STEVE RATTNER AND TAX POLICY
EXPERT AND PROFESSOR OF LAW AT
EMORY UNIVERSITY, DOROTHY BROWN.
SO STEVE RATTNER, IM LOOKING
THROUGH THESE NUMBERS AND HERE
IS, HERE IS A CONTRAST, IT IS
STRIKING.
JOB PARTICIPATION, THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE LOOKING FOR JOBS FELL
LAST MONTH, WHILE JOB OPENINGS
SOARED TO HISTORIC HEIGHTS.
EXPLAIN THOSE TWO THINGS.
LESS PEOPLE LOOKING FOR JOBS
LAST MONTH, DESPITE THE FACT
THAT JOB OPENINGS ARE AT
HISTORIC HIGHS.
>> WELL, JOE, YOU GAVE ME A
GREAT LEAD-IN INTO MY CHART.
WE HAD A DECENT JOBS NUMBER ON
FRIDAY.
NOT QUITE WHAT PEOPLE HOPE FOR,
BUT BETTER CERTAINLY THAN APRIL.
BUT THE REALLY INTERESTING NEWS
IS WHAT YOU JUST POINTED TO,
WHICH HAS TO DO WITH LABOR FORCE
PARTICIPATION AND JOB OPENINGS.
AND WHATS BEEN HAPPENING IN
THIS ECONOMY, AND WHAT YOU CAN
SEE IN THIS CHART, ON THE
LEFT-HAND SIDE, IS THAT PEOPLE
LOOKING FOR WORK, JOB SEEKERS,
GRADUALLY ROSE BEFORE THE
PANDEMIC.
AND AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, IT
PLUMMETED.
AND AS YOU WOULD ALSO EXPECT, IT
BEGAN TO COME BACK.
BUT WHAT WAS PROBABLY LESS
LOGICAL OR LESS EXPECTED WAS
THAT IT THEN STAGNATED, BOUNCED
UP AND DOWN A LITTLE BIT, AND
THAT RED CIRCLE WITH THE LITTLE
LINE DOWN IT IS WHAT YOU JUST
ALLUDED TO, WHICH IS THAT THE
NUMBER OF ADULT AMERICANS
LOOKING FOR JOBS ACTUALLY FELL
BY A LITTLE BIT LAST MONTH.
AND CONTRAST WITH THE CHART ON
THE RIGHT, WHICH IS JOB
OPENINGS, AND YOU CAN SEE A
PATTERN YOUD EXPECT.
THE ECONOMY WAS DOING OKAY, JOB
OPENINGS ARE REASONABLY HIGH.
ECONOMY FALLS OFF A CLIFF.
ECONOMY STARTS TO RECOVER, JOB
OPENINGS COME BACK.
AND NOW THEY HAVE SOARED TO OVER
8.5 MILLION.
THAT IS AN ALL-TIME RECORD
NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THIS
COUNTRY.
SO THE CONUNDRUM, OBVIOUSLY --
>> SO HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THAT?
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THAT LESS
PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR JOBS,
WHILE WE HAVE RECORD JOB
OPENINGS?
>> WELL, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF
EXPLANATIONS, JOE.
AND LIKE EVERYTHING THAT GOES ON
THESE DAYS.
IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
POLITICIZED.
ONE EXPLANATION IS THE EFFECT OF
THE $300 A WEEK OF EXTRA
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE THAT MANY
AMERICANS ARE GETTING.
OTHER PEOPLE SAY THAT THEIR
CHILD CARE ISSUES, THEIR PUBLIC
HEALTH ISSUES, SOME BABY BOOMER
TYPES HAVE DECIDED SIMPLY TO
RETIRE FROM THE LABOR FORCE.
LEAVE THE LABOR FORCE,
DEPRESSING THE SIZE OF THE LABOR
FORCE.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A FRUITFUL
STUDY FOR ECONOMISTS FOR A VERY
LONG TIME.
BUT LET ME SHOW YOU WHAT THE
IMPACT OF ALL OF THAT IS
STARTING TO BE ON WAGES.
SO THIS LOOKS AT JUST BLUE
COLLAR WAGES IN LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY, AMONG OUR LOWEST
PAID PROFESSIONS.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IT WAS ON A
TREND LINE TO CONTINUE TO GO UP
FROM ABOUT $14.50 TO ABOUT 15 AN
HOUR RIGHT BEFORE THE PANDEMIC.
AND YOU CAN SEE A DOTTED
EXTRAPOLATION OF WHERE IT WOULD
HAVE GONE IN A NORMAL WORLD.
AND THEN THE PANDEMIC HITS.
NOT SURPRISINGLY, WAGES FALL.
BUSINESSES LAY OFF A LOT OF
PEOPLE.
HIRE FEWER PEOPLE, HIRE LOWER
PRICES, OR THEY SIMPLY CUT PAY.
SO WAGES BOUNCE ALONG, ALONG THE
BOTTOM.
AND THEN YOU HAVE THIS
PHENOMENON OF A LOT OF JOB
OPENINGS, AND NOT SO MANY PEOPLE
LOOKING FOR THE JOBS.
