Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
My name is AJ.
And this is the Price Prediction Department.
For this week's pick,
considering all the news going on with the ETFs,
it's only right that we cover the alpha dog of crypto---
Bitcoin.
Before I get into it,
I want to thank each and every one of you for all your positive feedback
on last week's Cardano video.
It was one of the best price prediction videos we've done so far.
And it wouldn't be possible without you guys.
Also, thank you to Stake for sponsoring this video.
Let's get it!
Excuse me.
It tasted like Hot Pockets.
To keep it completely real with you,
I think now is the perfect time to do a Bitcoin price prediction
considering everything that's been going on in the news.
As most of you probably already know,
earlier this month, BlackRock filed for another Bitcoin spot ETF.
Since BlackRock jumped in,
other institutions such as Fidelity jumped on board as they see the opportunity.
And also when you pair the ETF momentum Bitcoin had
with the fact that the SEC is also calling out so many other projects
to be crypto assets securities,
it actually puts Bitcoin in a precarious situation
where it can take a very large market share of the crypto industry.
So when Michael Saylor is coming out and is saying, you know,
Bitcoin dominance could reach 80%,
when he says that, I think it's a little bit too high,
but if all the other cryptos that we know and love get pushed to the side
because they're technically securities,
we all know that Bitcoin no matter what is going to be regulated as a commodity.
So, with the other coins getting pushed aside
and with the institutional money coming in because of the ETF,
everyone's eyes got really big when we were talking about Bitcoin.
Unfortunately, just this past Friday,
the SEC told Nasdaq and the Chicago Board Options Exchange
that the ETF filings from BlackRock and Fidelity were not sufficiently clear and comprehensive.
Gary.
Inadequate?
You are inadequate!
This doesn't make up for this!
I hope you lose your job!
Sorry.
So, naturally, when the news came out that the ETFs were "inadequate,"
the crypto market at large was completely blindsided
and there was an insane flash crash on Friday morning
that resulted in roughly $90 million being liquidated.
On the flip side, the institutional interest,
they can resubmit their ETFs.
The SEC wants a "surveillance sharing agreement."
Basically, the SEC wants to control everything.
Big surprise.
It doesn't mean that the spot ETFs won't happen,
but right now it's not looking good.
And we all know that the spot ETFs are a milestone for institutional adoption.
And if you're buying Bitcoin now, that institutional money is your exit liquidity.
But like I touched on earlier,
regardless of the ETF situation at the moment,
we know that Bitcoin is being regulated as a commodity,
and since Bitcoin also has the first mover advantage on every other crypto project,
Bitcoin, I feel, will always be top dog.
There may be a point in time
where, like, Ethereum or something flips Bitcoin in market cap,
but until that happens,
Bitcoin sets the tone for the rest of the crypto market,
and generally all the other altcoins follow what Bitcoin does.
It's always been like that and it will be like that until further notice.
Regardless of the institutional timeline with Bitcoin,
I feel like Bitcoin always has a head start because it has the most visibility
amongst all the other crypto projects.
It's safe to say that in this point of time, Bitcoin is a household name.
That doesn't mean everyone's going to know the names of all the other altcoins,
but basically everyone knows what Bitcoin is.
I wouldn't suggest using them,
but I've seen Bitcoin ATMs all over America from my travels this year.
And when it comes to the rest of the world,
I've just seen more and more countries opening the door to Bitcoin
as time has gone on with my time in the crypto space.
To be honest, it is quite remarkable how far just Bitcoin has come
since I personally got into crypto four or five years ago.
According to Buy Bitcoin Worldwide,
there's 106 million Bitcoin owners,
200 million Bitcoin wallets,
400,000 daily Bitcoin users,
and 53 million Bitcoin traders.
These numbers will only go up over time
because the Bitcoin halving cycle programs Bitcoin to pump.
So you might ask,
"AJ, how does the halving program Bitcoin to pump?"
That's because every 210,000 blocks or roughly every four years,
the amount of Bitcoin mined and the block rewards for the miners
gets cut in half.
So, how does it work?
So, as of right now, 6.25 Bitcoin are mined from each block.
It roughly takes 10 minutes for each block to mine.
And there are about 144 blocks mined every day.
So, if you multiply 144 times 6.25,
that will give you 900 Bitcoin mined every day as of right now.
As of right now, the countdown clock shows
that there's 301 days until the next Bitcoin halving.
The next halving will commence at block 840,000,
which means that, as of right now, there are 43,407 blocks to go
into the next halving.
So remember when I said, right now, every block mints 6.25 Bitcoin?
Once this halving clock goes to zero and we get to block 840,000,
that 6.25 will get cut in half into 3.125.
And that's how many Bitcoin will be created by each block
and that will also serve as the block rewards for the miners.
And this is very important to the price prediction
because my job is to estimate how many Bitcoin will be in circulation
by the time we reach the top of the bull run,
which is projected to be September, November of 2025.
Before we really get into the price prediction, I want you to think about this.
As of right now, there's a little over 19,416,000 Bitcoin in circulation.
Bitcoin's max supply is 21 million.
That means, as of right now,
92% of Bitcoin's max supply is already in circulation.
Compared to a plethora of other projects, Bitcoin actually has amazing tokenomics.
So when you consider that there's only 8% of Bitcoin left to go into the supply
and you look at other altcoins that have, you know, 10 billion, 1 trillion in their supply
and only 50% of them, 60%, is in circulation,
you start to realize how valuable of a proposition it is to hold Bitcoin
considering how good the tokenomics are.
