family doing? How is your household doing? How are
you doing? They'll say, oh, I'm actually doing fine. And a lot of that right direction, wrong
direction thing is based on the perception of how everybody else is doing. Because statistically,
empirically, most people we have poverty, we have homelessness, we have inequality. Okay. But most
people are doing okay. And one of the realities is that the more people are hearing from Joe Biden,
as evidenced by that state of the Union speech, the more they are inclined to support him,
the more people are hearing from Trump, the less inclined they seem to support him, because
every word from Trump is just dripping with the viscosity of narcissism and hubris. That's me,
mirroring the sort of stuff Vivek Ramaswamy said to me during our interview. On the other hand,
Biden gave a pretty solid speech, and things are sort of like pretty good overall now. There's
so many caveats here that I think are important, important to remember. We are only now officially
getting to where we know who the nominees will be. Now, people who follow this stuff closely,
like most of you, probably have known for, what, a year that it's almost certainly going to be
Trump versus Biden. But officially, it's still not even really the case. Biden's won every primary.
So far, Trump has won all but one primary, but everybody's dropped out, including Nikki Haley. So
we are now, even though it is still not official, it's finally becoming sort of official in the news
cycle that it will be Trump versus Biden that is going to make the polls more accurate. The
other important thing to keep in mind is that many of these polls still have eight, ten,
12% of the electorate missing, either because they say they're going to vote third party or
they just don't know yet. And so we I know that as a general concept, we would expect polling to
be quite reflective of the situation in November by the middle of March. I think it increasingly
is that. But there are still some factors here that are different. All of that being said, it's
going to be close and it'll come down to a few states. You know, Biden's going to win California.
Trump's going to win Texas. What's really going to matter is what happens in Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, maybe Florida, even though increasingly Florida goes red and
Democrats really don't need it to win. This is the situation. It is going to depend on me and on you
and on everybody. But, you know, going up to vote and saying, I care enough about the difference
between these competing visions and platforms, that I'm not going to stay home. I know most in my
audience are not going to stay home about people out there, who are not so, tied into the daily,
progress of this race. We just don't know what turnout it's going to be. But we will
talk about it. Let's take a break. We're going to hear from Brian Butler. We're going to hear
from so many of the other things that happened in the last 24 hours. Glad you're with me. Make sure
you're subscribed on YouTube. YouTube.com. Slash the David Pakman Show. We're about to go from 2
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