REPORT.
>> Reporter: YEAH.
SURE.
SEAN: JOINING ME NOW, REBECCA
GRANT, INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
PRESIDENT AND PETER BROOKS,
RETIRED NAVY COMMANDER AND
FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE.
REBECCA, I WANT TO COME TO YOU
FIRST.
WE HAVE THIS MISSILE STRIKE ONLY
12 MILES AWAY FROM POLAND.
THIS SEEMS LIKE AN ESCALATION
FROM PUTIN.
SHOULD WE BE CONCERNED?
>> YES, BECAUSE STRIKING OUT TO
THE WEST SHOWS THAT PUTIN IS
TRYING TO HIT THE SUPPLIES THAT
COME IN ON THAT ROUTE.
HE STRUCK TWO AIRFIELDS OUT
THERE, AND NOW HE WANTS TO MAKE
SURE THAT NATO GETS THE MESSAGE
MANY, HEY, I KNOW YOU’RE
SUPPLYING UKRAINE, AND I’M
CAPABLE OF STRIKING OUT THERE.
IT’S FAR TOO CLOSE TO THE BORDER
SO DEFINITELY A DANGEROUS SIGN.
SEAN: AND, PETER, WHAT’S
TROUBLING IS THIS MIGHT BE
INTENTIONAL, BUT IT’S 12 MILES
AWAY FROM POLAND.
IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG AND A
MISSILE GOES INTO POLAND,
OBVIOUSLY, YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE
A HEIGHTENED NATO.
THIS COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL
VERY QUICKLY.
I GUESS MY QUESTION FOR YOU IS
HOW WOULD NATO RESPOND IF THERE
WAS A MISSILE THAT GOES INTO
POLAND?
>> YEAH.
I MEAN, THE IMPORTANT THING TO
SERE -- SEE IF THIS WAS A
MISTAKE BY A LOCAL COMMANDER IN
TERMS OF LAUNCHING THIS MISSILE.
NATO WOULD GET TOGETHER TO TALK
ABOUT IT AND HOW THEY SHOULD
RESPONDENT RESPOND. -- RESPOND.
A RESPONSE PROBABLY COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT’S PROPORTIONAL.
THEY COULD DECIDE THAT IT’S A
MISTAKE AND THAT IT SHOULDN’T
HAPPEN AGAIN.
I MEAN, THERE’S THINGS THAT THEY
CAN CERTAINLY DO, BUT ONE OF THE
MOST IMPORTANT THINGS IS TO GET
TOGETHER AND DISCUSS THIS
POLITICALLY AND DECIDE HOW THEY
WANT TO RESPOND.
HOPEFULLY, WE NEVER IF GET TO
THIS, TO THAT POINT.
BUT, OBVIOUSLY, WITH A STRIKE
TODAY IT’S CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AND SOMETHING WE
NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT IN
ADVANCE OF SOMETHING LIKE THAT
HAPPENING.
SEAN: YOU CAN SEE HOW QUICKLY A
SITUATION COULD SPIRAL OUT OF
CONTROL, AND YOU COULD HAVE
ARMAGEDDON ON OUR HANDS.
REBECCA, SO WE’VE HEARD THAT A
RUSSIA’S BRINGING IN FOREIGN
FIGHTERS.
WE’VE HAD THE REPORT YESTERDAY
OR TODAY THAT RUSSIA HAS ASKED
CHINA FOR ECONOMIC AND MILITARY
AID.
WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT HOW THE
WAR’S GOING FOR RUSSIA?
>> WELL, THE WAR ISN’T GOING THE
WAY PUTIN HOPED IT WOULD AT
FIRST, BUT LET’S BE CLEAR,
THERE’S PRETTY -- IT’S PRETTY
GRIM RIGHT NOW.
AND WHAT WE SEE IS A TACTIC THAT
PUTIN USED TWO YEARS AGO,
BRINGING IN AROUND ILLLY TO
SAFER POSITIONS CLOSE TO KYIV
AND CONTINUING TO DO THE SMALL
UNIT ARMOR ATTACKS.
