Right now, Russian tanks are rolling through freshly fallen snow toward NATO-controlled
territory.
Huge atomic-powered vessels crush the ice frozen atop the North Sea to create lanes
for goods and battleships to travel through.
The most important battleground in the world may be in the Arctic, and new satellite images
suggest that Russia is doing everything possible to secure its position in the region.
Let’s visit a hypothetical yet, very plausible scenario that could unfold in the Arctic due
to aggressive Russian expansion.
In the cold winter months, the sun never rises in the ice-covered landscape of the Arctic.
The sea is frozen, and at the top of the world, a newly constructed Russian radar base scans
the skies.
The soldiers stationed at this remote facility are only a fraction of what they once were.
Many men in the Arctic battalions have been called south to aid in the war effort against
Ukraine.
A Russian soldier sits at his computer station, sipping a cup of hot coffee.
His body still hasn’t adjusted to the endless night that the Arctic experiences.
Even during the day, the stars are up, and from time to time, the Aurora Borealis sends
green and purple ripples of charged particles across the sky.
The Russian soldier leans back in his chair to check if his C.O. is nearby.
When he sees the coast is clear, he opens the bottom drawer of his desk and pulls out
a bottle of cheap Russian vodka that was smuggled in during the last supply run.
He pours a generous shot into his coffee and takes a big sip.
The vodka trickles down his throat, he feels a warming sensation run through his body.
At that very moment, warning lights begin flashing at his workstation.
The Russian nearly spits out his vodka and coffee as he stares at the screen.
The newly installed Rezonans-N radar system has picked something up.
The soldier turns several nobs and pounds on the keyboard to confirm what he is seeing.
The advanced radar system has picked up a stealth bomber flying over the Arctic base.
The soldier can’t be sure what the aircraft is doing, but there is no doubt it belongs
to the United States.
The Russian picks up the phone next to him, providing him with a direct line to the commander
of the facility.
“You better come see this, sir,” the soldier says.
Moments later, his commander comes flying into the room.
He looks at the data coming in via the radar station at the top of the world.
“Get me the Kremlin!”
the commander shouts.
After a brief discussion with Vladamir Putin and his generals, the order is given to mobilize
Russian forces in the Arctic.
For decades, the Russian military has been planning for such an event.
Over the past few years, they deployed new missiles and aircraft to the Arctic.
The Northern Fleet underwent several upgrades to allow for better striking capabilities.
And new infrastructure, such as roads and railways, has made transporting supplies through
the region slightly easier.
Now the Russian forces in the Arctic have taken the U.S. stealth bomber entering their
airspace as an act of war.
Their forces travel west towards the NATO soldiers stationed in Norway.
And even though Finland has not technically become part of NATO, Russia has its sights
set on their Arctic regions as well.
Russian soldiers dressed in white combat gear and skis follow tanks across the snowy landscape.
A platoon of snowmobiles races across the frozen tundra to provide reconnaissance for
the heavy forces bringing up the rear.
Just north of the Norwegian Archipelago of Svalbard, the ice atop the Arctic Sea begins
to rumble.
There is a groaning sound before a loud crack like glass shattering against a concrete floor.
A moment later, three Russian nuclear submarines smash through the ice and prepare their ballistic
missiles for launch.
The Arctic Russian forces have been given orders that if they encounter any resistance
from NATO, they are to unleash the full might of their arsenals at the enemy.
NATO has already deployed troops to make a stand in Svalbard.
They don’t know the reason for the Russian mobilization, but it seems that Putin is about
to launch a full-scale war in the Arctic.
NATO forces spot the lights of Russian armored vehicles approaching.
The wind whips up snow causing low visibility.
Each side has trained for this day, but if either fires a shot, it could escalate things
to World War III status.
Russian forces stop at the edge of their territory.
The soldiers are at a standoff.
Russia sends a message to NATO command telling them to call back their stealth bomber and
to remain out of Russian airspace.
They receive no reply.
The U.S. didn’t believe that the new radar systems set up in the Arctic could detect
their stealth aircraft, but they were wrong.
Rather than admitting that it was a mistake, encrypted orders are sent to the B-2 bomber
that was en route to conduct a mission on the other side of the world.
The Russian surveillance team tracks the aircraft as it turns around and exits Russian airspace.
The Kremlin gives the order for its Arctic troops to stand down but remain alert.
