The Azadi Stadium in Tehran rarely sees European teams. Years of sanctions and isolation since the
1979 Islamic revolution have meant that the Iranian national team, despite being
one of the best in Asia, struggles to find European national sides to play Team Melli.
On Thursday 23rd March, that changed. Iran played Russia,
a diplomatic 1-1 draw in front of a full house, but for once Iran's isolation wasn't
the biggest issue. It was Russia's.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, firstly in 2014, but in far greater and deadlier
numbers on February 24th 2022 the country has been isolated politically, economically and
culturally. The Russian national team had been due to play Poland in a 2022 World Cup play off.
The invasion of neighbouring Ukraine made that game impossible. Poland said they would
refuse to play, as did Russia's potential opponents in the final play-off round,
Sweden and the Czech Republic, forcing football's governing bodies to act.
Russia was suspended from UEFA and FIFA. The men's team were out of the World Cup. The women's team
was out of the European Championship. And Russia's club teams could no longer play in the Champions
League, Europa League or Conference League. The Champions League final, due to be played
at the Gazprom Arena in St Petersburg, was moved to the Stade de France in Paris. UEFA's lucrative
sponsorship deal with Gazprom was cancelled too. One year on, nothing has changed. As a country
under sanctions, Russian club teams have limited options in the transfer
market. FIFA imposed rules that allow foreign footballers to leave unilaterally and suspend
their contracts until the summer of 2023 Russian clubs remain banned from competing
in lucrative European competitions. Last year Russia was removed from the draw for 2024 European
Championship qualification. There was, however, one prize Russian football valued above all else.
“It is important for us to take part in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers,” said Alexander Dyukov,
president of the Russian Football Union. With Russia's invasion of Ukraine continuing,
and unlikely to end any time soon, a novel solution was mooted at the end of 2022 by
Dyukov. Could Russia leave UEFA and try to qualify for the 2026 World Cup finals by joining
the Asian Football Confederation instead? “Politics is in first place [in Europe],
football has faded into the background,” he said. “If we don’t do this now, and later decide on the
transition, then the next tournament for the national teams will be a cycle from 2027.”
The idea isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. For one Russia is vast. 77 percent of the country,
everything east of the Ural mountains, is in Asia, even if its political, cultural and
demographic heartland is in Europe, in its east. And there is some precedent. Russia wouldn't be
the first country to swap confederations. In 2006 Australia, which had grown tired of
smashing pacific opposition as part of the Oceania Football Confederation, successfully petitioned
to join the Asian Football Confederation. When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991,
so too did the Soviet national team. Its newly formed constituent republics straddling Asia
and Europe had a choice to make. The national teams of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan
chose to be part of European football. But Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
joined the Asian Football Confederation. The most analogous though is Israel. Israel
was a founding member of the Asian Football Confederation but there were problems from the
start. Arab and Muslim countries frequently refused to play them leading to a farcical
situation where they almost qualified for the 1958 World Cup without playing a single game
after Indonesia and then Sudan refused to play. FIFA intervened and arranged a draw
of all the European teams that finished second in their qualification group.
Eventually a play-off was arranged with Wales, which Wales won 4-0 on aggregate. Still,
Israel did make it to the 1970s finals as Asia's representative before being kicked
out altogether in 1974 after a proposal by Kuwait to expel the Israel federation.
They spent the next two decades in the wilderness, occasionally playing qualifying matches in
UEFA and the OFC. Eventually they joined European World Cup qualification in 1991, for USA 1994.
They were admitted as permanent members of UEFA in 1994, where they have remained ever since.
And this might be why Russia joining the AFC might have some legs. Russia is a pariah for
most of the world, especially in the west. Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has cost
hundreds of thousands of lives and seen his country ostracised from the global economy.
Putin has also now been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court,
meaning countries party to the ICC are compelled to arrest him if he ever enters their territory.
This won't happen, though, in most of Asia. Apart from a handful of states,
virtually every country in Asia is not a signatory to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal
Court and does not recognise its jurisdiction. And since the start of Russia's most recent
invasion of Ukraine, Asian countries have deepened their economic and political relations
with Russia. China's leader Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Moscow further illuminated Russia's pivot
to the east. China and India have been buying Russian oil and gas. Their combined purchases,
at a heavily discounted rate, overtook all Russian exports to the EU at the end of 2022. The UAE
and Saudi Arabia have maintained close ties. And Iran, Russia's latest friendly opponent,
has been selling Russia arms, including the Shahid “kamikaze” loitering drone which has caused mayhem
and thousands of civilian casualties in Ukraine. There is certainly a path for Russia to join
the AFC if they voted for it. Powerful members have already backed the move.
“If FIFA and the AFC allow it and there's a benefit for Asia then I don't think there's
a problem with that,” the Saudi sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki al Faisal told AFP at
the Asian Football Confederation's annual congress in February 2023.
FIFA would ultimately have to agree for Russia to compete in the World Cup if they qualified.
And the Russian Football Union has left the door open for negotiations with UEFA,
calling for a working group to sort out their membership issues. But any move to normalise
Russian sport, including an IOC proposal to allow some Russian and Belarusian athletes
to compete at the 2024 Olympics in Paris, has been fiercely opposed by Ukraine and its allies.
In the meantime, Russia does have a tournament to prepare for. In March 2023 Russia was invited to
compete in the Central Asian Football Association Championship in June. The tournament will take
place in Bishkek and Tashkent and feature Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan. The organisers have said Russia has accepted their invitation.
Russia has said they are considering it. Still, it is all a long way from the summer
of 2018 and the highpoint of Russian football, when the country hosted the
World Cup finals. Putin was there for the first game, Russia versus Saudi Arabia,
watching the host nation beat the Saudis 5-0 next to an exuberant FIFA president Gianni Infantino
and Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. Five years later Russia is a European pariah
and as long as that remains the case their footballing future might lie in Asia.