NO QUESTION PUTIN STILL IS
TRYING TO ENCIRCLE -- ENCIRCLE
KYIV AND BEAT THE RESISTANCE
THAT WAY.
WE’RE AT A REALLY CRITICAL
PHASE, AND THE ONLY THING
PUTIN’S GOING TO PAY ATTENTION
TO IS THE PROGRESS HIS FORCES
ARE MAKING ON THE GROUND.
SEAN: PETER, I’M SURPRISED HOW
MUCH INFORMATION THE AMERICAN
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY’S
ACTUALLY PUTTING OUT.
THEY WERE DOING THIS BEFORE
RUSSIA ATTACKED UKRAINE, LETTING
EVERYONE IN THE WORLD KNOW WHERE
THEIR TROOPS ARE MOVING, WHERE
THEY’RE GOING TO ATTACK.
BUT I THINK THE MOST RECENT
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNICATION HAS
COME THAT RUSSIA WAS ACTUALLY
TALKING TO CHINA.
WAS IN THE U.S.’ EFFORT TO
EMBARRASS PUTIN?
WHAT’S THE PURPOSE BEHIND
TELLING EVERYONE THAT RUSSIA
NEEDS HELP FROM CHINA?
>> WELL, ASSUMING THAT THESE
REPORTS ARE CORRECT AND IT DID
COME FROM INTELLIGENCE, I THINK
THE IDEA HERE WAS TO PRESSURE
THE CHINESE BECAUSE TODAY, YOU
KNOW, OUR NATIONAL SECURITY --
THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER,
JAKE SULLIVAN, WAS MEETING WITH
HIS CHINESE COUNTERPART IN ROME.
SO THIS NEWS GOT OUT AHEAD OF
TIME.
AND ALSO TO POTENTIALLY PREEMPT
ANY SORT OF COOPERATION BETWEEN
RUSH -- RUSSIA AND CHINA.
I THINK THIS SHOWS SOME OF THE
OTHER THINGS YOU MENTIONED AS
WELL, BRINGING IN OTHER FORCES,
THEIR DESPERATION.
I THINK THE CHINESE ARE GOING TO
BE SERIOUSLY CAUTIOUS ABOUT THIS
BECAUSE THEY DON’T WANT TO SET A
PRECEDENT, AND I’M SURE THAT
BOTH SIDES -- ASSUMING IT’S TRUE
MADE PUBLIC BECAUSE I DON’T
BELIEVE THAT THE CHINESE DO WANT
TO GET INVOLVED IN THE CONFLICT
IN UKRAINE.
SEAN SEAN YEAH.
THEY DON’T WANT THE CONSEQUENCES
FROM THE WEST, AND I THINK THOSE
COULD BE SEVERE.
REBECCA, ONE LAST QUICK QUESTION
FOR YOU.
TIME ON UKRAINE’S SIDE?
THE LONGER THEY’RE ABLE TO HOLD
OUT THE BETTER OFF THEY ARE, OR
WHAT’S YOUR ASSESSMENT?
>> YES, TIME IS ON THEIR SIDE.
UKRAINE HAS TO HOLD OUT LONG
ENOUGH FOR PUTIN TO DECIDE THAT
HE’S READY TO TALK OR FOR HIM TO
DECIDE THAT HE JUST DIDN’T BRING
ENOUGH OF AN ARMY TO TAKE THAT
COUNTRY.
EVERY DAY UKRAINE HOLDS OUT IS
BETTER, BUT WE MUST KEEP
RESUPPLYING THEM AND GIVING THEM
ALL THE INTELLIGENCE WE CAN FEED
THEM AS WELL.
SEAN: ABSOLUTELY.
GIVE THEM -- THEY WANT TO FIGHT,
THEY HAVE THE WILL TO FIGHT,
LET’S GIVE THEM THE ARMAMENTS TO
FIGHT BACK AND PUSH BACK AND,
HOPEFULLY, GET PUTIN TO THE
TABLE.