>> THANK YOU. >>> AND NOW TO THE QUESTION OF
WHO WILL BE THE DEMOCRATIC
NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT.
WE TURN TO OUR NEXT GUEST, NEERA
TANDEN, THE FORMER SENIOR
ADVISER TO PRESIDENT OBAMA AND
HILLARY CLINTON.
HILLARY CLINTON. SHE’S THE PRESIDENT AND CEO OF
THE CENTER FOR AMERICAN
PROGRESS.
PROGRESS. NEERA, LET’S TAKE A LOOK,
ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT CNN POLL,
THE LATEST POLL OF THE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FIELD BECAUSE
IT’S KIND OF FASCINATING.
JOE BIDEN AT 29%.
A JUMP OF 7 POINTS IN THAT POLL.
BERNIE SANDERS HOLDING STEADY AT
15.
15. ELIZABETH WARREN HOLDING STEADY
AT 14.
AT 14. KAMALA HARRIS DOWN TO 5%.
A DROP OF 12 POINTS.
PETE BUTTIGIEG HOLDING STEADY AT
5.
5. BETO O’ROURKE HOLDING STEADY AT
3.
3. NONE OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES
GETS MORE THAN 2% OF THE VOTE.
SO, NEERA, WHAT IS YOUR READING
OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THIS
ROUND OF POLLING?
>> YOU KNOW, I THINK ONE WAY TO
LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IS
THAT ESSENTIALLY THIS IS THE
CONTOURS OF THE RACE.
THEN WE HAVE THESE DEBATES WHICH
CREATE A FLASH POINT, BUT THIS
MIGHT BE THE EQUILIBRIUM UNTIL
WE REALLY GET TO IOWA.
POLLS IN IOWA ARE DIFFERENT THAN
THESE POLLS, THAN THE NATIONAL
POLLS, AND IOWA CAN CHANGE THE
CALCULUS PRETTY DRAMATICALLY FOR
THE NATIONAL POLLS.
WE SAW THAT IN 2007.
WE DEFINITELY SAW THAT IN
2007/2008.
2007/2008. WE SAW THAT IN 2015/2016.
CANDIDATES WHO CAN SURGE IN IOWA
CAN REALLY CHANGE THE TRAJECTORY
OF HOW THEY DO NATIONALLY.
SO, YOU KNOW, MY TAKE HERE IS
THAT THE VICE PRESIDENT IS DOING
WELL BECAUSE HE -- THERE’S BEEN
A SERIES OF POLLS OVER THE LAST
MONTH IN WHICH IT SHOWS THAT --
THEY SHOW THAT HE IS THE BEST
CANDIDATE AGAINST TRUMP.
ELECTABILITY IS STILL A CRITICAL
ISSUE.
ISSUE. AND I THINK FOR A LOT OF
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, WHILE WE ALL
ENGAGED IN ALL THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THESE CANDIDATES, THEY
ARE FUNDAMENTALLY THINKING THAT
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE PRETTY
SMALL IN COMPARISON TO THE
DIFFERENCE WITH DONALD TRUMP
HIMSELF.
HIMSELF. PARTICULARLY AFTER EVENTS IN EL
PASO, IN CALIFORNIA, YOU KNOW,
THE DANGER OF TRUMP I THINK
ALMOST HELPS BIDEN.
BUT, AGAIN, IT’S VERY EARLY.
>> WELL, THAT IS THE RACHEL
BITECOFER POINT, THAT THE VOTER
IS SO DRIVER BY THE FEAR OF
DONALD TRUMP AND THAT’S WHAT
COULD BE SUPPORTING THE BIDEN
CANDIDACY.
CANDIDACY. IT SEEMS TO BE THE PRINCIPLE IN
JOE BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN
ADVERTISING.
ADVERTISING. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THIS NEW
CAMPAIGN AD FROM JOE BIDEN.
>> WE KNOW IN OUR BONES THIS
ELECTION IS DIFFERENT.
THE STAKES ARE HIGHER.
THE THREAT MORE SERIOUS.
WE HAVE TO BEAT DONALD TRUMP.
AND ALL THE POLLS AGREE JOE
BIDEN IS THE STRONGEST DEMOCRAT
TO DO THE JOB.
>> AND NEERA, I WANT TO GIVE
CREDIT TO THE OTHER PEOPLE IN
THIS POLL WHO DON’T MAKE THAT 3%
CUT BECAUSE RIGHT BELOW BETO
O’ROURKE YOU HAVE CORY BOOKER AT
2, JULIAN CASTRO AT 2, TULSI
GABBARD AT 2 WITH A MARGIN OF
ERROR.
