This map represents the real backbone of the world’s economy.
This is one of the most important enclaves on the planet: the strait of HORMUZ.
Maybe this is the first time you’ve heard of this place.
Nevertheless, 1 out of 5 oil barrels bought across the globe departs from here.
Most of the Gulf’s production comes from this port.
As you can see, we have three countries here: The United Arab Emirates, Oman and… the
Islamic Republic of IRAN.
So this place could become the battlefield for a war between America and Iran.
And, believe me, this scenario is pretty likely.
In fact, the only reason there is no war between these two countries now is because of a last-minute
decision taken by Donald Trump himself.
By the end of this video, you’ll understand what’s going on in this very important region.
Let’s be clear here: oil is the lifeblood of Today’s economy.
Maybe one day this will change.
But nowadays, whether we like it or not, we need dinosaur juice for, virtually, everything.
And most of this crude is carried on tankers.
This explains why news like this is so worrisome.
Oil tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz requires an ‘international response,’
US envoy to Iran says
At the time this video was made, 6 oil tankers have been attacked.
Somebody put limpet mines on the ship hulls.
Limpet mines are not very powerful explosives.
But they are destructive enough to make a hole in the hull so the ship can’t set sail.
And now you might be wondering…
Who did planted those limpet mines?
At this moment, nobody knows for sure.
But Donald Trump believes this was Iran’s doing.
Think about it, with the nuclear sanctions, Iran can hardly sell its oil to anybody.
This is why, the White House believes, since they can’t export crude, they decided to
close the strait of HORMUZ.
Add to this the fact that America hates Iran.
And Saudi Arabia hates Iran even more.
And Saudi Arabia is America’s best friend, especially under Trump’s administration.
So… in other words, Washington doesn’t need many excuses to attack Teheran.
And Iran is making it even easier for them.
In fact, in response to those attacks on the tankers, America sent a drone to the Iranian
coast.
This drone was knocked down by a missile sent by Iran.
The situation was extremely tense.
But it could get even worse.
Just think about it: so far we’re talking about holes in ships and a knocked down drone
but… no human losses.
This is where Trump had to make a decision.
Should he answer the attack on the drone or not?
An airstrike on the region would surely mean the deaths of Iranian people.
And if America killed Iranians, Iran would want to kill Americans.
And in that situation, a dead American soldier would be more than enough for Donald Trump
to start a war against Iran.
That’s exactly when EURASIA GROUP, a consultancy, said that there was a 40% chance that the
airstrike would start a war.
And then, against the odds, Donald Trump made a sensible last-minute decision:
On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters.
We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked,
how many will die.
150 people, sir, was the answer from a General.
10 minutes before the strike I stopped it.
--Donad Trump on twitter
So now the question is…
How did we get here?
Is a war between America and Iran really that probable?
How responsible would Donald Trump be for it?
And most important of all…
Who is attacking these tankers?
Today we are going to answer all of these questions but, before we do, let’s take
a look back at the history.
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
On VisualPolitik, we have a series of videos devoted to Iran sanctions.
If you want to understand all of this in depth, you should check it out.
But I’ll make a quick summary for everyone new to the channel.
For years, Iran was isolated from international trade as a punishment for its nuclear program.
In the year 2015, Obama made a deal with Teheran.
Basically, the United States would lift most of the trade embargo in exchange for Iran
stopping its manufacturing of nukes.
All of a sudden, Iran could restart its oil exports.
But a year later, Trump came to office.
One of his first policies was to break that nuclear deal with Iran.
According to him, Iran never stopped its nuclear program despite what anybody said.
So, from one day to the next, America went back to the embargo.
But Trump didn’t stop here!
His goal was to make the ENTIRE WORLD stop trading with Iran, not only American companies.
This is where one debate started…
Why would a European company obey what Washington said?
Well… months later, we can say that Trump won that fight.
Most of the world has stopped investmenting in Iran.
This includes Renault factories and French oil rigs.
As you can imagine, this has had terrible consequences for Iran’s economy.
Iran's Latest Inflation Figure Tops 50 Percent - Food Prices Jump 85 Percent
Yes, you heard that right.
Despite Iran having the World’s fourth largest oil reserves, nobody dares to buy from them.
So the country is on the edge of collapse.
And on top of that are all of the protests against the government.
At this point, I know what many of you might be thinking: is this the end of the Ayatollah
regime?
In fact, the opposite is true.
What is happening is what we predicted months ago here, at VisualPolitik.
By the way… this is a good moment to remind you that we publish brand new videos every
week, so you should subscribe to this channel aaaaand hit that bell button!
When you hit the bell button, you receive a notification any time we post a new video
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the World’s politics.
So, as we said on that video months ago, in Iranian politics, there are three main factions:
reformists, moderates and radicals.
Iran’s current president, HASSAN ROUHANI is a moderate.
This is why he was willing to reach that nuclear deal with America.
But after the conversations failed, his political capital fell to its lowest point.
And who wins in this scenario?
Exactly!
The radicals.
Those who wanted to keep the nuclear program at any cost and never wanted to talk with
the White House.
So, among these radicals, we have a very important group, the ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard is an elite group created in order to maintain the values
of the Ayatollah revolution.
They have state of the art weapons and world-class training.
And, believe me, they have never been as powerful as they are now.
Iran’s Elite Defense Force Finds New Funding Sources as Tension Rises With U.S.
As you know, Iran plays its role as a regional power and it participates in foreign Wars.
The group that trains the pro-Iranian warriors in countries like Siria, Lebanon and Yemen
is this Revolutionary Guard.
In recent years, the troops trained by them have increased by 20%.
For example, Hezbollah or the Houthi rebels are so deadly because of this training.
