NOT COME DOWN UNTIL CHILDREN SEPARATED FROM THEIR PARENTS AT
THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER WERE
REUNITED.
REUNITED. >>> PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE
WANTS LEGAL IMMIGRATION CUT IN
HALF, BECAUSE LOW-SKILLED
FOREIGN WORKERS ARE COSTING
AMERICAN JOBS AND WAGES.
THAT IS SIMPLY NOT TRUE.
WHEN WE DISCUSSED THE
IMMIGRATION DEBATE IN OUR
COUNTRY, DETRACTORS SAY THEY
FEAR AN INFLUX OF IMMIGRANTS
THAT LEADS TO A LOSS IN JOBS FOR
NATIVE BORN WORKERS.
YET TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE 6.7 MILLION
JOB OPENINGS, AND 6.4 MILLION
AVAILABLE WORKERS TO FILL THEM.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE
AVAILABLE WORKERS AREN’T EITHER
PROPERLY TRAINED FOR THE OPEN
JOBS OR THEY DON’T LIVE CLOSE TO
WHERE THE JOBS ARE.
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT
MAY INDICATE WE NEED MORE
IMMIGRATION, NOT LESS.
THE NUMBER OF BIRTHS IN THE
UNITED STATES DROPPED 2% BETWEEN
2016 AND 2017.
SO THE LOWEST FERTILITY RATE IN
30 YEARS.
30 YEARS. THIS IS COMMON IN ALMOST ALL
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. AS PEOPLE GET MORE PROSPEROUS,
THEY HAVE FEWER CHILDREN.
BY 2035, WITHOUT IMMIGRANTS, THE
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL
ESTIMATES THE WORKING AGE
POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES
COULD DROP BY ALMOST 8 MILLION
FROM RECENT FIGURES.
WE NEED IMGRANTS TO FILL THE
OPEN JOBS IN OUR COUNTRY, UNLESS
WE ALL START HAVING MORE
CHILDREN.
CHILDREN. WHEN IMMIGRANTS COME IN, THEY
PAY TAXES.
PAY TAXES. THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA WAS
STUDIED TO PROVIDE AN ECONOMIC
SNAP SHOP OF FOREIGN BORN
WORKERS.
WORKERS. IMMIGRANTS EARNED $1.6 BILLION
IN INCOME IN 2016 AND PAID $430
MILLION IN TAXES.
ANOTHER STUDY FROM THE NATIONAL
ACADEMIES OF SCIENCE,
ENGINEERING AND MEDICINE FOUND
THAT FIRST GENERATION IMMIGRANTS
CAN IMPOSE COSTS ON GOVERNMENT,
BUT AS ADULTS, THE CHILDREN TURN
INTO THE STRONGEST ECONOMIC
CONTRIBUTORS IN THE U.S.
POPULATION, PAYING MORE IN TAXES
THAN EVEN OTHER AMERICANS.
HERE’S HOW ONE FORMER PRESIDENT
FRAMED IMMIGRATION IN AMERICA.
>> THROUGH THIS GOLDEN DOOR HAS
COME MILLIONS OF MEN AND WOMEN.
THESE FAMILIES CAME HERE TO
WORK.
WORK. THEY DIDN’T ASK WHAT THIS
COUNTRY COULD DO FOR THEM BUT
WHAT THEY COULD DO TO MAKE THIS
REFUGE THE GREATEST HOME OF
FREEDOM IN HISTORY.
LET’S PLEDGE TO EACH OTHER THAT
WE CAN MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.
>> THAT OF COURSE IS FORMER
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN.
JOINING ME NOW IS SENIOR FELLOW
AT THE CENTER OF BUDGET
PRIORITIES, JARED BURNSTEIN.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
WE’VE BANDIED THIS TOPIC AROUND,
BUT THE HEADLINE HERE IS THAT
THERE ARE MORE JOBS THAN
WORKERS.
WORKERS. THAT’S A GOOD HEADLINE.
BUT LOOK 10 OR 20 YEARS DOWN THE
LINE, AND THAT WILL READ VERY
DIFFERENTLY.
DIFFERENTLY. WE’RE GOING TO BE SHORT OF
WORKERS IF PRESIDENT TRUMP,
LISTENING TO HIS IMMIGRATION
ADVISER STEVEN MILLER, GET THEIR
WAY.
WAY. WE NEED TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM OF
6.4 MILLION AVAILABLE WORKERS
WHO ARE NOT TRAINED FOR THE
OPENING JOBS.
OPENING JOBS. BUT IN FACT, WITHOUT
IMMIGRATION, AMERICA SUFFERS.