As NATO and Russian Arctic forces stare one another down, a covert Russian operation is
being carried out to disrupt oil and natural gas supplies from reaching Europe.
Deep in the Baltic Waters, Russian operatives are placing explosive charges on the recently
repaired Baltic Sea Pipeline.
Russia hopes that by stopping the natural gas flow from Norway to the rest of Europe;
the E.U.
will have no choice but to buy more Russian fossil fuels.
However, NATO vessels have been diligently patrolling the waters around the pipeline.
When word reached them that things in the Arctic were escalating, they doubled their
efforts to make sure there was no foul play.
NATO ships come across a Russian sub next to the pipeline.
It is clear that they have ill intentions.
Warning depth charges are dropped to signal the sub to surface for talks.
The Russians believe they are under attack and inform the Kremlin that NATO has declared
war.
Vladamir Putin gives the order to fire all weapons.
The nuclear subs in the North Sea launch their ballistic missiles over the top of the world
toward the United States.
Russian and NATO soldiers open fire at one another near Svalbard.
Long-range missiles race across Russian borders, hitting key targets in Europe.
All hell breaks loose.
And it all started with Russia’s aggressive expansion in the Arctic and miscommunication
within its ranks.
It’s a scary time we’re living in, and even though things have not yet escalated
to the point of war in the Arctic, it doesn’t mean they won’t in the future.
Even as Russia pours men and resources into the war in Ukraine, they are also spending
vast amounts of money and sending supplies to the far north.
Satellite images recently acquired show that over the past year, military bases, airfields,
and mining infrastructure has been built up across the Arctic.
This new data on Russian expansion in the north has led NATO to double its presence
in the region.
But why is everyone scrambling to secure the frozen wasteland that sits atop our planet?
What is so important that Russia is using precious resources that they desperately need
to fight in Ukraine to expand in the Arctic?
The answer to these questions all have to do with money, power, and influence.
First of all, let’s discuss what is being built by Russia and where they are focusing
their efforts.
The new series of satellite images show that Russia has been focused on building radar
bases at their Olenegorsk site on the Kola Peninsula.
They have also installed five Rezonans-N radar systems at Ostrovnoy, a base located by the
Barents Sea near Norway and Finland.
Russia claims that these radar systems are capable of detecting any stealth aircraft
that NATO may fly over the region.
At their northernmost facility, the Russians have expanded the runway at Nagurskoye airfield,
which suggests that they are using it to bring in larger aircraft and more supplies.
What all this newly constructed infrastructure in the Arctic means is that Putin sees this
region as playing a vital role in the future of Russia.
But you’re probably thinking, why now?
What has driven Putin and his allies to increase their presence in the Arctic when they are
losing the war in Ukraine?
It may come as a surprise, but Russia has always viewed the frozen lands and waters
of the arctic as absolutely vital to the nation's security and economy.
There may be no more important part of the Russian Federation than its territory in the
Arctic.
And while the warming of the planet due to climate change may be the biggest threat to
life as we know it, this global catastrophe is a godsend for Russia.
As the planet warms, the ice in the Arctic is melting.
This has opened up new opportunities in the region, which Russia plans to take full advantage
of.
As the ice becomes thinner in the winters and melts faster in the spring due to warmer
temperatures, it’s creating more shipping lanes across the Arctic region.
This will allow Russia to move their exports into Asian and European markets much more
quickly, skipping the Suez Canal as they move their goods through the new northern shipping
lanes.
In fact, it’s estimated that the Northern Sea Route that is becoming easier to clear
of ice could cut two weeks off of the amount of time it takes to move goods from Asia to
Europe and vice versa.
The problem is that Russia is positioning itself to be able to monopolize the North
Sea Route to ensure that any ships passing through have to rely on Russian ports and
infrastructure.
Perhaps Putin put it best when he said the North Sea Route “will allow Russia to fully
reveal its export potential and to establish effective logistics routes, including to Southeast
Asia.”
Basically, Putin is stating that the future of Russia’s economy hinges on its ability
to control the region of the Arctic that the North Sea Route travels through.
So, there is a clear economic reason that Russia wants to expand further and further
into the arctic in recent years.
But it’s not just about shipping lanes.
The Arctic also holds vast amounts of resources that Russia utilizes.
A staggering 20% of Russia’s GDP comes from the Arctic, which is incredible when you think
of how sparsely populated and barren the region is.