And how does the Revolutionary Guard get its funding?
With state monopolies.
A good share of Iran’s economy is in their hands.
For example, the Iranian telecom company is owned by them.
And in the past few years, many other businesses are falling under their control.
Here’s another example: TOTAL is a French oil company.
With the Trump sanctions, they had to abandon all of their oil rigs.
So guess who’s taking them now?
Exactly!
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS DRILL INTO IRAN'S GAS POTENTIAL
In other words, Iran’s economy is like a cake.
Now the cake is getting smaller and smaller.
But the Revolutionary Guard is having a bigger and bigger share of it.
At this moment, we can say they are more powerful than the president himself.
And this explains news like this.
Iran nuclear deal: Enriched uranium limit will be breached on 27 June
In other words: officially, Iran is restarting its nuclear program.
If Trump thought that sanctions would push the Ayatollah into the corner… his plan
has just backfired.
But wait a minute now!
If you thought the situation couldn’t get any worse… pay attention to this next chapter.
THE FORGOTTEN WAR
War in Yemen has sort of become the Arab Vietnam.
Yemen is the only poor country in the Arabian peninsula.
And this is the battlefield on which the Saudis and the Iranians fight their proxy war.
Initially, this was meant to be a quick war.
At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia has the third most expensive army on the planet, with
top-notch weaponry, American support and tons of money.
But, as we explained in this video, Money can buy good weapons but not a good strategy.
This is why those Houthi rebels are causing such a big headache for the Saudis.
And… this is a hell of a problem!
Despite losing the war, the Saudis have enough money to keep fighting without surrendering.
As long as America and the UK keep sending weapons, Saudi Arabia will keep bombing.
And as long as Iran keeps supporting the Houthis, the war in Yemen won’t budge.
Nowadays, the violence in this region is so insane that it’s reached beyond Yemeni borders.
Yemen's Houthi rebels strike Saudi airport
This year, in 2019, the Houthi rebels attacked a power plant and an oil pipe in Saudi territory.
But if you thought that was bad enough, here’s news that has shaken the World’s economic
backbone.
Two oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman
At the time this video was made, 6 oil tankers have been attacked.
Who orchestrated these attacks?
We still don’t know.
America thinks Iran is behind this.
And… it seems reasonable that Houthi rebels did this.
These rebels have Iranian training but they might be acting on their own behalf.
Not only that!
Remember that the ones who are training this group are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
And those boys don’t need Teheran permission to do anything.
In other words: perhaps Rouhani doesn’t want to attack oil tankers.
But even if it was him… he might not be able to control the Houthi rebels.
Anyway, this is just speculation.
The truth is, at the time we made this video, nobody has claimed responsibility for these
attacks.
Meanwhile, America has sent 1500 troops to the area.
This means that, so far, Uncle Sam can secure the Strait of Hormuz.
But there are still big risks.
You see, no matter how much military presence you have, there can always be somebody putting
a mine on one of those tankers.
OK, this doesn’t have to be a big attack.
Nobody dies.
But this mine is big enough to blast a hole in the hull and stop the tanker from sailing.
What does this all mean?
That the companies that insure those tankers might raise their premiums.
And this would have a direct effect on oil prices worldwide.
All of this means that, whatever military presence they send, America needs a diplomatic
solution.
But…
Iranians don’t trust Donald Trump anymore!
After all, he is the one who broke a previously signed deal.
So who can do this job?
Let’s have a look, shall we?
OUR MAN IN TOKYO
Do you remember Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister?
Anytime we talk about him on VisualPolitik it’s because we’re talking about economics,
a crisis, or the Olympic games.
The truth is…
Japan has never been big on diplomacy… til now.
In June 2019, Shinzo Abe travelled to Tehran to hold negotiations on behalf of Donald Trump.
At the end of the day…
Who wouldn’t trust the Japanese?
Huh?
Just… look at his eyes!
Wouldn’t you have a beer with him?
Wouldn’t you add him on Facebook if he sent you a friend request?
It’s uncle Shinzo, your cool Japanese friend!
So… did this plan work?
Well… the answer is a clear NO.
Two Japan-Bound Tankers Reportedly Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz
That’s what I call not receiving somebody with open arms…
So, in conclusion, Shinzo Abe returned home really sad and Donad Trump started to do his
thing.
After the attack on those tankers, America sent a drone to spy on the Iranian coast.
And what do you think happened?
Well, I told you before!
The Iranian army knocked it down.
And right at this moment, the tension was higher than ever.
At this very moment, the consultancy, EURASIA GROUP, raised the chance of war from 30% to
40%.
And it could get even worse.
What could Donald Trump have done after his drone had been knocked down?
On one hand, he could make an air strike.
But this would probably end with the loss of human lives.
And if, then, Iran answered with another air strike, some American soldiers might have
died.
And, my dear viewers, if an American died during this conflict… Trump would be almost
forced to start a war.
And now you might be wondering…
Does America really want a war here?
It would make no sense whatsoever.
First of all, as we’ve seen, Iran has a really big and well trained army.
We’re talking about a country of 80M people.
This is twice as much as the population of Iraq.
But not only that!
Do you really think anybody wants to have a war at the Strait of Hormuz?
In this case, America and the rest of the World has much more to lose than Iran.
At the end of the day, Iran cannot export most of their oil.
And nobody wants such a big spike in the oil market price.
So now the questions go to all of you…
Do you think that, despite everything, we’ll end up witnessing a war between America and
Iran?
Do you think the Iran nuclear sanctions were a good idea?
How would you solve this problem?
Please, leave your answer in the comment section below.
Also, visit reconsider media.com, the podcast that provided the vocals in this episode that
were not mine.
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I’ll see you next time.