Guys, historically, we have never, on Bitcoin, seen a red July
that wasn't at least followed by a red August.
We will keep going on here.
You know, I want to start off
- with some SHIB TA just for you, Deezy. - Hey!
- We're looking up-- - Hey. Let's pump my bag of $100 worth of SHIB.
out of curiosity, when did you purchase?
- What day? - I actually just put up Coinbase earlier today.
I'm up like 4%.
I think I got it last week.
- I think I just got it. About a week ago. - Okay.
- Alright. Well, I mean, yeah, any-- - About a week ago.
anyone who purchased here back in June, you definitely have had a nice little rally going on.
- If you purchased a week ago, - Someone, clip that. That was awesome.
- I'm sorry. Go ahead. - Did you do a cool trick?
- I wasn't looking. - That's alright.
- It's over. The moment's passed. - Oh, darn.
I got bad news for you, though, Deezy.
Well, good news,
you probably should look at taking profits at some point soon.
The first thing I'm looking at right now,
we do have a rising wedge on SHIB that traditionally breaks to the downside.
There's a lot of things kind of coming in here saying we're a little overextended.
Let's look.
4-hour chart, what we're looking at here.
I like using Chart Prime. It is my favorite indicator to use.
But everyone loves their own.
So you do use whatever works for you.
Whenever you see this orange box on Chart Prime,
that is an overbought box.
It did just flash here this morning.
We are flowing up in the money flow.
But we're getting a little overextended with our trend fusion.
And, of course, the RSI is coming up high.
There's an outside chance it goes a little higher.
But at the moment, if it does not,
if we start seeing a pause in SHIB,
you will see bearish divergence forming.
And then you go out to the daily chart,
where we're also getting some reversal signals here,
we had a reversal red triangle right here
and pulling up the Dynamic Reactor and trend assistant,
we're coming into some strong rejection
right with that rising level of rejection.
And, again, more often than not, rising wedges break to the downside.
We're hitting resistance on several different things.
So it's something to definitely keep your eye on.
Possibly time to take some profit.
Last thing we can do is even take a look at some Fib ranges
from the last peak we had back in April down to what is currently the bottom.
Right there, you're going to see the resistance coming in at 0.5 on Fibonacci as well.
- So that's-- - Can we go to the left side of that green line?
- You see that green line form right there? - Yeah.
Would you consider that a rising wedge that then led to a little parabolic--
it's on the far left side of the TradingView screen.
You're looking at it right now.
Now, it's over a little.
- In the middle? - You've changed the axis a little.
But would you say that rising wedge led to that parabolic pump?
Or is that just, you know, how the market was going?
Rising wedge led to a parabolic--
- you mean a falling wedge? - Go left.
Go left.
Move it to the left.
Slowly, slowly, slowly .
Right there.
No. So that would actually be a time where it broke out the wrong direction.
So rising wedges usually break to the downside.
I'm sure if I were to go back and look at some news,
- something happened in August that pumped it. - Oh, I'm just asking. Is that a rising wedge?
- Would you say that's-- - That's a rising wedge
- that's a rising wedge that broke down? - that traditionally breaks to the downside.
- Yeah. - Okay.
So the thesis I saw was the rising wedges typically breakout to the upside.
- This was from--- - That's false.
I don't know if this was typically.
He just said, you know.
He laid out some examples where it led to a parabolic run up.
And so I was going based off of that.
- But, as you're saying, - Yeah.
I do remember, yeah, typically, they do break to the downside.
So maybe something to check out with SHIB.
Because you see these rising wedges and then you see a little parabolic candle.
- So it's just an interesting coin - Yeah.
that seems to play by its own rules on some levels.
Yeah, they're just--
if you guys are wondering what he's talking about,
- right here, this-- this is my tool. - Not a rising wedgie, Nate.
This is a rising wedge.
And it's true. Like, it is one.
TA is never 100%.
You're not going to find any technical analysts say
that every single time you draw these formations,
you get the same breakout.
In this case, what you saw,
I would actually kind of classify this, Deezy, as a little bit of a fakeout.
If you went back here, this is a rising wedge.
We didn't hit the resistance.
We broke through it,
but then quickly dropped back into it.
- And take a look at this. - Yeah.
What you're doing to predict what happens in price action--
come on now.
You go from the opening of the wedge.
You move that over to the breakout.
And sure enough, that was the price action we ended up getting back down here
a couple of months later.
Took a while to play out,
but it's still played its route later on even after the fakeout happened.
We're going to briefly interrupt this.
I just want to give a special shoutout to our sponsor Stake.
Big shout-out to Stake.
We love them.
So the same thing here, what I'm looking at,
you know, you can't predict a false breakout,
but you can start to sit here and say,
based off how traders are trading this right now, it should move to the downside.