And that's not even the good part.
Out of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be in circulation,
it's estimated that 4 million of them are lost.
But then, at the end of March,
Timothy Peterson put out a tweet,
and he is estimating
that 6 million of the Bitcoin in circulation right now are lost.
Timothy is also projecting that another million will be lost
as new coins come in.
And he ends the tweet by saying
the 13 million circulating now is probably all you will have access to in your lifetime.
So when you consider the fact that four to six million Bitcoin are lost,
this is only a good thing for the Bitcoin you hold
because those Bitcoin won't be offloaded.
That value will always be locked into the market cap.
And his tweet also quotes Satoshi Nakamoto.
It says, "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.
Think of it as a donation to everyone."
It's definitely worth keeping the lost Bitcoin in mind
when you look at Bitcoin as a whole.
Alright. Now, finally, let's get in to the price prediction.
So, remember,
the price prediction equation is price equals market cap
divided by circulating supply.
First, let's figure out the circulating supply.
So, as of right now, Bitcoin is priced right around $30,000
with a supply a little over 19,416,000.
So, let's go back to the Bitcoin halving countdown clock,
and we will see that there's 43,407 blocks left to go until the Bitcoin halving.
So, the halving is projected to be April 26 or the morning of the 27th of 2024.
Like I said, there's 6.25 Bitcoin to every block.
So when we multiply that to the 43,407,
that means 271,294 Bitcoin will be added to the supply by the halving.
Once the halving happens,
there will only be 3.125 Bitcoin per block,
and that would spit us out to getting 450 new Bitcoin every day.
There are 563 days, trust me, I counted, between April 26, 2024 to November 1, 2025.
When you multiply 450 for the Bitcoin and 563 for the days,
you'll get 253,250 Bitcoin
between after the halving and November 1, 2025.
So, between right now and November 1, 2025,
there will be roughly 524,544 Bitcoin added to the supply.
If we add that to the current Bitcoin supply,
by November 1, 2025,
there will be exactly 19,940,687 Bitcoin in circulation.
And there is the denominator.
So, long story short,
between now and the projected all-time high,
a little less than 3% of Bitcoin's supply will be added in.
Some of you might be thinking, "When is Bitcoin going to reach its max supply?"
That won't happen till the year 2140.
And hopefully I'll still be alive, but probably not.
That was kind of sad.
So, what can we expect from the numerator?
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $68,624 on November 10, 2021.
At the time, its market cap was $1.26 trillion.
And at the time of its all-time high, its circulating supply was 18,866,818.
Here are the numbers from the previous all-time high.
And here are the numbers for right here right now.
As you can see, Bitcoin has lost a little less than 50% of its market cap
from the previous all-time high.
And by the time we get to 2025, the supply will be this.
So, basically, from the previous all-time high to the next one,
a little over a million new coins were added to the supply.
And if we take the market cap from the previous all-time high
and compare it to the heightened supply, Bitcoin would be worth $63,300.
So, the question really is, how high can the market cap go?
Like I said earlier in the video,
getting a spot ETF improved is a major milestone for institutional investments.
Once BlackRock or Fidelity or ARK Invest, whoever gets it approved first,
will open the floodgates for everyone else who wants exposure to a spot ETF.
This step is absolutely crucial to take Bitcoin to the next level.
Also, think about what Bitcoin dominance will be by the time we get to 2025.
And if a lot of the altcoins get unfairly regulated,
Bitcoin will obviously eat up a much larger bit of the market share.
So, really, how I see it,
and this is maybe the most important part of this entire video,
is that, so far, there have only been three other Bitcoin halvings---
in 2012, in 2016 and in 2020.
Just like clockwork,
a year and a half after every one of those halvings,
Bitcoin has peaked out and reached a new all-time high.
In trading, we like to call this a trend.
And until this trend, that has happened three times before, breaks,
I'm going to imagine that it's going to happen again.
And considering November 2025 is a year and a half after the next halving,
that's why we use that date as a benchmark on where the next halving should be.
With that being said, let's start running some numbers.
For Bitcoin to reach that elusive psychological level of $100,000 per coin,
it would require just around a $2 trillion market cap.
For Bitcoin to reach $1 million per coin, it would require about a $20 trillion market cap.
So, you can see how easy the math is with where our numbers are.
Everyone's favorite Bitcoin maxi Max Keiser thinks that the spot ETF doesn't even matter,
that it's unimportant for the US to have a Bitcoin spot ETF,
and he still thinks that a $220,000 Bitcoin is in play for the next bull run.
For Max to be correct,
Bitcoin's market cap would need to be $4.4 trillion.
To be honest, I think Max is overshooting and I think $100K is undershooting.
Just like the $5 Cardano from the last video,
the $100,000 Bitcoin for the next bull run for me is mandatory.
For Bitcoin to get to $120,000, it would require a $2.4 trillion market cap.
And for Bitcoin to get to $140,000, it would require a $2.8 trillion market cap.
So, when you ask me,
"Hey, AJ, what's Bitcoin going to be by the top of the next bull run?"
I'm going to say, "About $100,000, $140,000."
That sounds about right.
So, boom!
Another price prediction in the books.
What did you think of my Bitcoin price prediction?
Was I too conservative?
Was I too bullish?
Let me know in the comments.
For next week's price prediction department,
this is one that has been heavily requested,
especially to me.
I pushed it off.
I hummed and hawed,
but I think it's finally time.
Next week, we're doing Algorand.
Until then, my name is Ajwritescrypto and enjoy the rest of your weekend.