Hey there, I'm meteorologist Ryan Shop
Tell with a tropical weather up.
It is currently June 18th, 2023,
the 1st update of the season.
We're watching Invest 92 L Reme,
Invest is short for Investigative Area and
each invest is given a number from 90 to 99.
This one's 92 and L tells us
it's in the Atlantic Ocean.
The Hurricane Center says a high
chance at developing into Tropil
Storm Brett in the coming day,
so depending on when you watch ,
this may have already formed.
The Tropical Storm,
Brett now based on infrared ima,
satellite imagery and presentat.
It looks pretty good, right?
You have a weak area of low pressure,
No defined circulation yet,
but around this area of low pressure,
thunderstorms are wrapping around it,
starting to really form an organized sensor.
And you can see a lot of action on that.
North and northwestern side,
not so much thunderstorms
on that southeastern side,
some dry air trying to filter i.
Which is keeping it relatively
weak at this point in time.
Windsor at 30 miles an hour as
of the 1:00 PM Sunday update,
moving W at 18 miles an hour ana
central pressure down to 1010 millibar.
So based on what forecast guidance is
telling us through Friday and next weekend,
it depends, right?
So it depends on what you look ,
but the consensus of models between now
and Friday and Saturday of next weekend.
Moving towards the Caribbean Se,
a lot of them after that have tm
going farther N to taking that t
and northerly turn towards the t
Atlantic Bermuda and then a lot of them
have it going due West towards Hispaniola,
towards Puerto Rico and towards
Jamaica and the Northern Caribbn
Sea in the next 7 to 10 days.
Watch where it's going into.
This is what forecasters
look at all the time.
Sea surface temperatures and the anomalies.
So these are the anomalies.
It should say anomaly at
the top of the banner,
but notice it's warmer than avee
in this part of the Caribbean Sa
and the western Atlantic Ocean.
So that's fuel for tropical storms and
potentially hurricanes as they enter a
very conducive and favorable environment.
So going forward with the spaghi
plot and the steering currents d
of superimposed on each other through
Wednesday through Thursday and Friday,
we're going to watch this Ridge
of high pressure.
Fluctuate and depending on two things,
words, movement and where it tr.
And also the strength of it will tell
us more about where exactly it .
Now,
based on this forecast model,
it has it over Cuba,
relatively weak southern Miami,
towards the Bahamas.
And if this were to play out and verify,
I would say based on this partir
track and movement of this Ridg,
it would probably help it move farther
W towards Puerto Rico and Hispaa
in the seven to 10 day outlook.
And based on what forecast
guidance is telling us,
this is one of many the European model.
You can see it kind of slowly
meanders through the Luster and Tilly
islands by about Thursday and Friday,
maybe becoming a tropical storm if not.
Pretty a moderate tropical storm
by that time and heavy rain liky
Thursday and Friday for Saint La
and then in the long range Frid,
Saturday and Sunday moving
towards the Dominican Republic d
Hispaniola by next weekend.
So that's one forecast model.
We'll see if that materializes, but again,
after 7 to 10 days forecast mod,
the accuracy really goes down.
And if it were to be named,
Brett is the next name on the l.
Cindy's after that Don,
Emily, Franklin and Gerp.
And all the way through Sean,
Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
For the 2023 list,
the forecast cost for 12 to
17 named storms this season.
That's about average.
And last year we hit average at
14 named storms.
8 hurricanes and of those eight,
two are major category three or stronger.
What's influencing the weather
and the climate and the hurricae
landscape this year is El Nino.
The strengthening El Nino patten
with that does it creates more d
shear which lessens the amount
of tropical storms we typically
see in one given season,
which by the way last year was ,
back in 2020 record number of ss
30 and then back in 2015 and 2014 below
average season in addition to that 2009.
All right, if you have any questions,
feel free to comment down below or to
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