AND SO ITS FORCED BUSINESSES TO
RAISE THEIR WAGES.
AND NOW YOURE IN A SITUATION,
WHERE FOR A HOTEL WORKER, FOR A
BAR WORKER, A RESTAURANT WORKER,
NOT ALL OF THEM, OBVIOUSLY, BUT
ON AVERAGE, THEYRE RECEIVING
AGES OF $16 AN HOUR, JUST IS
UNDER $16 AN HOUR.
WHICH IS ABOVE WHERE WE WOULD
HAVE BEEN IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, HAD
THE ECONOMY JUST BEEN ON PRESENT
COURSE AND SPEED.
AND THE BIG QUESTION IS, WILL
BUSINESS TRY TO PASS THESE COSTS
ALONG?
THIS IS GREAT FOR WORKERS.
LETS NOT KID OURSELVES.
THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
HAPPEN FOR WORKERS.
BUT IT WILL ADD TO COSTS FOR
BUSINESS.
AND WILL BUSINESSES ADD THESE
COSTS ALONE OR WILL THEY ABSORB
THEM?
ONE OTHER INTERESTING PHENOMENON
I WANT TO SHOW YOU ON THE
POLITICS OF ALL OF THIS, ITS
PRETTY AMAZING.
THIS MAP SHOWS EVERY STATE BASED
ON WHO THE GOVERNOR IS.
WHETHER THE GOVERNOR IS A
REPUBLICAN OR A DEMOCRAT.
AND IN EVERY STATE IN WHICH A
REPUBLICAN IS THE GOVERNOR,
EXCEPT FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND
VERMONT, AND WE CAN ARGUE ABOUT
HOW REPUBLICAN THOSE STATES ARE,
ANYWAY.
EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN STATE
EXCEPT THOSE TWO HAS DECIDED TO
ELIMINATE THE EXTRA UNEMPLOYMENT
BENEFITS BEFORE THE EARLY
SEPTEMBER EXPIRATION.
EVERY BLUE STATE, BLUE GOVERNOR,
BLUE STATE, HAS NOT DECIDED TO
DO THAT.
IN OER WORDS, IS KEEPING THE
$300 A WEEK UNTIL IT EXPIRES, AT
LEAST FOR NOW, IN EARLY
SEPTEMBER.
SO THIS IS LIKE MANY THINGS IN
LIFE TODAY, THIS HAS NOT BECOME
A MATTER OF ECONOMIC POLICY.
ITS A MATTER OF ALMOST BECOMING
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY.
AND WHEN ITS ALL OVER, WERE
GOING TO FIND HOW MUCH OF AN
EFFECT THESE HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT
BENEFITS HAD ON JOBS VERSUS ALL
THE OTHER THINGS THAT ARE GOING
ON IN THE ECONOMY, JOE.
>> EXACTLY.
AND DOROTHY BROWN, IM CURIOUS,
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE REASON
BEHIND THESE TRENDS, THERE IS
DEBATE.
AND IT DOES GET POLITICAL, BUT
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT MANY OF THE
REASONS ARE TRUE AT THE SAME
TIME
TIME?
>> WELL, FIRST I WANT TO SAY,
YES, THERE ARE WORKERS WHO ARE
MAKING HIGHER MONEY, BUT SO ARE
CEOs.
THATS THE CHART WE ALSO COULD
BE TALKING ABOUT, RIGHT?
SIGNIFICANT PAY INCREASES DURING
A PANDEMIC, WHILE THEYRE
CUTTING STAFF, CEO PAY HAS
INCREASED.
AND THEN I CAN TALK ABOUT THE
PEW RESEARCH STUDY THAT SHOWED
ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF UNEMPLOYED
AMERICANS ARE THINKING ABOUT
WHAT THEY WANT TO DO GOING
FORWARD.
DO THEY WANT TO GO BACK TO THE
JOB THEY HAD?
IS THE JOB THEY HAD EVEN
AVAILABLE FOR THEM TO GO BACK
TO?
OR DO THEY WANT TO RE-EXAMINE
THEIR FIELD AND THEIR
OCCUPATION?
AND TWO-THIRDS SAID THEY DID.
SO WE TALK ABOUT A 5.8%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, BUT ITS 9.1%
FOR PLAQUEBLACK AMERICANS AND 7.
HISPANIC AMERICANS.
1.8 MILLION FEWER WOMEN IN THE
WORKFORCE AND 7.5 MILLION
OVERALL FEWER JOBS.
THIS ECONOMY IS NOT BACK FOR
EVERYONE.
AND WHAT A LOT OF WORKERS HAVE
SEEP DURING THE PANDEMIC IS THE
EMPLOYER THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE
WORKING FOR IS NOT NECESSARILY
THEIR EMPLOYER, RIGHT.
THEY WORKED FROM HOME, BUT THEY
WERE SURVEILLED.
THEY HAD EMPLOYERS CHECKING UP
ON THEM.
AND YOU DIDNT NECESSARILY THINK
THAT WAS THE KIND OF EMPLOYER
YOU WORKED FOR.
SO, YES, IT MAKES SENSE FOR
PEOPLE TO SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT, I
DONT THINK I WANT TO GO BACK
THERE.
