The U.S Air Force announced the next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile will begin
test flights by the end of calendar year2023.
U.S Air Force GBSD or Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent program manager Col. Jason Bartolomei
has stated that “We’re … already in critical design review for the subsystems,
and we’re months away from first flight" He said by 2023, "we’ll be at Vandenberg,
and we’ll be flying the first test flights of the new weapon system.”
He added the missile is already flying in a “modeling and simulation environment”
It was also emphasized that there’s no further margin to extend the Minuteman III system
without risking the credibility of the intercontinental ballistic missile force.
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes why the U.S military is moving to replace Minuteman
III ICBM with new Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) missile?
Let's get started.
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The nuclear deterrence of a country depends on the nuclear triad.
A nuclear triad is the capability to launch nukes from air , sea & land.
The U.S's nuclear triad includes B-2 and B-52 bombers with nuclear bombs & missiles, Ohio-class
submarines armed with Trident II D-5 missiles and Minuteman III ICBMs.
The Minuteman family of missiles has served as the backbone of the U.S. land-based nuclear
strategic force since 1962.
The Minuteman III began development in 1964 and entered service in 1970.
The number shrunk to around 450 by September 2017 and currently, there are about 400.
Over the years Minuteman III has been found to be extremely reliable and several upgrades
and life extension programs have kept it in working order.
But now it is reaching the end of its service life.
There has been considerable debate on whether to keep the Minuteman III in working order
through further life extension programs or to have an entirely new missile.
Gen. Timothy Ray, the commander of U.S Air Force Global Strike Command, told The Mitchell
Institute for Aerospace Studies in an interview,
“One of the key things with GBSD is an ability to sustain and operate into the future.
Every way we look at this, the most cost-effective way was not to life-extend the Minuteman III.
Life-extending Minuteman III was not a viable path.
There is an extensive price tag for trying to modernize and sustain the Minuteman III
because you will need to replace parts that weren’t meant to be in the ground that long,”
Ray further explained that propulsion systems, electronic circuitry and guidance technology
would all also need to be refined, sustained and upgraded in order to ensure the Minuteman
III could remain functional in a relevant way.
In August 2017, the U.S Air Force awarded 3-year development contracts to Boeing and
Northrop Grumman for $349 million and $329 million, respectively.
One of these companies was to be selected to produce a ground-based nuclear ICBM in 2020.
In 2029, the GBSD program is expected to enter service and remain active until 2075
On 25 July 2019, Boeing announced it would not place a bid for the program, citing Northrop's
recent acquisition of Orbital ATK (now Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems), Boeing's supplier
of solid rocket motors.
In December 2019, it was announced that Northrop Grumman won the competition to build the future
ICBM by default.
The U.S Air Force said that they will "proceed with an aggressive and effective sole-source
negotiation" in reference to Northrop's bid.
On 8 September 2020, Northrop Grumman was given a $13.3 billion contract to develop
the GBSD intercontinental ballistic missile.
Northrop is developing GBSD using digital engineering techniques and AI.
This enables the corporation to examine different configurations without actually
building them.
Northrop has reportedly studied 6 billion different configurations for the missile using
computer modeling.
Minuteman series of missile gained range with incremental versions with Minuteman III acknowledged
to have an operational range of 8,100 miles or 13,000 km though the exact range is classified.
GBSD will likely have a similar range.
Minuteman III was the first true MIRV or Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle capable missile.
It can carry a maximum of 3 warheads and these can be independently targeted against 3 different
locations.
GBSD missile will most likely have the ability to carry 12-15 MIRV.
Minuteman III carries W78 or W87 warhead.
The W87 is an improvement on W78, its design includes all modern safety features.
GBSD missile will be armed with the W87-1 which is an upgraded variant of W87.
W87-1 thermonuclear warhead has a yield of 335 kt to 350 kt of TNT.
For perspective, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, by comparison, had a yield of about
15 kt.
Minuteman III has been the cornerstone of American land-based nuclear deterrence for
around 5 decades.
It has been serving its purpose but a new system is needed so that nuclear deterrence
is not degraded in the coming days.
American rivals like Russia are also investing in a new generation of ICBM to keep its nuclear
forces up to date.
The RS-28 Sarmat is a Russian liquid-fueled, MIRV equipped ICBM under development by the
Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau since 2009.
It is intended to replace the R-36M ICBM which is known as Satan.
The U.S needs to keep its land-based deterrence-fighting fit and this the direction it is heading.
GBSD is expected to achieve initial operational capability in 2029 and full operational capability
with 400 missiles seven years later in 2036.
The missile is expected to serve till 2075 giving the U.S a reliable land-based nuclear
deterrence.