The most valuable resources for Russia in this part of the world are fossil fuels, in
particular, oil and natural gas.
There are much more accessible places to drill for oil and natural gas than in the Arctic,
but Putin knows if he can get enough investors to utilize the region, it will generate a
huge amount of wealth and resources for Russia.
This is why the Kremlin gave 41 billion dollars in tax incentives for companies to develop
the Vostok oil field in 2019.
The goal is for Russia to produce around 2 million more barrels of oil per day than it
already does.
The following year, the Russian government approved a 300 billion dollar infrastructure
bill that would allow for more drilling of oil and liquefied natural gas in the Arctic,
along with money earmarked for the construction of infrastructure to store and transport the
fossil fuels in the region.
All of this goes to show just how important the Arctic is to the economy of Russia.
Without controlling the huge amount of resources in the area, Russia would literally be unable
to fuel its military or industries.
These resources alone are enough to explain why Russia wants to expand its influence at
the top of the world so badly.
However, other than fossil fuels, there is another vital resource that the region is
swimming with.
Around one-third of all fish harvested by Russia come from the Arctic waters in the
north.
In fact, this industry is only growing as warming waters are forcing schools of fish
further north to seek cooler waters.
And since fish are a key food source for the people of Russia and many other parts of the
world, the Kremlin wants to ensure they can control the waters that the fish are migrating
to.
All of these economic ventures require Russia to connect the Arctic to the rest of the world
through shipping lanes into the Atlantic and Pacific.
This is why they are pouring tons of money into more advanced icebreakers to keep the
North Sea Route free of ice.
Even as the war rages on in Ukraine, Russia can’t stop its expansion into the Arctic;
otherwise, it could lead to a lack of vital resources in the future and economic collapse.
This is why new roads, railroads, and transportation facilities are popping up throughout the region.
The question then becomes, with tightening sanctions, citizens being conscripted into
the military, and a mass exodus of skilled labor, how does Russia plan on building and
maintaining its infrastructure in the Arctic?
The answer is: it can’t, at least not to the capacity it needs to.
This is why the Kremlin is desperately looking for investors from China and India to utilize
the region and further Russia’s plans to exploit the resources of the Arctic.
As of right now, foreign investors are hesitant to dump massive sums of money into a country
that is losing a war or into a region that is just not as accessible as many other resource-rich
areas of the world.
As important as the Arctic is to Russia’s economy, it’s not nearly as important to
other countries.
But Russia’s expansion isn’t just about money.
It’s about power as well.
Ever since the Cold War, Russia has seen the Arctic as a key strategic location.
There are several reasons for this, but the main one is that the shortest distance from
Russia to North America is over the Arctic.
This became incredibly important during the Cold War when nuclear ballistic missiles were
developed to obliterate an enemy.
And now, Vladamir Putin wants to ensure that if Russia ever did need to strike at the heart
of the U.S., it would have the capability to do so.
However, it’s not just about launching missiles.
Like with almost all military decisions made by Russia, a lot of their expansion in the
Arctic has to do with keeping NATO forces away from their borders.
There are those in the Kremlin that believe if the North Sea Route is opened up to all
nations—including those that belong to NATO—it will threaten the very existence of the Russian
Federation.
Therefore, Russian leaders have gone back to their tried and true method of militarizing
the region to make sure that no one but Russia can control it.
To do this, Russia is not just expanding on land but in the sea as well.
The Kremlin announced in 2017 that it would be upgrading the capabilities of its Northern
Fleet, which guards Russian interests in the waters of the Arctic.
This has led to the construction of even more icebreakers to ensure that the Northern Fleet
can move freely throughout the region.
However, Russia is still far behind NATO in terms of naval capabilities, and it knows
it.
This is why a lot of the modernization of the Northern Fleet focuses on defensive upgrades
instead of offensive ones.
This has been a common tactic for the Russian military as it never seems to have the resources
or money necessary to construct effective offensive weapons and vehicles, which has
been made painfully clear by what is happening in Ukraine.
One of the most significant reasons for the recent expansion of Russian military bases
in the Arctic likely has to do with two of the most northern European nations.
On May 18, 2022, Finland and Sweden submitted their applications to join NATO.
This was incredibly alarming for Russia as it would mean that two neutral countries that
both have a claim to the Arctic were now planning to join the enemy.