>> STEVE RATTNER, LETS TALK
ABOUT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.
AND WE SHOWED THAT CHART OF THE
REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS LETTING THE
BENEFITS EXPIRE EARLY, THE
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS EXPIRE
EARLY.
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SEEMED
TO SEND A SIGNAL LAST WEEK THAT
IT WAS NOT OVERLY CONCERNED IF
REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS LET THAT
$300 EXTRA BENEFIT EXPIRE EARLY.
IM CURIOUS WHAT YOUR THOUGHTS
ARE ON THAT.
DO THEY BELIEVE THAT THAT WILL
MOVE MORE PEOPLE INTO THE
WORKFORCE AND MAKE UNEMPLOYMENT
NUMBERS GO EVEN HIGHER?
>> I THINK IF YOU READ A LITTLE
BIT BETWEEN THE LINES, BUT NOT A
LOT IN WHAT PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS
BEEN SAYING, HE DID SAY A MONTH
OR SO AGO AFTER THE LAST JOBS
REPORT CAME OUT AND WAS
DISAPPOINTING THAT IN ORDER TO
RECEIVE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE,
EVERY AMERICAN SHOULD BE LOOKING
FOR A JOB.
THATS A PROVISION THATS NOT
ALWAYS ENFORCED AND IT WASNT
ENFORCED AT ALL DURING THE
PANDEMIC.
AND SO IT WAS, I THINK, A SIGNAL
THAT THE PRESIDENT IS SAYING
THAT PEOPLE CANT SIMPLY DECIDE
THEYRE UNEMPLOYED AND OUT OF
THE WORKFORCE.
THEY HAVE TO BE LOOKING FOR A
JOB IN ORDER TO GET THE
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE.
SO THATS A POSITIVE THING.
AND I DO SUSPECT, ALTHOUGH THEY
HAVENT REALLY SAID IT, QUITE
FRANKLY, THAT THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION IS AWARE THAT THE
DIFFERENCE IN HOW THESE STATES
BEHAVED IS WHAT COULD WELL
EFFECT LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT.
AND I DO THINK, LOOK,
ANECDOTALLY, I TALK TO
BUSINESSMEN ALL DAY, EVERY DAY,
PRETTY MUCH.
AND TO A PERSON, THEY WILL TELL
YOU, IT IS REALLY HARD TO FIND
PEOPLE AND THEYRE HAVING TO CUT
BACK ON SOME OF THEIR SALES AND
PRODUCTION BECAUSE OF THAT.
AND TO THE POINT THAT WAS MADE A
SECOND AGO, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
PEOPLE ARE BEING MORE CHOOSEY
ABOUT WHAT JOBS THEY TAKE.
THERE WAS A SURVEY I SAW THE
OTHER DAY THAT ABOUT HALF THE
PEOPLE THAT ARE LOOKING FOR A
JOB WANT A JOB THAT ALLOWS FOR
REMOTE WORK.
WELL, HALF THE COUNTRY CANT BE
WORKING REMOTELY, UNFORTUNATELY.
SO I THINK THE PANDEMIC HAS
ALTERED PEOPLES VIEWS ABOUT
WORK, WHETHER THEY WANT TO GO
BACK TO WORK, WHETHER THEY FEEL
ANY PRESSING NEED TO GO BACK TO
WORK.
AND I THINK THE $300 A WEEK PLUS
THE STIMULUS CHECKS, PLUS
CERTAIN OTHER BENEFITS HAVE
PLAYED A ROLE IN ALL OF THAT.
>> PROFESSOR BROWN, ITS
JONATHAN LEMIRE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, TREASURY
SECRETARY JANET YELLEN SECURED
COMMITMENTS FROM MEMBERS OF THE
G-7 ABOUT THE 15% MINIMUM TAX.
OF COURSE, NOW, IT GETS THAT
MUCH HARDER IF SUCH A THING IS
GOING TO HAPPEN IN CONGRESS TO
SIGN OFF ON IT, TOO.
CAN YOU SPEAK ABOUT THE
REVOCATIONS OF WHAT THIS DEAL
MEANS, BOTH GLOBALLY, BUT THE
PATH AHEAD FOR PUTTING IT IN
PLACE HERE AT HOME AND WHAT IT
COULD MEAN DOMESTICALLY?
>> WELL, I THINK A MINIMUM TAX
IS CRITICAL TO PREVENTING TAX
HAVENS AND COMPANIES FROM
EVADING AND AVOIDING INCOME TAX.
PAYING THEIR -- I WOULD SAY,
THEIR FAIR SHARE.
AND I THINK PRESIDENT BIDEN OR,
I THINK SECURING THIS ABROAD IS
OBVIOUSLY A HUNDRED TIMES EASIER
THAN SECURING IT AT HOME, RIGHT?
WE DONT SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT,
CERTAINLY NOT BIPARTISAN
SUPPORT.
AND I DONT KNOW IF IN THE
SENATE, THERE ARE 50 DEMOCRATS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT IT, BUT THE
MINIMUM TAX IS CRITICAL TO STEM