Once upon a time, next to a ramshackle military airport full of old Soviet helicopters and
fighters, there was a small town called San Antonio de los Baños. A city of colonial
origin known as the "capital of humor".
Well, at least this is the place where the International Biennial of Graphic Humor is
held.
However, since July 2021 it could well start to be better known as the Cuban epicenter
of bad mood and social discontent. There are no lack of reasons.
(Cuba is facing its worst shortage of food since the 1990s – The Economist)
(Cuba recognizes serious shortage of medicines – Cibercuba)
There, in San Antonio de los Baños, is where it all began.
It is the place where people became fed up and it’s the first place where people lost
their fear and the first mass protests against the Cuban regime appeared, at least the first
since 1994.
These protests, as you can see, originated outside Havana and quickly spread throughout
the country.
And particularly in the provinces of Mayabeque and Matanzas, where, for example, the tourist
hub of Varadero is located. There were also numerous protest rallies in the capital, in
Havana itself. On this occasion the protests have been somewhat
strange, not only because seeing protests in a communist dictatorship like Cuba's is
a rare occurrence, but also because it is the first time that a large-scale wave of
protests [at least in Cuban terms] has started outside the capital.
Unlike what happens in other Latin American countries, the communist regime that has ruled
Cuba for more than 60 long years has managed to establish a strong institutional framework
that reaches every corner of the country. This gives the dictatorship a position of
broad dominion and control over the population as a whole.
In fact, the Cuban regime is one of the few communist regimes that, despite all the difficulties,
managed to survive the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
What’s more, the regime even survived the great economic crisis that hit the country
between 1990 and 1994, a crisis that caused an upsurge in rationing and severe material
shortages that continue to this day.
It was a period in which Cuba lost, in just three years, 36% of its GDP. A blow from which
the country would take more than 17 years to recover.
And you see, the Soviet Union was much more than a political ally for Cuba, it was the
real economic driver of the island for decades.
For example, the USSR sold oil to Cuba at preferential prices, oil that the Cubans then
re-exported in part to obtain dollars;
Cuba received soft loans from Moscow, that is, very long-term loans with very low interest
rates and easy repayment;
Cubans were also compensated for the presence of Red Army troops on the island;
and exported the bulk of their production to the Soviet market.
To give you an idea, approximately 70% of all Cuban trade was directed to the Union
of Soviet Socialist Republics.
("Cuba was more dependent on the USSR than it had been on Spain and the United States
in its entire history". Juan Triana, Cuban economist)
Therefore, when the USSR collapsed, the Cuban economy collapsed. Those were very hard years
of crisis during which even the consumption of calories by Cubans was reduced by almost
30%. It was a stage known as "the special period", years of extreme hardship that ended
up fueling a social explosion: the "Maleconazo uprising".
In early August 1994, Cuban authorities detained four boats heading to the United States to
escape the crisis that was ravaging the island. It was the straw that broke the camel's back.
Hundreds and hundreds of people gathered on Havana's Malecon – a broad esplanade, armed
with sticks and stones and clashing against the police while shouting slogans against
the then president-dictator, Fidel Castro.
Nevertheless, and in spite of everything, the communist regime remains in power against
all odds. An expression that in Cuba we could adapt and say against crisis and misery.
How is it possible that in spite of everything, the regime remains closed to the world, to
freedom and to modernity?
Well, as I was saying, this is something they have achieved thanks to the institutionalism
they have spread throughout the country. Totalitarian, but institutional to the core.
In fact, the political-institutional construction of the Cuban regime is largely inherited from
the Soviet experience. It maintains very refined power structures at government and military
levels. That is to say, there are no traitors or significant internal struggles.
In addition, the government has one of the best security and intelligence services in
Latin America.
That is precisely why, despite all the crises the island has suffered, the dream of achieving
freedom and democracy always seems very distant and difficult to achieve for the Cuban people.
Now, at this point I bet what most of you are wondering is... How on earth did we come
to see the images we have seen of mass protests in Cuba? What elements have unleashed such
a social explosion? What is the root cause of these protests?
And perhaps the most important question of all: Will the protests happen again and succeed
once and for all in toppling the regime sooner rather than later?
Well, you all know what happened. So in this video we are going to tell you exactly what
lit the fuse and how we see the scenario that has been playing out in Cuba.
Listen up.
(AN UNSTOPPABLE WAVE OF FREEDOM)
The Cuba of 2021 is not the Cuba of the year 2015, not even the Cuba of 2020. The country
has experienced significant social changes that, until a few years ago, would have been,
quite simply, unthinkable.
Changes that, although they have not been reflected in the government, nor in an improvement
of the economy or political freedoms, have changed Cuba in some ways.
For example, despite all the propaganda of the regime, most of the younger Cuban generations
no longer see the United States as a hostile agent but as a kind of model of what they
might one day become.
In all the changes that have taken place, there is one thing that has marked a real
turning point: the arrival of mobile internet.
