Hi, everybody.
I'm KHOU 11 meteorologist Pat Callan,
coming to you from Houston,
TX with the latest on Tropical Storm Ian.
This is for Saturday evening,
September 24th, 2022.
So there's a storm right now just
to the South of Jamaica here
in the middle of the Caribbean.
Winds sustained at 45 mph,
still moving to the West,
so we don't have that northward movement yet.
Moving to the West at
about 15 mph in the storm.
Not looking super healthy at the moment,
but there are a few features here
that I want to point out to you
on the latest satellite imagery.
One, we've got a big core.
Thunderstorms right around
the center of the system,
so that's a good sign for strengthening.
You want all those thunderstorms
consolidated around the center.
Another feature that's interesting
is we start to see this venting
now on the upper levels and you
can see it better during the
day with visible satellite.
Obviously now that the sun's down,
we don't have visible,
so we we're using infrared satellite.
But with this satellite picture
you get the sense that we're in
these kind of arms extending out
from the center of the storm.
That is a sign of outflow,
which is a sign that the storm
again is in a healthy.
Environment for strengthening.
So a lot of things going for this storm
as we get into the overnight hours
and we're expecting some big changes
as we get into the day tomorrow.
So here's the latest forecast from
the National Hurricane Center.
A few things that I want to point out to you.
Again,
it's a 45 mile per hour storm
as of Saturday evening.
By the time we get to Monday afternoon,
it's a 110 mile per hour
category two hurricane.
It's a huge jump in wind speed
in a very short period of time.
So we're expecting some
rapid intensification.
Potentially as we go through
the next 24 to 36 hours,
and then by Monday night into
Tuesday morning as this thing
approaches the Yucatan Channel
in between the Yucatan Peninsula
and the West Coast of Cuba,
this thing could be a major
category three hurricane with
winds sustained at 125 mph.
Where does it go from there?
A lot of questions still remain.
We got a really wide envelope of
possibilities anywhere from Southwest
Florida here towards the Naples area.
Cutting across towards West Palm
Beach and eventually up into the
Orlando area all the way across the
Panhandle of the state towards Pensacola.
So a huge range of possibilities here.
Don't just focus on the center,
this just represents the the the mean
of all the different paths that this
thing could take based on this forecast.
But it could go the center of the
storm can go anywhere within this cone.
So anywhere,
anywhere from the eastern edge here,
right through the center and
also up towards the western edge,
you really do have to look at
the entire cone,
the entire picture.
What we're talking about
these hurricane forecasts,
but look at the intensity here.
And this intensity is also going
to be dependent upon how much
interaction we see with land as it
passes by the West End of Cuba,
it stays over the Yucatan Channel.
This thing could easily make a run
at Category 5 hurricane status
as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Obviously, that is going to
be the worst case scenario.
And then from there we really have to
figure out where this thing is going.
But I would say that anyone here pretty
much from New Orleans all the way.
Down through Florida needs to be
watched this very carefully here
as we go through the next few days.
So hurricane warning,
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
here for the Cayman Islands.
Nothing yet for Cuba as of the
7:00 PM advisory.
I expect that to change either later
tonight or as we get into tomorrow morning.
Rainfall is going to be a big story,
you know,
despite the fact that we're going
to see a big wind maker here
for the western half of Cuba.
I mean flash flooding, mud slides,
huge concern here again from Havana
all the way points towards the West.
Notice though,
even as this storm.
Takes a close brush with the Yucatan
Peninsula.
Look at how fast the rain totals drop off.
Here we go from a foot in terms
of rain totals to maybe an
inch at best towards Cancun,
and the reason for that is because the
worst side of the storm is always to
the east of the center of circulation.
So from the caiman islands,
even parts of Jamaica could see
flash flooding in a few spots,
especially in the South end of the island.
But from Jamaica up to the Cayman Islands,
and especially into the western half of Cuba,
we're expecting the potential for
flash flooding and mud slides,
regardless of the exact track
that this storm. Takes.
So why is there so much uncertainty?
And you may have been hearing about this?
We don't exactly know where the storm goes.
The track has shifted to the West.
What's going on?
There's a few key players.
We're going to start off with the
model plots because this is what we
use to make our official forecast.
National Hurricane Center takes all of the
computer simulations that are out there.
They they they run all these different
types of variations on models to get a
consensus as to where exactly a storm may go,
right?
So they don't just look at one,
they look at two, they look at a huge suite.
Of models.
And then from there they
actually make the forecast.