>> I THINK THE KEENUMER YOU ERER
NUMBER IS WITHOUT IMMIGRATION,
THE LABOR FORCE WOULD SHRINK BY
MILLIONS.
MILLIONS. SO THAT IS THE KEY FAK TOIDCTFAC
IT’S THE FACT THAT THE BABY
BOOMERS, AND I’M AMONG THEM, ARE
AGING OUT OF THE POPULATION.
WHEN THE BABY BOOMERS WERE IN
FULL FORCE, LABOR SUPPLY WAS
GROWING AT 2% PER YEAR.
NOW IT’S GROWING AT ABOUT HALF A
PERCENT PERREE. EEYEAR.
SO ONE-FOURTH THAT RATE.
SO THERE’S REAL PRESSURE ON THE
SUPPLY OF LABOR WHICH IS A KEY
INPUT TO ECONOMIC GROWTH.
BASICALLY, AND THIS IS SOMETHING
OUR VIEWERS ARE VERY MUCH INTO
IT, THE IMMIGRATION PROGRAM
UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
IS BASED PURELY ON
ANTI-IMMIGRATION, ON XENOPHOBIA,
ON MYTHS OF WHAT IMMIGRANTS DO
AND NOT SOUND ECONOMICS.
>> IN FACT, I’M JUST PUTTING UP
A GRAPHIC HERE.
THE LABOR DEPARTMENT ESTIMATES
THE OVER 70 POPULATION WILL VISE
TO 31.8 MILLION BY 2020.
THAT’S A 38% INCREASE FROM THE
2010 NUMBER.
2010 NUMBER. WHAT WE NEED IS YOUNG, VIBRANT
WORKERS WHO PAY INTO THE SYSTEM.
WE DON’T HAVE YOUNGER WORKERS
PAYING INTO THINGS LIKE SOCIAL
SECURITY AND OTHER THINGS, THAT
REALLY CREATES A PROBLEM.
>> YEAH, AND I THINK ANOTHER
PIECE OF THAT IS THAT AS WE
BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE, AND IT’S
TRUE THAT PRODUCTIVITY HAS
SLOWED DOWN, BUT IT’S STILL
POSITIVE, WE MAY HAVE FEWER
WORKERS PER RETIREE, BUT THOSE
WORKERS WILL BE MORE PRODUCTIVE.
ONE WAY TO ENSURE THAT WE HAVE
MORE PRODUCTIVE WORKERS IS TO BE
MORE WELCOMING OF IMMIGRANTS
BECAUSE, AND THIS IS AGAIN
WIDELY MISUNDERSTOOD.
WIDELY MISUNDERSTOOD. THE FLOW OF IMMIGRANTS INTO THIS
COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS,
HAS FAVORED MORE SKILLED
IMMIGRANTS, NOT LEAST SKILLED.
THE FLOWS FROM THE LESS SKILLED
OR LESS EDUCATED SOUTH, SAY
MEXICO, HAVE REALLY FLATTENED.
AND SO IF YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT
THE EDUCATION COMPONENT OF
INFLOWING IMMIGRANTS, THEY TEND
TO BE MORE HIGHLY EDUCATED AND
PRODUCTIVE.
PRODUCTIVE. >> STEVEN MILLER CITES A STUDY
FROM HARVARD, WHICH HAS LARGELY
BEEN DEBUNKED, THAT WOULD
INDICATE LOW-SKILL WORKERS AND
REFUGEES, IN THIS ECONOMY WE’RE
IN, WE ARE ACTUALLY ABLE TO
ABSORB A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE.
WE NEED LOW-SKILLED IMMIGRANTS
AS WELL AS HIGH-SKILLED
IMMIGRANTS.
IMMIGRANTS. >> OKAY.
>> OKAY. SO WE HAPPEN TO HAVE A VERY
TIGHT LABOR MARKET RIGHT NOW.
I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING YOU JUST
SAID.
SAID. BUT YOU ALSO HAVE TO HAVE AN
IMMIGRATION POLICY THAT CAN BE
GOOD FOR AMERICA WHEN THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS HIGHER.
SO YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT IMMIGRANT
COMPETITION WITH NATIVE BORN
WORKERS IF YOU WANT TO GET INTO
THAT PART OF THE ARGUMENT,
THROUGH ALL KINDS OF LABOR
MARKETS.
MARKETS. WHAT WE FIND IS THAT MORE OFTEN
THAN NOT, IMMIGRANTS COMPLEMENT,
NOT SUBSTITUTE, FOR NATIVE BORN
WORKERS.
WORKERS. THAT IS THEY HELP PROMOTE
OCCUPATIONAL UPGRADING FOR
WORKERS WHO WERE BORN HERE.