questions i'm regularly asked especially in relation to property in the property market is
is now a good time to get into the property market and the answer that i always give is that that's
the wrong question the right question is should i buy a house should i buy shares in other words
whether you should enter a market or not is the question and that will depend on your
circumstances not when because predicting the market is impossible and the only thing that
you could say about making predictions about the market is if you must predict predict often
and if you think about that you'll understand what i mean at the weekend however in various
times there's an article there by david mack williams basically telling people particularly
young people particularly millennials to stay away from the property market it holds no value
the hypothesis of the article is basically the market is at its peak of dysfunction and
young people or anybody intending or thinking about going into the market should basically
down tools and go on strike and just to and obviously the knock-on effect down the line would
be to drive prices down and make the market more amenable and more attractive and provide value
however there's a couple of things in mack williams article that are worth having a look at
if you take a look there it says millennials single buyers and other aspiring
homeowners your euro is being debased because there are too many buyers chasing
too little supply and in all likelihood the quality of much of what is on display
isn't that great supply has been affected by bans on viewing meaning that second-hand property on
the market is most likely probate housing which is rarely suited to the needs of young buyers
you'll see on the screen there that i've actually highlighted that in yellow that particular
sentence firstly supply has been affected by bands on viewing a ban on viewing properties
does not affect supply that is self-evident and if you think about it at all you recognize
that's the the truth or situation a ban on viewing houses doesn't affect the supply of them
it says then goes on to say in the second part of that sentence meaning that second-hand property on
the market is most likely probate housing that's not true that is not true and it goes on then
in this sentence to say that which is rarely suited to the needs of young buyers
that's not so either because you know somebody passes away it's a two bed apartment or it's
a bungalow in the country or it's a tree bed semi or it's in dublin or it's outside dublin
the owner passes away and these things happen and then it becomes a probate sale the house doesn't
know that it's a probate property it doesn't know that it's probate housing so the assertion that
probate housing rarely suits the needs of young buyers is not true it's nonsense quite frankly
additionally danny says with a cope with ban on construction there are no new developments
therefore most of what is on the market is second or third rate and far too expensive
it may be too expensive it's second in second certainly not second or third rate
there is a covert ban on construction uh there are new developments but
obviously construction has grown to a halt or has certainly slowed down although there is
indications that there is a construction going on around the place outside of dublin especially
in breach of the regulations but that's a different issue like williams goes on to say
that such a dysfunctional market creates panic buying where the fact of raising prices panics
people into buying because they're understandably unnerved thinking that if they don't buy something
now they'll buy you pay even more next year and the year after that he goes on to say
correctly that a one-way ticket to bad decisions ensues where one person's poor decision-making
poor decision propels the next person to jump in compounding the poor decision-making such is the
nature of group psychology the only winners here are the sellers of second-rate properties that's
an interesting and important point the nature of group psychology the nature of group psychology
is something that will lead to a dysfunctional market and it's precisely group psychology that
mike williams is advancing here as an argument and as a piece of advice for millennials and anybody
thinking about entering into the market the very thing that he rails against
group psychology and group think he's the very thing that he is actually encouraging
in his article because he's saying stay away from the market it holds no value
there's a number of assertions there's a number of statements in his article
which are not grounded in any evidence
added data for example probate housing is rarely suited to the needs of young buyers
for example meaning that second-hand property on the market is most likely probate housing
for example saying that what is on the market is second or third rate
far too expensive none of those things are true apart from perhaps that is too expensive
but who says what's too expensive who says what's good value and not good value what
determines prices is obviously a willing buyer and a willing seller and if there isn't willing buyers
at a particular price then prices will fall it's as simple as that but the notion that somehow you
can encourage a group of people to stay away from the market and they are somehow going to teach
the suppliers of houses and so on a lesson prices will will fall and they'll all pile in then all
the potential buyers will pile in and get good value housing i think is a facile argument and
i think this argument or this article is flawed fundamentally flawed
there's comments plenty of comments after the article in there it's times it's more to read and
if you're thinking about buying or thinking about selling or anything else in the property market
it is worth a read but um you know i'm giving you my view on it i think he's made a lot of wild
assertions and i think david mcwilliams is good at getting attention he's good at promoting himself
and his column in the irish times and so on and is good at coming out with very simple appealing
messages solutions to complex problems but it's not always the best way to operate
what i was going to say there's a lot of comments in the at the end of the article there's times
i wonder is from a guy who didn't take that advice who actually is bought a particular apartment
and he bought it a year ago or two years ago and he's actually delighted with himself his property
is going to be worth more than five years or ten years time than he paid for it and he's actually
paying less by way of a mortgage than he would be uh in rent and that's what he's actually doing
and he's living in dublin they bought a cheap apartment in dublin now when i say cheap apartment
i don't know it's 250 grand or whatever it's a one bed apartment or two bed apartment or whatever it
is the point is that you don't buy the market an individual young person young couple or even
middle-aged or whoever they're not buying the market they're buying an individual property
and that guy in the comments who disagrees with mike williams
i think he's right because you as an individual if you follow this advice you would be in danger
of making a mistake because you're buying a house in carrick and shannon or longford or wherever
you won't have a difficulty in buying a house that is going to provide good value in the long run and
maybe even good value within three to five years or whatever so i think this article is interesting
it's worth having a look at it's worth reading but i think anybody who's predicting the market
and anybody who's putting forward simple solutions to complex problems
are on weak ground quite frankly anyway hope you found the video useful
uh you might think that it might give you some food for thought and obviously you need to make
up your own mind i mean don't listen just to me don't listen just to make williams but any
economist telling you how the market is going to go or what you should be doing etc i'd be treating
it with a grain of salt and indeed any solicitor and on the accountant etc make up your own mind
gather the evidence and decide whether you want to buy a particular property or not whether it's
good value for you or not that'll depend on your circumstances and remember you're not buying the
markers you're buying a property anyway i hope you liked the video oh you might give it a thumbs up