Based on what they've seen
historically in the past,
so Friday evening,
this is what the model plots
were looking like,
generally favoring the the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico,
the West Coast of Florida,
specifically the Tampa Bay area,
all the way down towards Southwest
Florida with the potential to see
this going into the Big Bend coast.
That was the consensus yesterday evening,
24 hours later.
So we'll draw this line just to show you
where the consensus was Friday evening.
This is where we are now.
So 24 hours later, we've had a huge jog.
To the West.
And that's why there's still a
lot of uncertainty as to exactly
where this system goes.
In fact, parts of South Florida are
now out of the official forecast
calling from the National Hurricane
Center and the Hurricane Center's
forecast cones always lag a little
bit behind these changes because
the Hurricane Center isn't going to
just change at the drop of a dime
because models change from run to run.
So they what they need to do is they
actually have to look for trends, right?
They got to go 612 hours,
see how the models trend.
If this is just one blip on the radar,
right,
the models just go West for one run
and then they end up going back East.
They're not gonna change the
forecast that much,
but if run after run after run,
they start to see these models continuing
to drift W that forecast will follow.
And we saw that this afternoon.
The Hurricane Center nudged it
a little farther WI suspect at
10:00 o'clock central time.
Tonight we're going to see it even farther
to the West just because that's been the
trend on the models pretty much all day long.
So what is driving the direction
that Ian goes in?
We've got three players.
On the map,
we've got an area of high
pressure over the four corners.
We've got another high here
that's just the South of Bermuda.
And then this dashed line that
indicates a surface through and
typically surface troughs are
associated with cold fronts.
And these areas of lower pressure in
the atmosphere can help suck in other
areas of low pressure like hurricanes.
And that's the placement of where
all three of these features
will be as we get into Tuesday.
So pay attention to the timing.
Timing is really important here.
We'll talk about the highs first
and the roles that these will play.
From the storm this high is going
to try to push into the east.
This high is going to try to act
to push in towards the West to get
that squeeze play here where this
storm can go anywhere in between
the influence of those highs,
that's really the big steering current here.
The other player that comes into
the equation is this trough.
That trough is going to be a really
a game changer here as we get
into the middle part of the week.
And the reason why is some computer
simulations have a little farther
to the north.
And if that's the case,
it's going to leave Iran in this regime
in the Gulf of Mexico where there
aren't many factors that are
going to push it or steer it.
Whereas if it's far enough S,
this thing's going to get sucked
right up into that through.
Along the cold front and pulled to the north.
So again, a lot of moving pieces here.
We're still about four or five days
away from getting to this point.
So until then,
you're going to see changes in the forecast.
That's why it's really important
that everyone stays on top of this.
So let's talk near term.
This is one of our high resolution
in-house computer models.
And again, as we get into tomorrow morning,
it's still in the middle of the Caribbean.
So here's Jamaica out here.
Here are the Cayman Islands,
here's Central America here.
So we're not talking about any
land interaction for tomorrow.
But we are starting to see
a little more organization.
Notice the outer rain bands here
extending all the way out towards Jamaica.
West side, you're OK,
Cayman Islands.
You'll probably start to see some
of the rain as we get into Sunday
evening as the storm starts to expand
and it starts to become a lot more
organized Sunday night into Monday.
What a difference in structure,
at least on radar.
You know,
we've got really well defined rain
bands extending into the Cayman
Islands and all the way N into
the southwestern part of Cuba.
We've got a well.
Defined eye,
and that is where we expect that rapid
intensification to really take off.
We go from a category one hurricane at
that point to a category three storm.
And on this particular model run.
Again. Take this with a grain of salt.
This is just one of many.
This actually takes it right over Cuba,
but here's the official forecast track
from the National Hurricane Center.
So it's a little to the West of
this one particular computer model.
Bottom line though,
with this illustrates a really
well defined and compact.
Hurricane, outer rain bands expanding,
expanding,
expanding all the way down towards
the Cayman Islands and you get
that really well defined and
healthy looking eyewall.
So regardless of where the storm is,
by Tuesday morning it's going to
be a very healthy looking storm.
And then by that point we're going to
have a really good idea of where it's going.
But right now the jury is still out.
So here's two of our longer
range computer models.
So I just showed you was that short
range computer model that gives us
the forecast out to about 60 hours.
These are the two big ones that we use,
the American in yellow.
The euro in red,
you can see they're pretty much
on top of each other in agreement
as we get into tomorrow.
