>>> It is election eve as we
prepare for one of the more
consequential midterm elections
in our lifetime.
IN A LOT OF WAYS, THE FUTURE
COURSE OF OUR STRUGGLING
DEMOCRACY. HERE IS WHERE WE
STAND.
JUST HOURS AWAY FROM THE FIRST
POLLS OPENING TOMORROW MORNING.
DEMOCRATS CONTROL THE SENATE
RIGHT NOW WITH THE UPPER
CHAMBER EVENLY DIVIDED 50/50
WITH HARRIS BEING THE TIE-
BREAKING VOTE.
RIGHT NOW, DEMOCRATS HOLD A
VERY SLIM MAJORITY.
REPUBLICANS NEED JUST ONE SEAT
TO WIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE
AND FIVE SEATS TO WIN CONTROL
OF THE HOUSE.
BARACK OBAMA LOST 63 HOUSE
SEATS IN HIS FIRST TERM AS
PRESIDENT.
DEMOCRATS ARE BRACING FOR A
TOUGH NIGHT, THE QUESTION IS,
HOW TOUGH?
THERE COULD BE PLENTY OF
SURPRISES IN STORE.
THERE REALLY ARE BIG, COMPETING
FACTORS IN PLACE.
IF YOU ARE ON TEAM
FUNDAMENTALS, WHICH POINTS TO A
HUGE NIGHT FOR REPUBLICANS,
THEN THAT IS WHY YOU THINK
REPUBLICANS WILL DO A QUEEN
SWEET.
IF YOU ARE ON TEAM
POLARIZATION, YOU THINK THAT
DEMOCRATS COULD HAVE A CHANCE.
YOU CAN SEE EVIDENCE THAT THE
NIGHT COULD PLAY OUT WITH THE
WIND BLOWING IN EITHER A
FUNDAMENTAL DIRECTION OR
TOWARDS TEAM POLARIZATION.
LET'S START WITH FUNDAMENTALS
HERE.
THIS IS WHY SO MANY FOLKS THINK
THAT HEY, IN A PRE-TRUMP
ENVIRONMENT, MOST FOLKS WOULD
SAY REPUBLICAN WIN. THIS IS THE BIGGEST GAP WE HAVE
THIS IS THE BIGGEST GAP WE HAVE
RECORDED SINCE 1992.
JUST WORTH NOTING, BOTH OF THEM
HAD BIG LOSSES.
BY THE WAY, HIS APPROVAL RATING
WITH INDEPENDENCE IS THE LOWEST
EVER RECORDED.
SPEAKING OF FUNDAMENTALS, WHAT
KIND OF MESSAGE DO YOU WANT TO
SEND TO THE PRESIDENT?
WHAT SHOULD HE TAKE AWAY FROM
THIS?
THEY WOULD LOVE TO SEE A GREAT
DEAL OF CHANGE AFTER THE
MIDTERMS.
THAT'S A BIG DEAL.
BUT THESE TOGETHER, YOU HAVE
TWO THIRDS OF AMERICANS THAT
ARE HOPING THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN
WILL MAKE QUITE A BIT OF CHANGE
BASED ON THESE MIDTERMS.
THAT'S THE HIGHEST NUMBER WE
HAVE RECORDED SINCE 1992.
THEN LOOK AT THIS NUMBER. THE TOP ISSUE ON THE MINDS OF
THE TOP ISSUE ON THE MINDS OF
VOTERS IS THE ECONOMY.
ONLY TIME THAT NUMBER WAS
HIGHER SINCE I HAVE BEEN HERE
IS 2010.
ALL OF THESE NUMBERS SPELL
MAJOR TROUBLE FOR THE
DEMOCRATS.
IF THIS IS AN ELECTION ABOUT
FUNDAMENTALS, THIS IS WHY SOME
PEOPLE THINK REPUBLICANS COULD WIN.
30 TO 40 SEATS, PICK UP A FEW
SENATE SEATS.
BUT WHY DO DEMOCRATS THINK THEY
HAVE A CHANCE TO AT LEAST MAKE
THIS A RACE?
NUMBER ONE, THEY HAVE PULLED
EVEN IN INTEREST ON THE
SELECTION.
THEY CAME HOME LATE, BUT THEY
CAME HOME.
HERE IS ANOTHER NUMBER.
THE CONGRESSIONAL PREFERENCE
AMONG LIKELY VOTERS, DEMOCRATS ACTUALLY HAVE A ONE POINT LEAD
ACTUALLY HAVE A ONE POINT LEAD
IN OUR POLL.
A LITTLE BIT OF AN INCH AND
COME BACK HERE IN THE FINAL
WEEKEND.
THEN LOOK AT THIS.
WHAT IS YOUR BIGGEST CONCERN
FOR THE MIDTERMS?
THAT THE REPUBLICANS TAKE
CONTROL AND THEY MAKE THE WRONG
KIND OF CHANGE?
THE FACT IS, THIS IS WHAT GIVES
DEMOCRATS A FIGHTING CHANCE. REPUBLICANS, THE ONE MISTAKE
REPUBLICANS, THE ONE MISTAKE
THEY HAVE MADE THIS CYCLE, THIS
PARTY DIDN'T CLAIM THEY WERE
ANY DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN IN 2020.
DEMOCRATS CLAIM THEY WERE
DIFFERENT FROM 2016 TO 2018.
REPUBLICANS CLAIM THEY WERE
DIFFERENT BETWEEN 2008 AND 2010.
NOT THIS VERSION OF THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY.
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN
STANDING OUT THERE A LITTLE
BIT.
THEN THERE IS THIS.
PRESIDENT BIDEN IS OBVIOUSLY
NOT POPULAR.
BUT LOOK WHO HAS BEEN THE
CLOSING MESSENGER FOR THE
REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST 48
HOURS?
PRESIDENT TRUMP.
AND HE IS NOT POPULAR AT ALL.
HE IS 20 POINTS UNDERWATER.
DOES DONALD TRUMP PROVIDE A
TURNOUT BOOST FOR THE
DEMOCRATS?
JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SO LET'S GO TO THE CAMPAIGN
TRAIL.
WE ARE GOING TO GO TO A COUPLE