It has been some years now since the vast majority of international analysts declared
that the absolute domination of the world by the United States had come to an end.
That scenario that resulted from the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet
Union, and that nurtured a unipolar world presided over by Uncle Sam, had diminished
for many.
Why?
Well for one very simple reason, because of the rise of a country that began to stand
up to the United States.
And, no, obviously, we are not talking about a renewed Russia after the fall of the USSR,
but about the Asian giant, we are talking, of course, about China.
And no wonder, after all, we are talking about a country that has become the largest industrial
power and the second largest economy on the planet.
China is much closer to American gold than Japanese bronze.
But this is not just an economic issue.
China is also, and increasingly so, a major military power.
In fact, leaving nuclear capabilities aside, China may already have the second most capable
armed forces in the world.
And it stands to reason that, with such industrial, economic and military power...
The end of the unipolar world is not just a foregone conclusion, it is already a fact.
Of course, keeping pace with the United States is no easy task.
And although China has made impressive efforts, many analysts are already pointing to the
Asian giant's fatigue.
Especially since a large, modern military needs one thing above all: money.
And so, today here on VisualPolitik, we are asking a few questions:
What is China's situation?
Is it possible that the slowdown or even the crisis is slowing down its military commitment?
How is it getting stronger?
Did you know that China already has the largest naval force in the world?
What could this mean?
Well, let's answer all these questions.
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(XI JINPING, THE ECONOMIC ANTI-GURU?)
For decades, China has defied all evidence and predictions to become the largest autocracy
and a fairly successful authoritarian regime.
If it was once thought that development would bring greater openness and higher levels of
freedom, the facts have shown that this thesis was not correct.
Since the 1970s, with Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms and open-minded policies, and thanks
to its abundant demographics, energy and water resources, China managed to lift 800 million
people out of poverty and grow by 10% per year until the end of Hu Jintao's term in
2012.
However, since Xi Jinping came to power, and particularly in recent years, China has begun
to take a different path:
Since the arrival of Xi Jinping to the presidency, some of the measures that brought the People's
Republic of China to the world podium have suffered a major setback: Xi Jinping has devolved
into much more authoritarian and interventionist forms.
He has strengthened the State surveillance apparatus, prioritized state-owned enterprises
(SOEs), including showering large amounts of capital on many zombie state-owned enterprises.
What’s more, Xi's China no longer has the advantages of his predecessors.
Wage costs have risen, the real estate market is saturated, the country is importing more
and more energy, and China's population is aging and shrinking.
By 2050, estimates suggest that 700 million workers will have to support 500 million pensioners,
300 million more than today.
Therefore, it is not surprising that China is no longer showing the growth it had before
the arrival of Xi Jinping.
In fact, since the 2008 crisis, China's economic growth has practically continued to fall.
Xi has failed to slow the downturn in China's economy.
And this despite the fact that he has used huge public spending packages to try to do
so.
And it's not just about that.
As we have told you many times in our Patreon bulletin, The Weekly Snapshot, the Chinese
economy is facing a lot of problems.
By the way, if you like what we do, and want to help us grow and keep improving, you can
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But having said that, if we’re talking about problems in China, we have to take into account
this fact as well.
Look at this.
(China's debt-to-GDP ratio rises to record 279.7% on credit boom.
– Bloomberg)
This is coupled with the closure of 4.4 million businesses that were forced to close due to
the harsh "Covid-zero" policy.
And, while it is true that unemployment has fallen from 5.3% to 5.2%, the reality is that
youth unemployment stood at over 21% in June of this year.
And the truth is that, in general, economic forecasts for China are being revised downwards
compared to previous periods in its history.
For example, Goldman Sachs, which predicted that the Chinese economy would surpass the
American economy in 2026 and that by 2050 its GDP would be double that of Uncle Sam's,
had to revise its forecasts last year.
At that time it predicted that China would overtake the US by 2035 and that, at most,
it would exceed US GDP by only 15%.
Perhaps they are even less optimistic today.
In fact, more and more analysts are questioning whether China will even catch up with the
United States.
And that's talking about GDP in absolute terms and without taking anything else into account.
And, keep in mind this is not an anti-China statement or anything of the sort.
Quite the contrary.
At VisualPolitik we have celebrated and recounted the great progress made by this country.
A country that, in general terms, has made a very positive contribution to the world
in the last 40 years.
Even so, for a few years now we have also been telling you that things are deteriorating
both economically and politically, or at least are no longer going well.
We told you about it a couple of years ago, and that is what is happening.
Because beyond the propaganda, the data are on the table.
Of course, wait a minute, because many of you may consider that the fact that the Asian
giant may not surpass the United States economically is excellent news.
But, guess what?
Many of the analysts making this prediction also argue that this could pose a serious
danger.
But...
How is that possible?
Isn't the opposite supposed to be the most dangerous thing?
Well...
Listen up.
(THE MIGHTY CHINESE NAVY)
I am sure many of you have heard in recent years that the rise of China could put the
United States in serious trouble.
There have even been some reputable analysts, such as Graham Allison of Harvard University,
who have suggested that the rise of China and the consequent fall of the United States
would lead to an inevitable war.
However, looking at China's current situation and its increasingly poor growth projections,
many analysts are already beginning to set Allison's theory aside.
Today, these analysts have begun to embrace another theory: China is reaching its peak,
which is still below the United States, and once it reaches that point, it will begin
its decline.
Well, according to them, this scenario is the truly worrisome one for the US and for
the rest of the world.
But why is that?