In fact, this has been one of the factors that has most mobilized people in the protests
of July 2021. We are talking about a service that did not exist on the Caribbean island
until relatively recently....
(2018: Mobile internet service will start on December 6th – Granma)
Through the state-owned telecommunications company ETECSA, the country's only internet
provider, Cubans can now access the internet anywhere from the palm of their hands. It
is something that has opened the doors to a force that is very difficult to contain.
Although the internet in Cuba is censored, thanks to VPN networks, Cubans have managed
to open a window to the outside world; and among other things, they can now talk directly
and without filters with their family and friends in Spain or Miami.
Clearly this is the best antidote to political propaganda.
Of course, it's not just about talking. The internet has also given them access to massive
amounts of information. Brand new information, without prior censorship by the communist
authorities.
Now they can learn about the outside world, discover different political viewpoints, organize
themselves and even participate in political debates. Quite a revolution on the island
of Cuba.
Now, Cubans are seeing firsthand the consequences of being imprisoned on an island whose government
seems frozen in time, while their emigrant compatriots prosper in the rest of the world.
And, to top it all off, there is the disappointment, the enormous frustration with the new Cuban
government.
You see, when Raul Castro began to hand over the reins to the island's new political leader,
President Miguel Díaz-Canel, there was a great deal of expectation. Would this finally
be the leader who would promote openness and change in Cuba?
In theory, Diaz-Canel was in favor of important reforms: opening Cuba to the world, allowing
private initiative or direct foreign investment. That is to say, the change of course that
so many communist dictatorships have undergone over the years.
And yes, it is true that some changes did take place, starting with internet access.
However, other areas have been very slow, too slow, desperately slow to the point that
they have barely improved the economic situation. And they have certainly not lived up to expectations.
At the end of the day, all this is relatively easy to explain. What Cubans want in 2021,
especially the young, is very simple:
They want to have the latest model cell phones that their cousins living in Madrid already
have, the cars that their uncles drive in Miami, to be able to talk about whatever they
want without fear of reprisals, or simply to be able to travel.
They want to have a future and a normal life. Something the current government does not
seem willing or prepared to give them.
And that is precisely what has been forging a certain general awareness that the life
they have today simply does not work, it is not quite right. They are living in the name
of a revolution that they never supported.
To make matters worse, the generation that has protested the most is a generation that
was born during what is known as the “special period”, the period of severe economic crisis
that, as we have already seen, followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In short, this is a generation that has never experienced anything but crisis, repression,
rationing and poverty.
How can they not be fed up! And what’s more, they have nothing to lose.
The way we see it is that the protests meant one thing: that Cubans are losing their fear.
Now, what exactly was the spark that lit the fuse? Any ideas? Well... listen up.
(THE FINAL STRAW)
To understand the reasons that led to the social keg finally exploding in July 2021,
we have to bring the coronavirus into the equation.
At the time of making this video, Cuba had been suffering a fierce wave of infections
for several months. A wave that has been, literally, imported from abroad with the approval
of the Cuban government itself.
You see, tourism is a very important source of income for the regime and therefore, it
is vital for its own existence.
Take a look, for example, at this name: GAESA; Grupo de Administración Empresarial. It is
an organization, a consortium owned by the Cuban armed forces.
It is a kind of holding company, controlling all kinds of assets: retail distribution stores,
ports and, above all, hotels. ("I have always thought of Cuba's economy
and government as an onion or as one of those Russian dolls that contain other smaller ones
inside. I have never seen the last matryoshka, I have seen three or four, and I think the
same thing happens with an institution like Gaesa". Pedro Freyre, attorney for the US-Cuba
Business Council of the US Chamber of Commerce)
In this line, GAESA controls the Gaviota Tourism Group, a conglomerate that in turn owns the
most important hotels on the island. We are talking about more than 83 hotel facilities
with a total of 29,000 rooms and a turnover in normal conditions of more than $700 million
dollars. Well, if in 2019 tourist arrivals to Cuba
already fell considerably, by 6%, in 2020 the results were catastrophic.
As a result of the pandemic, the number of international tourists arriving on the island
dropped to practically zero, and the Cuban government lost nearly US$3 billion in revenue.
And although in 2021 things have improved a bit compared to the previous year, the Cuban
tourism sector is still lagging far behind the figures of previous years. So of course,
in such a situation, any income counted.
Precisely for that reason, the Díaz-Canel government decided to look the other way regarding
the pandemic and to encourage the arrival of international tourists with almost no restrictions.
These tourists came mainly from the country that has experienced the greatest growth in
tourism to Cuba in recent years: Mother Russia.
The problem? The Russians were suffering from a violent wave of the coronavirus caused by
the delta variant, and the vast majority were still unvaccinated.