Watch what happens though,
as we get into Tuesday.
That's where things start to diverge
and we just saw this on that high
resolution model where it took
it over the West Coast of Cuba.
That's kind of in line here
with the European simulation.
The American model though,
keeps it over the Yucatan Channel.
Doesn't seem like a big difference,
but this is going to have big implications
down the road in terms of does it
continue towards the north and east
into Florida or does it go north?
Towards the Panhandle,
or maybe even points farther
to the West of that.
Because depending on exactly where it is,
we'll ultimately determine where it
interacts with that surface through
with that cold front that's coming in.
The good news though is that they're pretty
good in agreement when it comes to timing.
So we are talking about by Tuesday
this thing is starting to emerge
into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
And then from there what happens,
and again, this is not meant to scare you.
This is,
this is the working forecast right
now using these computer models,
American again,
continuing that northward
track towards the Panhandle.
The euro continues that northeastward
track towards Southwest Florida,
anywhere from Fort Myers,
Naples and the Tampa Bay area
somewhere in that envelope.
All the way across,
pretty much along the I4 quarter
towards Orlando and the Space Coast.
And then from there,
you know it's anyone's guess,
but this is by Wednesday,
so Wednesday, Thursday,
we could start to see the impacts,
the first impacts across the United States,
whether it's the Florida peninsula,
the Florida Panhandle or even again
don't let your guard down as far
West as New Orleans just based on
what we're seeing with these trends.
Again,
the trends don't go that far West right now,
but if they continue that could be
that could be in play here as we get
into the middle part of the week.
So here's more of a breakdown.
Again, American computer model.
This is for Wednesday, September 28th.
The American model still has this
thing over the Gulf of Mexico,
over open water.
Big impact still, though,
to Florida,
because it's on The Dirty side
of the storm there,
on the east side of the storm's
European model potential landfall
either Wednesday night or Thursday.
Again,
you want to go with the official forecast,
the National Hurricane Center,
because these simulations
change every few hours.
The Hurricane Center, folks,
they take these forecasts.
Sit down.
They look at him and they say what
has been historically more accurate,
which models handling the storm better.
They look at a whole slew of data
and information and that's how
you get the working forecast.
So you want to stand top of this
because it is going to be changing here
as we go through the next few days.
So with that in mind.
I know this might sound silly,
but pretty much everyone in the
yellow and right here needs to keep
a very close eye on this forecast,
at least for the next,
I would say 24 to 48 hours.
And then we're really going,
you're gonna notice this,
this map is really going to tighten up
as we get into tomorrow evening and
then more so as we get into Monday.
Once the storm starts to organize better,
the models will have a better
idea of where it's going. OK.
The models need a really well
defined area of of circulation to
pinpoint where storms going to go,
because think about it,
if the data the model gets.
To produce a forecast is bad.
The forecast is going to be bad.
So the better the information
that goes into the model,
the better the information
that comes out of the model.
And right now we don't have a great center,
you know,
a great defined center of circulation
with this storm that will be different.
As we get into tomorrow,
we'll have a better idea,
I think more confidence going
into Sunday night and Monday.
But until then definitely West Coast,
Cuba Key West.
The Florida Keys,
definitely want to watch this.
And then really anywhere from the
Everglades going up towards the.
And then coast to Florida,
we are expecting some sort of
significant impacts because again,
even if the storm stays on that
westernmost track over the Gulf of Mexico,
you are on The Dirty side of the storm.
So we're talking about wind surge,
a huge concern.
West Coast of Florida,
very susceptible to storm surge
because of how far out the continental
shelf extends under the water.
Basically the water is really shallow about,
you know,
a couple 100 miles offshore.
And basically what that does is it
allows the water to pile up and it
pushes inland a little farther.
So storm surge is a big concern for
the West Coast of Florida regardless
of where this thing makes landfall
and rain and maybe even the chance
for a few isolated tornadoes.
Big concern.
So more impact likely for Florida,
especially West Coast, Florida.
But the direct landfall location,
anyone's guess.
So you want to monitor the
forecast everywhere from yeah,
here in Houston,
TX.
Two New Orleans all the way down to Florida
here as we get into the next few days.
So that's a lot of information,
but that's the latest on Tropical Storm Ian.
As of this Saturday,
new information coming out probably about
every 12 hours on this YouTube channel.
We are constantly updating.
We are constantly bringing you the
latest analysis and information,
so please follow along for the latest.
You can also follow us here on social
media and we hope to see you next time.
Thanks for watching.