In Russia and of course, its
unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine
is now ramping up its counteroffensive
after months of admittedly slow progress
One U.S.
official says that Ukraine
is now committing
the main
bulk of its forces
to that counteroffensive.
And in a surprising twist in the politics
of Russia, Yevgeny
Prigozhin
has reportedly been seen inside Russia,
seen for the first time since his Wagner
military fighters
launched a failed mutiny
against Putin last month.
As it happens,
Prigozhin is said to have appeared
in the same Russian city as Putin.
Of course,
the target of that armed
rebellion CNN's Nic Robertson,
he is in London now.
Nic, first
on the ongoing machinations
inside the power structure of Russia.
Here is Prigozhin,
a few weeks ago
launches a mutiny targeting Putin,
turns up inside Russia.
And of course, what was Putin
territory is still Putin territory
where he was a KGB agent.
Prior to the fall,
the Soviet Union held
a lot of power there in the nineties.
What's the significance?
Yeah, I think there
were a couple of things in play here.
Look, Prigozhin, longtime
ally of Putin
running the Wagner mercenary
group, doing
Prigozhin doing
Putin's bidding in Africa,
providing security
through the mercenaries
to some client states there, like Mali,
like Mozambique and others,
but getting minerals like gold
and diamonds as part of that deal.
And this has been something
that he's done
promotions, done in cahoots
with Putin in the Kremlin,
so it seems that
Prigozhin still has some currency
with Putin
because he controls some of the levers
to these interests in Africa.
Now, how long he controls them?
We don't know.
We don't know what kind of deal
he got current
or strictures were put on him
entirely by Putin.
So it does seem bizarre.
I mean, this major push against Putin,
amusingly, Putin called it
a betrayal, said severe consequences.
Yet it just doesn't look like it
on the face of it right now.
It doesn't know No question.
I mean, listen, from Putin,
who has tried to kill people
who've just said
critical things about him
to this counter offensive.
Now, what do we know as to as to
how much more force
Ukrainians are playing and where exactly
they've committed more.
They say
they say they still have reserve forces
that they can put into the fight.
They say they've been going slowly
because the area
they're trying to get through
is very heavily mined.
That they've lacked munitions
in some cases.
But as of a couple of days ago,
we heard that they were putting up
not just from the Ukrainian side,
but from the Russian side as well,
saying that the Ukrainians were using
huge, intense
artillery barrages,
which is typical for a big push.
You send ground troops in after that
and that seems to be
what's happening
that the Ukrainians
have taken
some territory from Russians,
the Russian commanders on the ground
that actually admit
the loss of some frontline villages.
How significant
that's going to be over the coming days?
We don't know.
But it's interesting
because here on the ground,
the Russians
and the military bloggers on their side
are saying
we're making losses
and having a tough time yet
in Saint Petersburg, Putin is saying
not so much.
We're crushing them,
destroying their tanks.
Well,
a better
reflection of reality has tended
to be those folks on the front lines.
Nic Robertson in London, thanks so much.
Let's continue this conversation.
A bit
more analysis with retired Army
Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt.
General,
there has been
some kind of criticism is the right word,
but but certainly awareness
that the counter offensive
has not proceed as fast
as some had hoped.
Now you have a sense that Ukraine
is committing more of its forces
into this house.
How significant is that move?
Because there had been some sense
that until now Ukraine had held many
of its forces back
Well, I think you've
got to
talk about the Ukrainian plan at first.
They've got a 600 mile border fence line
that they've got to try to break through.
So for the last couple of weeks,
I think the Ukrainians
have been probing
for the soft spots
along that 600 meter line.
It would appear
that they may have found a soft spot
down in this operation region.
And if they are able to do that,
if they're able to break through
that very, very expensive obstacle belt,
that's where the commander
is going to consider
deploying those eight brigades
in reserve.
However, the Russian
commander knows that as well.
So you can expect that he's
going to be concentrating a lot of forces
there as well.
So it would appear that
the Ukrainians have found a soft spot.
It may be that they can break through
and commit
those eight brigades of Western trained,
Western equipped troops
to finally conduct that breakthrough
that we've been talking about
for so long.
If it is true, this would be key
because part of the plan from
the beginning
had been to push down towards
a little pole there to
to break that land bridge between Crimea
and eastern eastern Ukraine.
You and I have talked about this
other experienced commanders.
They always make the point.
The rule of thumb is
you need a three to one ratio,
three times as many forces
if you're the attacking force to attack
defended positions,
particularly positions
like this, that
they've had months to dig in and mine
set booby traps, etc..
Can you even with good planning
and well-trained units, breakthrough
with a lower ratio than that?
Well, we'll see
if, in fact, this is what's happening.
If, in fact,
the Ukrainians are concentrated forces
in a particular area
to give them a three or four
or five to one advantage
in that narrow area,
they may be able to break through.
Things are much easier
once you have got through that obstacle
once you've got through those barriers
in those tank traps,
then it's just open
maneuver on both sides.
So there at that point that three to one
calculus goes down much,
much more to one to one.
Understood.
Well, listen,
much to watch
and we're going to continue
to bring developments as we see them.
General Mark
Kimmitt, great to have you on.
Thanks so much.