I know we focus on Tesla's market share for EVs, and how well it's doing.
We also focus on other various market shares like how the Chinese EVs are going,
and compare it to Tesla. We use EV market share as a metric on how we measure Tesla's success.
But this is a very 2 dimensional view on Tesla, and how Tesla is so different
from all the other EVs in that pie. Remember Elon is playing 3D chess, a pie chart is 2D.
Tesla doesn't have missions like other companies, such as 10% market share by 2025.
Tesla has missions like, help move the world of sustainable energy. That's quite the difference.
Now every year there are perhaps about 80 million vehicle sales, yet something like
2 billion on the roads. Every year new cars account for 4% of the total global fleet.
There are two options here you see. Perhaps if Tesla achieved a 10%
market share of new autos they might be selling 8 million vehicles a year. That would be 8 million
more EVs added to the road and somewhat 8 million fewer ICE vehicles on the roads.
But 8 million a year, compared to 2 billion total vehicles or less than half a percent of
the global fleet replaced every year. This is not a feasible mission. Even if all the other market
share of new autos even were 100% electric, this would still take decades to replace,
even with the help of governments and competition. It will be a slow transition.
Therefore selling new cars is not the most efficient way of Tesla achieving its mission.
Tesla's hardware takes so long to ramp up, when compared to say Apple's. It will just
take too long until Tesla and all other EV manufacturers replace the global fleet.
A lot of money will flood that industry and prices of fossil fuels will likely rise, putting more
pressure on electric and renewables. It will still all take a lot of time. Therefore Tesla wants to
leverage this as much as possible. To find a way that will have the most impact the fastest.
So yea, you have guessed it. Tesla's Robotaxis will be the most efficient,
feasible, and the quickest way we know, of transitioning the world from fossil fuels. If each
Robotaxi replaces 5 ICE vehicles. If Tesla really think its possible before even soon after 2025,
then I understand, go for it. And of course It's just so profitable. It can fund so much of the
rest of the mission. It would be more than enough income to fund everything Tesla wants to do.
Tesla are not competing against new BMWs, Tesla are competing against used BMWs, and used Fords,
and Toyotas. Tesla are offering Robotaxis, as a lower cost form of transport, compared
to even owning a used car. Except of a higher standard, but of course the main feature that
it drives itself and you can just use your phone during the entire journey, or even watch Netflix.
The legacy autos can go ahead and make all the cool EVs they want. There could be a
good market for them. As its possible Tesla may not even sell to the public any more.
Tesla might have been bluffing the whole way. They forced legacy to make EVs, and then the legacy
customers have spoken, and said, yes, thats what we want, electric Hyundais. And perhaps
eventually their range will be more reasonable, and they may adopt Tesla FSD and chargers.
Tesla are not trying to be a part of the 80 million vehicles a year new auto industry,
Telsa want to replace as much of the other 2 billion fleet as quickly as possible. Get it?
Rather than slowly replacing new ICE cars, that are generally relatively fuel efficient compared
to much older vehicles, still on the road. Tesla is replacing these much older vehicles.
Robotaxis will need to be ubiquitous, for people to replace their vehicles,
and have them to you in most areas in perhaps as quickly as a minute. Due to the lower cost
of running a robotaxi compared to a normal taxi, it is feasible to have a lot more per capita.
If a Robotaxi replaces 5 vehicles, then perhaps a Robotaxi is feasible enough to have 1 Robotaxi
per 5 customers. Tesla may even arrange it so that you get to ride in the same robotaxi as much as
possible, and share the same taxi with just 4 other users. Or at least use as few Robotaxis
as possible. It would be more hygenic, and likely mean that the passenger will look after it better.
I am hoping that in as many nations as possible, eventually when Robotaxis proliferate that far
around the world, many people will choose to pool in them. If there was even 2 people in each
vehicle then that could replace 10 cars. We talk about leverage, well a Robotaxi is the leverage
of removing 5 ICE vehicles off the road. Then pooling in Robotaxis, with 4 people in the car,
is the equivalent of potentially 20 vehicles off the road, per Robotaxi. Perhaps Tesla
will try to heavily encourage pooling in some nations where pollution is bad.