For one simple reason: because, just as there is no animal more dangerous than one that
is wounded, there is no country more dangerous than one that is in decline.
When, in order to try to prevent their fall, they often resort to violence.
And, do you know what China has been doing all these years?
Well...
Take a look.
Indeed, it has been increasing its defense budget: by 9% per year since the Armed Forces
modernization announced in the 1990s was launched.
In this way, China has reached a military budget of $224 billion by 2023, the second
largest in the world.
With all this money, China has been progressively modernizing its military capabilities and
facilities.
For example, it now has 1,700 combat aircraft, including J-11s and Su-30s, comparable to
the American F-16 or F-18.
In fact, China now has the largest air force in Asia.
But can you guess in which branch of the armed forces they have made the largest investment?
3, 2,1...
Yes, you guessed it, the Navy.
China's naval modernization began in the 1990s and has resulted in the Chinese navy becoming
the largest in the world, at least in numbers, with 351 ships in 2022, ahead of even the
US Navy, which had 294 ships that same year.
What’s more, not only does it have more ships, but their capabilities have also improved
substantially since the 1990s.
Among other features, thanks to the inclusion of ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise
missiles, along with other equipment.
And not only that, China also has a large fleet of submarines, destroyers and cruisers.
On top of that, it has even managed to establish itself as the second strongest power in terms
of having the most aircraft carriers: in 2012 and in 2019 it presented its first two, and
in 2022 it presented its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian.
A ship that already has capabilities such as the use of catapults and an electromagnetic
design used for launching jets.
But, do you think that with this large fleet China could defeat the US Navy?
Well, at the moment, it doesn't seem to be the case.
You see, it is true that China has a larger number of military vessels.
In fact, it is expected that by 2030 its navy will be even 50% larger than that of the United
States.
But the reality, VisualPolitik viewers, is that, although Uncle Sam has fewer ships,
theirs are bigger, more complete and capable.
For example, compared to the Chinese aircraft carriers, the American ones are much larger,
are nuclear-powered, which gives them greater autonomy, and can launch and operate a greater
number of aircraft, even more than 60.
Also, keep in mind that the United States has more militarily crucial vessels such as
aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers, which would give them a clear advantage in
a war scenario.
Even so, regardless of whether China is preparing to peak and start falling or not, what is
clear is that China has become a formidable military, and particularly naval, power.
There is no doubt about that.
But why so much investment in the navy?
Well, we are going to take a look at that right now.
(A GAME OF RISK)
Many have tried to discover what China's strategy would be for becoming a superpower capable
of standing up to the United States, and most have concluded that it all comes down to one
region: dominance of the South China Sea.
If China were to gain total control of this region, everything suggests that we could
already be talking about a superpower on the level of Uncle Sam.
You see, in this sea there are proven reserves of 11 billion barrels of oil, and even more
of natural gas.
But what is really important about this sea is the enormous geostrategic advantage it
would provide to the contender who manages to take it over completely.
And, in this case, the biggest contender is China.
China's naval reinforcement is explained by its ambition to become a global power with
the capacity to shape the international order, but also to secure and protect its maritime
trade routes, since 80% of Chinese commercial operations are carried out along this route.
For this reason, China has not hesitated to go beyond international law and establish
the famous "9-dash line" to try to reduce the risk of a cut in the supply of strategic
goods, such as oil, for example.
As you may recall, the "9-dash line" is the territory that China claims as sovereign,
despite the fact that it interferes with the exclusive economic zones of neighbors such
as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Well, within this line claimed by China are islands that its neighbors also claim, such
as those in the Spratly or Paracel Islands archipelagos, islands that China has taken
by force and which it has militarized and artificially expanded.
However, the main reason, or at least the most talked about in general, is not this,
but China's intention to invade the island of Formosa, that is, Taiwan, in the near future.
(China eyes "armed unification" with Taiwan by 2027: key academic.
– Asia Nikkei)
(Taiwan foreign minister warns of conflict with China in 2027.
– The Guardian)
This is surely the biggest point of tension between the United States and China.
Among other reasons because Taiwan serves as a barrier that prevents China from having
a free hand to expand into the Indo-Pacific.
This is precisely why China is currently investing so many resources in its navy.
Think about it, if China were to swoop in and take over the entire South China Sea,
including Taiwan, the United States would have less ability to act considering that
its nearest fighter jets are more than 1,000 km or 621 miles away, in Okinawa and Guam.
What’s more, China could easily deploy fighter jets on the Spratly and Paracel Islands from
its four air bases located at sea.
And, not only that, the Asian giant has established a strong radar system on the islands and also
has a larger number of missiles in the region.
However, do you really think it would be that easy to defeat the United States?
As you can imagine, this is rather unlikely.
Not only because the US has much more recent war experience and more advanced ships, but
also because, as many Chinese analysts point out, in order to succeed in such a conflict,
China would first have to solve some issues:
We are talking about details such as the supply of arms to Taiwan from the United States,
the lack of a plan in the face of the sanctions that would most certainly be imposed, the
current inability to take over Taiwan extremely quickly, and a long list of etceteras.
You see, VisualPolitik community, analysts are already predicting the arrival of China's
growth ceiling.
Yet far from ending China's aspirations to completely dominate the South China Sea and
go head to head with the United States as a superpower, these predictions may be reinforcing
them.
Xi has already achieved China having the largest international military naval fleet, now the
only question is: when will China show its full naval capability to the world?
Is it true that China really won’t catch up with the United States as the world's leading
power?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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