ERROR. CORY BOOKER COULD BE UP THERE IN
THE BUTTIGIEG CATEGORY AT THIS
POINT.
POINT. SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT HERE AT THE
LOWER END OF THIS POLL.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> ABSOLUTELY. AND, AGAIN, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE
REPORTS OF DIFFERENT CANDIDATES
DOING REALLY WELL IN EARLY
STATES.
STATES. BOOKER DOING WELL IN IOWA.
GETTING REALLY GREAT CROWDS.
WARREN DOING VERY WELL AND DOING
WELL IN IOWA POLLS.
BETO O’ROURKE, YOU KNOW, A LOT
OF DEMOCRATS HAVE APPRECIATED
WHAT HE’S DONE OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS, REALLY TAKING
IT TO TRUMP.
SO I DON’T THINK BEING -- I
DON’T THINK WE SHOULD SEE THESE
POLLS AS DETERMINATIVE.
THEY ARE FLASH POINTS AT THIS
TIME.
TIME. AND, YOU KNOW, I’VE BEEN PARTS
OF CAMPAIGNS THAT WON AND LOST
THAT WERE DOING WELL AT THIS
POINT IN THE ELECTION CYCLE.
I DO THINK WE SHOULD THINK ABOUT
WHAT’S ENERGIZING VOTERS.
AND TO RACHEL BITECOFER’S POINT,
I DO AGREE WITH HER
FUNDAMENTALLY THAT TRUMP IS THE
DRIVER BOTH AMONGST REPUBLICANS
AND DEMOCRATS.
AND DEMOCRATS. AND TRUMP HAS -- IS MAKING
DEMOCRATS VERY MUCH FOCUS ON
ELECTABILITY IN A WAY THAT THEY
HAVEN’T IN ANY ELECTION IN
REALLY MY LIFETIME.
THE CONCERN IS SO FUNDAMENTAL
BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP IS SUCH A
THREAT TO PRETTY MUCH CORE
DEMOCRATIC VALUES, AND SO
EVERYONE IS REALLY MEASURING WHO
CAN TAKE ON TRUMP, AND I ALSO
THINK PART OF WHAT’S HAPPENING,
AND I DO THINK THIS IS A PART OF
THE 2018 ANALYSIS, IT IS
ABSOLUTELY THE CASE THAT PEOPLE
WERE VOTING FOR AND AGAINST
TRUMP.
TRUMP. AND LOTS OF PEOPLE CAME OUT TO
VOTE AGAINST TRUMP.
BUT ACCORDING TO A LOT OF
ANALYSIS, ONE GROUP HAS DONE
THIS, ESSENTIALLY THERE WERE,
YOU KNOW, 90% OF THE DEMOCRATIC
SURGE VOTE -- 90% OF THE MARGIN
VOTE, I SHOULD SAY, THE VOTE
THAT LED TO THE HOUSE VICTORY
WERE VOTERS WHO HAD VOTED FOR
TRUMP IN 2016 AND MOVED TO
DEMOCRATS IN 2018.
SO IT’S REALLY AN AN STRATEGY.
THERE ARE VOTERS.
YOU SEE THIS IN THE POLLING YOU
JUST ANNUNCIATED.
JUST ANNUNCIATED. WHITE NON COLLEGE WOMEN WHO WERE
2 TO 1 AGAINST HILLARY ARE NOW
43% FOR TRUMP, 49% FOR
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. THAT IS A BIG MOVE AMONGST THOSE
VOTERS WHO ARE NOT SUPER
PARTISAN.
PARTISAN. THEY TEND TO BE INDEPENDENT.
AND SO I THINK THAT -- I THINK
THAT’S AN ARGUMENT THAT BIDEN IS
USING.
USING. THAT HE CAN APPEAL TO THOSE
VOTERS.
VOTERS. SANDERS ALSO SAYS HE CAN APPEAL
TO THOSE VOTERS.
I THINK DEMOCRATS ARE MAKING A
VERY COMPLICATED VIEW ABOUT WHO
CAN PUT TOGETHER A BROAD
COALITION TO TAKE ON TRUMP.
>> NEERA TANDEN, I KNOW THAT
POLLS ARE EARLY.
WE ALL KNOW THAT.
BUT WHEN YOU SEE IN THE POLLS
WHAT YOU’RE OPENING TO SEE IN
THE POLLS, IT’S WORTH
ACKNOWLEDGING.
ACKNOWLEDGING. AND PEOPLE DO WITHIN THE
CAMPAIGNS.