And that's what explains news stories like this:
(More than 150 Russian tourists are in quarantine in Cuba after testing positive for Covid-19
– DCC)
And take note that it was not an isolated case. The arrival of tourists, mainly Russians,
began to cause outbreaks in hotels that later, through the workers, ended up spreading throughout
the country. Although the province of Matanzas was particularly affected, where Varadero,
Cuba's epicenter of sun and beach tourism, is located.
The spread of infections collapsed Cuba's ailing health system and caused even more
severe shortages of medicines and basic commodities than usual.
Now, I'm sure you're wondering... But why on earth did they open the doors to tourism
from countries in the midst of the pandemic due to the new variants?
Well, quite simply because the regime needed money. Urgently needed money.
It is the 2020 tourism crisis in Cuba that goes a long way to explaining why Cubans now
have to wait in long lines to try to buy food at the supermarket.
You see, the thing is that food in Cuba is mainly imported because the country barely
produces 20% of the local demand.
We are talking about a bill of about $1.8 billion dollars in food imports every year.
Purchases are made on the international market and have to be paid in dollars or euros.
And what is the main source of dollars and euros for Cuba? Exactly, tourism.
And since there was hardly any tourism in 2020, that means that getting hold of the
dollars which the regime needs to import food becomes very complicated.
Particularly when you are a country like Cuba that nobody trusts and nobody wants to lend
to.
And that is where the severe shortages that have punished and continue to punish Cubans
come into play.
It is the fish that bites its own tail.
A tightly constrained and highly unproductive economy;
a system of state-owned companies that is completely dysfunctional and not subject to
market criteria; extreme control of everything that enters
the island... In short, the perfect recipe for disaster.
Perhaps the biggest miscalculation made by the Díaz-Canel government is that they never
thought that the situation would get out of control to the point of unleashing the largest
protests in the history of Cuba, protests even larger than those of the Maleconazo uprising
of 1994.
To give you an idea, 40 demonstrations were registered in a single day. This is obviously
not normal in a country governed with an iron fist like this one is.
In fact, on the busiest days of the protests, which came to fill streets and squares in
Havana, Cuban dictator Díaz-Canel was quite nervous in his communiqués. He even urged
civil confrontation between supporters and opponents of the government.
("They have to step over our corpses if they want to confront the revolution. And we are
ready for anything, and we will be in the streets fighting. And that is why we are also
here calling on all the revolutionaries of the country, all the communists to take to
the streets. We defend the revolution among all revolutionaries. And in the first row,
the communists."
Díaz-Canel's appeals made one thing clear: the Cuban regime may not yet be on the verge
of collapse, but it is not as solid as it was thought to be.
After cutting off the internet and even electricity to make assembly more difficult and deploying
security forces, the protests gradually died down.
Police and military forces have taken over Havana and the country's main cities. The
"black berets", the elite Cuban repression corps, and civilian men armed with PVC pipes
and wooden sticks walk in groups through the cities to intimidate the population.
By the way, the black berets, officially called the Special National Brigade, are a political-police
corps whose basic function is to act as a shock squad for the Cuban dictatorship in
the face of any sign of dissidence. They were created just over 40 years ago and dress in
black to be intimidating.
They are something akin to the praetorian guard of the communist regime.
(We train to defend the Revolution and to defend our conquests" - Adalberto Soriano
Vidal, Major of the Special National Brigade)
But, let's not get sidetracked.
Okay, maybe the end of the satrapy in Cuba has not yet come, but how much longer will
the Cuban dictatorship last?
For the time being, it has already had to give in on something that seemed insurmountable
until just a month ago: restrictions on private imports.
(Cuba lifts food, medicine customs restrictions after protest – Euronews)
Which, by the way, is curious. The US embargo that punishes the island is often mentioned,
but never the embargo established by the Cuban government itself, that is, the restrictions
on trading with the outside world.
In any case, if one thing is clear, it is that the unprecedented social explosion that
took place in July 2021 has been a desperate cry that, although it has not succeeded in
overthrowing the dictatorship, it has served to make the desire for democracy in Cuba heard
around the world.
And it is at precisely this point that we come to the future political agenda.
Let's be clear, if the Communist Party of Cuba wants to continue ruling the island,
it will have no choice but to carry out real economic reforms, market-oriented reforms,
as Deng Xiaoping did in China.
On the other hand, if they continue to refuse to change the model, the tide may soon sweep
them away. Or the international community may even say enough is enough to what has
been an unsustainable situation for decades: a repressive and outdated communist dictatorship
a few miles from Miami.
But at this point it’s your turn: Will Díaz Canel and his cronies be willing to modernize
Cuba in order to keep their seats? Will these protests result in a Cuba with more social
and economic freedoms, or will the government opt for the path of more and more repression?
And what position should the international community adopt?
You can leave us your opinion here below, in the comments. And by the way, if you liked
this video, don't forget to "like" it and subscribe to the channel by clicking on the
little bell so you don't miss any updates.
Once again, thank you for watching.
All the best, and see you next time.