And if it does break out at some point,
let's just pretend maybe it breaks out somewhere over here,
you're more than likely seeing another com--
Shiba Inu come down, what is that?
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 zeros
and then a 6 and a 4 follow it,
back down to levels we saw in June.
That kind of matches with some other things that I believe about how the space is moving.
Let's move over to Bitcoin this morning.
Right now, I told you, short-term, a little bullish on Bitcoin,
but longer term, still bearish.
One of the things that we just broke out on Bitcoin was a falling trading channel.
So this is where that kind of micro bullishness comes in.
Look at how we aft--
actually broke through the resistance,
came back down,
had some wicks dropped below,
but, for the most part, turned resistance into support,
and now we're our back trading within this flat range once again.
So a short-term pump back up to $29.5K is definitely not out of the cards.
But the macro, Deezy, this is where I get more concerned,
especially when you go out towards 2-day and 3-day.
You guys can see on oscillators--
by the way, this is Chart Prime,
but you're going to see the same thing if you go to normal oscillators,
if you go to Market Cipher,
if you go to Lux, whatever you're looking at.
Oscillators are dropping very rapidly.
Money flow is dropping rapidly.
And we're not oversold yet on these larger timeframes.
I believe, Deezy, that we're going to continue to keep this former resistance level of support.
But watch--
in this yellow box,
I believe that a $28,000 price, Dee--
Frankie talked about this yesterday.
I think there's a chance we retouch this rising blue level of support
later in August at $28,000.
And then it's the decision time.
Do we lose support at that point and drop down to $25,000 or lower?
Or do we make a bounce and try to set a new higher high?
As I mentioned the other day, I did mention this yesterday briefly,
not during the TA section,
but just when we were talking about price action in general,
when we go to log chart here on Bitcoin,
guys, historically, we have never, on Bitcoin, seen a red July
that wasn't at least followed by a red August.
That one red August was in 2016.
If I zoom in here, just a little more for you guys,
we had one more red month after red July,
and then we continue to rally.
But you can see, in 2011,
that started a multi-month slide,
back in 2014,
multi-month slide,
and back in 2019,
which the similarities between what we're seeing right now and 2019 continue to pile up.
If we were to match it perfectly,
we're not looking at a real bottom.
Not counting this COVID bottom that happened in March 2020.
I'm more looking around this range of November, December,
Probably more November looking for a true bottom on Bitcoin.
Ben talked about this yesterday.
When you're looking at 4-year cycle,
it looks like November of this year, more than likely, should be the bottom
before a little bit of sideways action,
which, again, take out COVID,
- and it would have been-- - When you say the bottom,
- you mean 2023 bottom? - I mean, bottom for this--
yeah, you're right.
- Not a new bear market bottom, - Okay.
but a new bottom for this little slump in Bitcoin price.
I'm thinking somewhere between $25,000 to $20,000.
I think if the bears get a lot of control, we're talking about $20,000.
At the moment, I'm pretty convinced $25,000 will be touched once again by Bitcoin.
The question is,
does it happen here in the next couple of weeks?
Or do we hold off till November?
Either way, history would say, guys, after setting, you know,
we technically have a green August right now,
but after setting a red July,
you do not see August turn green.
And a lot of times, you see August red, September red and October red.
And the question is, what happens in November?
That's what I'm going to keep my eye on.
Alright. My hot take, we can't--
it's going to be hard to predict.
I think a lot of people may be looking at this.
So I would be more apt to compare it to just broad 4-year cycles versus, you know,
looking at July's.
- But, you know, I think different charts are going-- - Well, that's-- they back each other up though.
So the 4-year cycle and looking at what red July's do,
they actually agree with each other that we should have some more red months.
- And here's another thing, again, - I have to check the 4-year cycle.
- it's an unpopular-- - The 3-year-10-month-cycle.
I'm giving an unpopular take.
But what's another unpopular take that I've given recently?
And that is XRP back down to 55¢.
And guess what?
Right now, we are sitting down at 66¢.
And if you look at the daily chart,
and you look at the oscillators,
the oscillators and the money flow,
everything is still flowing down.
I know a lot of other traders have kind of looked at 64¢
as an area to keep your eyes on,
but what I'm seeing on these larger timeframes,
as price is dropping on XRP, we're not really overextended yet.
So let's watch what happens when price gets to 64¢.
- But I'm expecting it to continue to drop. - Alright.
And I think I'm going to be right.
- I think 55¢ is in the cards. - Alright. Well, XRP community,
you have a challenge.
Market buy at 56¢.
Do not let it hit 55¢.
But just keep market buying.
- Keep market buying. - Yeah.