his newsweek politics with gave batman welcome back to the repulsive sounded
happened we were talking earlier about which tea party candidate has the best
shot at winning and we have a very
unprofessional informal poll
all up at mid-week politics dot com just which one do you think is the best shot
of winning so log on and
and cast your vote so to speak but to talk to us about actual
real professional polls that that people are doing certainly nothing were were
quick to do is scott heater on the phone director survey research from the pew
research center hey scott
yeah no problem so tell me which of the so-called tea party candidates do you
think has the best shot at winning based on the poll
well miller an alaska fishery or and sharon angle at this point is
neck-and-neck with harry reid in
now that i mean i think those are two you know potentially consequential ones
and then i think you know there are a number of others that uh... may have
benefited from the support of the tea party or have
you know directly allied themselves pat toomey in pennsylvania
marco rubio in florida so dignity party influence is pretty strong and then
several of those canada turbo herb
very likely to win the conventional wisdom that we hear kind of repeated a
lot on t_v_ and radio is both christine o'donnell's race and share angles race
had somebody else been the republican nominee
the republicans would have essentially been she wins it would've been almost a
gun
guaranteed c but that now that some doubt
are their polls that back that up i mean is that is that how it went
well i haven't
seen i haven't seen any direct bolt that would permit at this point in the
campaign are asking well here
so-and-so where the candidate
in nevada we know which you
for the republican or for a retreat but in other words in nevada prior to share
angle being than being the nominee and in either a generic poll
or anything
all with the other potential candidate was there any indication that that rege
there
yes yes
dat absolutely ta and admitted the reason i'm m equivocating a little bit
at this point is that
you see any candidate any light candidate is going to have some
liabilities and their you know that the campaigns are going to gear themselves
around
finding finding those liabilities
indication of the read bengal race though you have this odd dynamic in
nevada where much of the republican political establishment
as abandons her and a supporting hairy reacting kisses
and probably a fairly
straightforward calculation that harry reid is it better for
the batting in terms of what he can deliver to the state
as well as you know uh... dislike of her feeling that he's too extreme
you know in the politics today it's not
clear that having the establishment
of your own party against you is is a liability at least in terms of firing up
the base
and is it doesn't
ruler is there any evidence that overall kind of separate from this race harry
reid is not particularly popular in in his home state yes c_e_e_ its approval
rating have been have not been good
bob's so he did you know he's he is um...
he's not a particularly well liked figure there
and uh... you know he was right for a challenge hitters turned out that in
this case
he probably has drawn
a weaker opponent in terms of broader broad appeal then you know some others
that uh... might've might have ah... you know ben then
a matched up with him we were talking
earlier about how excited we are to see
e but how christine o'donnell does in this debate that's coming up that will
be moderated by wolf blitzer q what do we have any poles or anything we can
look at that gives us a sense of what people actually think about
you know that she's taken a position on masturbation
in that she did the whole witchcraft there
hand i know these different
funny statements that she's made is their anything out there that we can
look at other than just very informal you know cnn.com type polls that tells
us anything about what people think about that type of stuff while i was
talking to a pollster cali in in delaware and
you know he reminded me of the fact that she wanted
nomination with a very very small
turned out of the rip of the republican electorate exploratory concentrated in
the more conservative southern regions of the of the state she does not have
strong brought back in even from her own party
themselves i think that
the way in which her opponent of the democratic opponent consistent
conducting himself suggested he's really not worried
in fact maybe he's more worried that continued you know is that if he
personally attacks her forks
the things that she said that it would you know potentially backfire and so
he's taking a kind of high road approach
you know and of course other groups and news organizations have been
leveling the
the criticisms
what what does it look like an imp what was the recent polling said
a did certainly from what i'm looking at the consensus is she won't win but are
we talking fifty five forty five or what's it looking like well lead this is
really one of the only reason in the country where the democrats can look at
it and say
well that's
you know that uh... that's a good lead in this environment
monmouth university gannett did a poll
uh... i just in the last few days
that has uh... curtains up by nineteen point
job there were there was a partisan poll that had him up by eight p fox news
voltaire they have
they have uh... him up by sixteen so cold and that's interesting internally
in the polling industry which you are of course if
we'll working in
fox news polls are considered partisan
well embarrassed if you know there's a debate about that and one can look at
their questions and say well are these questions
you don't get the straightforward or or not
you know most of my fellow polling professionals feel that their sample
are not tilted unum republican direction that they've
you know they have injure intermittent her overall numbers of uh... let's say a
bomb approval in there
estimates of the house generic bugged
you know they've been within the range of other polling and that has
historically been the case
uh... if my memory serves me they actually may have been one of the only
polls
in two thousand four thirty showed
carried with a slight advantage over george w_ bush in the final analysis so
you know i don't think it's a case that their samples or are tilted
you know reasonable people can disagree about whether their questions are
straightforward or not but
you know that that's not my place to place unlikable minutes we have here a
few put out this interesting religion study and we talked about it kind of
that length last week on the show and the results were incorrectly if i'm
wrong that on a thirty-two quest
contest with
the about world religions anything is an agnostic seems to
do the best or no the
most is that right betty s that is correct him
you know my colleagues at the peer forum on religion did this i played up played
small role in the study death and i'd hate all of us were
uh... amazed at the way it turned out
uh... interviews did that almost as well as a pure sitting up six and mormons did
almost as well
and those are three groups bitter
better educated than the average american but do you know when you take
into account social background
those groups all three of them no more about religion then two years have
returned protestant
or catholics in the united states we went through
both my producer and i took the fifteen question version that was linked to from
the few saying i got a thirteen louis only got a ten india that's that we can
talk about lewis's biases
different time but the senate the reaction was from awesome from some of
our audience members was that it wasn't so much a test about religion in faith
as much as simply trivia it's just thirty two bits of trivia
well you know that it's uh... that is a criticism that we've heard not only
about this study but about our news knowledge quizzes which people you know
can
can see and taken p research dot org yeah but
what what we find in the
in this business where and i've been studying knowledge of politics and other
things for a long time is that these questions none of these questions
alone the is
the most critical thing you need to know about religion like what they are is
indicators of what people not we know that if people know
some of these things they're likely to no other tanks and so they're their
indicators of how well steep people are
that the the literature or the word the bible uh... as well as in terms of world
religions things like the geography of where
where muslims live and you know where wear boots live mac that that kind of
information is we would argue relevant to talk to people
decision making into their thinking about religion but by no means are these
the only for the most important facts
who was a fascinating study we've been speaking with scott either director
survey research at the few research center pleasure as always got thanks
very much for having me to health care will talk to see op bank
alright interesting stuff louis so i think that i've i'd like that answer
that is a good
it's is just a barometer of what people know it doesn't mean anything in
loot but the tells us a lot
right and it's also
if you're open of are going to start people questions about the borrowing or
things actually mean
first african interpretation so it's like what you really know
about the buyer already religious
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