If Robotaxis could replace 10 vehicles per Robotaxi, on an average global scale,
including other various efficiencies after years of advancements. Then from that 2 billion fleet,
suddenly Tesla only need 200 million total. Ok, I am simplifying that a great deal,
but you get what I am implying. Tesla are not going for the 20 million a year sales,
they are going for the other 2 billion car owners. Of that 2 billion, it's possible that a Robotaxi
might be capable of replacing 1 billion of those. If the average drive drove 10,000 miles a year,
that would be 10 trillion miles. If Tesla made 30c a mile, that's $3 trillion a year.
It's these older cars that do more damage to the environment anyway,
they also have a higher running cost, it all makes perfect sense the more I think about it.
Tesla are trying to make one or two hundred million vehicles as quickly as possible.
Elon has spooked the entire auto industry, and made them osborne and cannibalize their
ICE business. Some of them may make the transition, but Tesla don't care,
Tesla were never a car company. Get it? What we've been saying all along. Tesla is not a car company.
It is just valued like one. Tesla is a robotics AI company or something more along those lines,
we all say. Well here you go, this is Tesla being a Robotic AI company, not a car company.
If Tesla were making 20 million Robotaxis a year, then it would only take 10 years until there 200
million. Robotaxis make everything sound that much more possible. Now we just need to hope
Tesla has worked out how they are going to get all that extra energy to power these vehicles.
Of course Boring Tunnels make Robotaxis potentially 10 times more valuable
in some areas. Imagine a Robotaxi that can get from one side of new york to the other
in a few minutes. For a start consider how much extra people would pay for that too.
I have said before, that Boring Company could be more valuable than Tesla. And this is the reason.
Imagine a tool that adds 10 times, or even more, value to Robotaxis. It's incomprehensible.
How has Tesla and Boring added this much value to a company and economy?
Well like we said, imagine if you can get a Robotaxi from your house,
somewhere in a large busy city, and then get taken right to the city center,
and dropped outside the shop you wanted, within perhaps 10 mins. A trip that would have normally
taken perhaps an hour, including parking, and cost a lot, let alone the cost of owning a car.
Boring tunnels and robotaxis make the world closer. We will just have to hope Boring Company
does more, and finds a way to tunnel faster, then a way to make lots of these boring machines.
Robotaxis will most likely be successful in cities,
where populations are more dense. And slowly spread out to less densely populated areas.
Living in a city, it can cost a lot to own and run a car, Robotaxi would
be incredibly convenient. There is of course a lot more value in robotaxis within a city.
Anyway, it sounds like Tesla have about 100 times more 3s and Ys to make, then
maybe we might see a new model launch. Sorry if Tesla was quite as exciting as company as
you hoped, with insane bulletproof vehicles, or cars that fly to 60 miles in one second.
It would be nice to at least get a demo. But Tesla is an engineering company,
and they like to show, or tell use things that they have done, that are physically possible.
Remember 3D Chess, or 4D as some people also like to say, but I don't the the number of dimensions
matter a great deal. Elon is a great illusionist, misdirecting the competition, so much so, that he
was only pretending they were the competition in the first place. But it ended up forcing them to
make EVs. Elon has a much bigger mission, in a much bigger market. Imagine every car you make,
earning every year, the same it cost to produce in the first place. That is an amazing return.
Tesla's mission was transition the world to sustainable energy.
If Tesla trick a bunch of legacy companies into moving out of fossil fuels a lot earlier,
than that all aligns with the mission too. Tesla doesn't have to do it all themselves.
(not sure abotu this paragraph, maybe dont say it) With legacy autos, once the car is sold,
then a lot of money is made on servicing and parts over the lifetime of the vehicle.
Robotaxis also keep generating income after they are produced, except on a massive scale.