If these two nations officially join the organization, NATO forces will literally be on Russia’s
doorstep.
In fact, once Finland and Sweden are accepted into NATO, seven out of the eight Arctic nations
will be NATO members.
Putin knows this, and it’s one of the reasons Russia has been in a rush to build up its
defenses in the Arctic.
And even though Russia will never admit it, another reason they are expanding further
into the Arctic could have to do with sabotage.
It’s estimated that somewhere around 30% of Europe's natural gas comes from Norway,
most of which is obtained from the county’s southern coast.
However, some gas is secured from the Arctic.
There are huge amounts of resources being sent from Norway to Europe, and if something
were to happen to these pipelines, there could be drastic consequences.
For example, in September of 2022, the Baltic Sea Pipeline suffered a massive leak.
This led to a gas shortage, and prices skyrocketed in Europe.
Further investigations done by Swedish security agencies suggested that the leak was most
likely due to sabotage.
As of right now, there is no definitive proof that Russia or anyone associated with the
Kremlin had any involvement in the sabotage of the pipeline.
However, many military and security officers are keeping a close eye on the investigation
and any involvement by Russia.
Expanding its presence in the Arctic could allow the Russian military to launch covert
missions to disrupt natural gas and oil supplies running into Europe.
This is why NATO ships have doubled their presence in the Baltic and North Seas to try
and act as a deterrent for any bad actors who may have plans to tamper with the critical
infrastructure in the region.
Russia has been expanding its presence in the Arctic just so that NATO countries can’t.
And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Russian operatives are carrying out acts
of sabotage just to weaken NATO's ability to acquire resources or expand its influence.
But the military build-up over the last couple of years also has another strategic importance
for Russia.
And that strategy lurks just below the frigid Arctic waters.
The current regime controlling the Russian Federation may believe that a war with NATO
is inevitable.
Therefore, the expansion in the Arctic is also being done to further the second-strike
capabilities of their ballistic missile submarines, which sit near the Kola Peninsula.
It’s in this region that at least seven of Russia’s ballistic missile subs reside.
The increased military presence in the Arctic has allowed for better re-supply and maintenance
opportunities for Russian subs, ensuring their second-strike capabilities remain strong.
Russian submarines in the Arctic and the Northern Fleet are the only groups of vessels that
have the ability to reach the North Atlantic and European Arctic waters if a conflict ever
did break out.
The ships in this region have a direct line of attack to both the Barents and Norwegian
Seas if Russia ever needs to advance its forces into the area (Location of both seas on the
map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barents_Sea#/media/File:Barents_Sea_map.png).
According to military analysts who have been keeping a close eye on Russia’s Arctic expansion,
if a conflict ever did break out, The Northern Fleet and subs in the region would play a
crucial role in attacking NATO’s eastern flank.
Russia's military developments in the region also have a less threatening purpose as well.
Much of the new infrastructure and ships in the north are solely there to aid in the economic
interests of Russia.
The environmental conditions in the Arctic are incredibly harsh, which means things will
go wrong.
The increased military development in the area may be to protect civilian projects to
drill for oil, procure natural gas, or mine important minerals, which are normally aided
by the army if things go wrong.
Therefore, some of Russia’s presence in the Arctic may have nothing to do with war.
Or perhaps the Russian expansion is just a revamped form of Cold War posturing.
Maybe Putin never planned on using the newly constructed yet desperately understaffed bases
in the Arctic.
Instead, it’s all just a smokescreen to distract from Russia’s failure in Ukraine
and to trick the rest of the world into thinking Russia still has the capability of expanding
wherever it wants to.
There is little doubt that Russia needs the resources in the Arctic to fuel its economy
and warm Russian homes.
The North Sea Route would definitely help speed up the transportation of goods from
East Asia to Europe, which could benefit Russia greatly if they controlled the waterway.
What it comes down to is that the military capabilities of Russia in the Arctic are not
as strong as Putin would like the world to think.
The Northern Fleet and ballistic submarines in the region could certainly deal out a massive
amount of destruction if they unleashed their arsenals, but if war ever did break out, there
is very little chance that Russian forces stationed in the Arctic would be able to hold
back NATO.
Now watch “What Would Happen If Russia and the US Went to War?”
Or check out “Why Did The Nazis Have A Secret Base in the Arctic?”