Over the last four years, we've seen so many headlines: Assad is up; Assad is down; Assad
is losing; Assad is winning.
It is right to ask ourselves this question.
What if Bashar al-Assad were overthrown?
First, let's identify five different groups that potentially have Bashar al-Assad in their
crosshairs.
The first is the religious group that Assad himself comes from, the Alawites.
This is his inner circle.
These are the people who surround him, who protect him, and whom he trusts.
One of them could decide that the difference between peace and conflict in Syria is getting
rid of Bashar al-Assad.
Many people have thought that this was the simplest, quickest way to get rid of the Syrian
dictator.
The second group we would look at that would have Assad in its crosshairs are the so-called
"moderate rebels", the original group that the United States worked with in the aftermath
of all of the demonstrations in Syria - the Free Syrian Army and other like-minded groups.
Those folks have had very serious ups and downs over the last few years.
The third group to look at is Jabhat al-Nusra.
The al-Nusra Front is a part of pledged to al-Qaeda.
It is receiving support from a variety of Gulf countries.
It does hold territory along with some other groups, and it certainly has Bashar al-Assad
in its crosshairs.
They've been on the ground for a long time.
They've got good connections into opposition groups inside Syria.
They may well have good tentacles into the Syrian military, and it is not crazy to think
that they could have a shot at getting rid of Assad themselves.
The challenge for Jabhat al-Nusra is that even if it is able to take more ground, even
if it is able to tear away at the Assad regime, it has a challenge from yet another group
that's been targeting Assad, and that is ISIS.
Probably the most famous group that we talk about when we talk about the conflict in Syria.
The truth is that you don't see ISIS targeting the regime very aggressively, and you don't
see the regime targeting ISIS very aggressively.
Why?
Because they're all interested in getting rid of everybody else and then presenting
to the world the option: "Here, Assad or me," "ISIS or me."
That's what they're looking for, is to create a black and white situation on the ground
in which the world will be forced to choose, and theoretically, the West will choose Assad,
and the Arabs will choose ISIS.
I don't think it's going to happen like that, but certainly that's part of their thinking.
Number five, the threat to Assad that we don't talk about enough, but I think he thinks about
a lot, is loss of support from Russia and Iran.
The day that Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei decide that Assad has become too
much of a liability is the day that it looks like he's losing, and they will then seek
to gain back whatever strength they can by constructing another Alawite regime, an identical
regime to the one that exists in power right now but without Bashar al-Assad at its head.
One of the things we seem not to talk about anymore is Bashar al-Assad taking himself
out, going into exile.
That is less and less likely, because Assad himself is going to become such a burden to
the country that takes him in.
He is for the Syrian people and for so many others a war criminal.
Because of that and for a variety of other reasons, including the fact that he wants
to hold onto power, it seems the least likely that Bashar al-Assad will take himself out.