The story about the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines looks like a
political thriller. Several teams of investigators from various countries
are digging into the crime at the same time. Officials are keeping silent.
Intelligence findings are secret after all. If things go well, they will remain so.
But
the press is flooded with all kinds of speculation about who might have destroyed the pipelines.
Chapter 1: A geopolitical thriller
Navy ships, or a pleasure yacht?
Russian military mini-submarine or Ukrainian divers?
A front tourism agency in Poland?
A false-flag operation?
All these theories raise a lot of questions about the true motive of the crime.
And the most crucial and mysterious: who is really behind this operation?
Let’s take a look at who could benefit from the Nord Stream attack.
Actually, only losers can come out of this. The Russians would cut off their
own arm. The Ukrainians should really worry about angering their European allies. And,
of course, the same goes for the US. To carry out such an action as intelligence operations,
of course, cannot have a positive impact on the political relationship with each other.
Chapter 2: A controversial project Nord Stream was a symbol of the German government faith
in the reliability of Russian energy supplies.The pipeline was not just the
longest underwater pipeline in the world. It was the most expensive German-Russian
infrastructure project. And one of the world’s most controversial energy projects.
It was heavily criticized by the US and Eastern European countries,
especially Poland and the Baltic states. They warned the pipeline would strengthen Russia’s
influence in Europe — and ultimately isolate Ukraine, making it even more vulnerable.
Even after Russia annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and started the war in Donbass,
in eastern Ukraine, Germany held on to the project.
It is foremost an economic project and therefore we consider it correct. The
companies involved have committed to it and I think that it should be possible
to complete Nord Stream 2 despite the sanctions While Angela Merkel saw it as a ‘purely economic
project,’ for Ukraine the Nord Stream pipeline has long been a project of power.
I believe that this is a weapon. I think that not noticing that this is a dangerous weapon is not
only for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe. I think it is to ignore that it is a weapon.
I think it is wrong to talk about Nord Stream 2 as an economy. Ukraine will definitely not do it.
Nord Stream 1 used to carry almost 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from
Russia. The certification of Nord Stream 2, of the same capacity, was in preparation.
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline was very profitable for gas supplies, especially for the German economy,
because it was linked to low tariffs, gas prices that were slightly lower than on
the world market. But it was paid for with long-term dependency and geostrategic risks,
which are becoming reality today. Chapter 3: The Attack
February 24, 2022
The full-scale war in Ukraine changed everything.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the implementation of sanctions,
Moscow began cutting gas supplies to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
At the end of August 2022, they completely stopped.
But there was still gas in the pipes. At 2 a.m. on September 26th, a seismic
station on the Danish Island of Bornholm recorded an underground strike. The perpetrators of the
attack seemingly managed to attach explosives to the pipes. There were four explosions in total,
which ripped holes in the pipes. At least in one place it seems that the pipe was torn
open over a total length of several meters, and all this at a depth of almost 80 meters.
Two days later, the Swedish Coast Guard published this video recorded north of Bornholm.
Tons of gas rising from the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
Investigators said from the very beginning: to blast the Nord Stream pipes at a depth of
80 meters, you need special equipment and qualified specialists. They assume
only a state structure could have organized this kind of attack.
Chapter 4: A Russian footprint? Danish expert Jacob Karlsboo
specializes in defense and security issues. He recalls that the sabotage took place at
almost the same time as the launch of a Danish-Polish pipeline, which transports
natural gas from Norway to Poland via Denmark. And that gave Karlsboo room for new assumptions.
From my analysis, it always looked as though both the timing and the placement
of these explosions were hardly a coincidence. The timing that had happened at the same time
as the Baltic pipe was being inaugurated — it was not a coincidence. It was meant to
send a signal that presumably Russia would be capable of doing these kind of actions.
In the spring, Scandinavian journalists uncovered new details:
Four days before the explosions,
a search-and-rescue vessel of the Russian Baltic Navy had been in the area of the
accident – with a mini-submarine capable of diving to a depth of 1,000 meters.
We know that Russian ships that were capable of launching this operation
were in this exact area. They'd been photographed by the Danish Navy. And
these are ships that are capable of doing a submarine operation.
But why exactly could Russia be interested in the destruction of its own pipeline?
I have said from the beginning that Russia has the greatest interest in this pipeline no longer
being in operation. Russia turned off the gas tap itself, and is facing the threat of contractual
fines for this. There was also no conclusive explanation why Russia simply turned off the
gas tap in order to escape these contractual fines. Simply to make it clear that we are in a
risk situation here and can no longer guarantee another supply. And that would be a motivation
that is very big. From my point of view. Chapter 5: An American footprint?
In early February, the veteran American journalist Seymour Hersh caused a furor
with an article published on his personal blog.
We must clarify here that Hersh has been a frequent guest on the
Kremlin's RT channel since 2014 with his anti-American rhetoric.
Hersh has accused the U.S. government and CIA of undermining the pipelines,
citing just one anonymous source. The White House has rejected his
post as “complete fiction”. And open-source intelligence researchers have poked numerous
holes in Hersh’s theory. But, of course, it was immediately picked up in Moscow.
The release of such materials demonstrates once
again the need for an open international investigation.
After the attack last September, the Kremlin started exploiting the
Nord Stream sabotage for its propaganda war, aiming to stir up sentiments within
the EU against Western arms supplies that Ukraine needs to defend against Russia.
"Sanctions were not enough for the Anglo-Saxons:
they moved on to sabotage. It is clear to everyone who benefits from this."
Chapter 6: A Ukrainian footprint?
Lastly, this theory:
Dutch intelligence services advised German investigators to check out the
sailing yacht “Andromeda” in the city of Rostock.
They now assume that six Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian persons — five men
and one woman — allegedly rented the boat via a front company in Poland.
They reportedly used forged passports for the operation. After that, they
are thought to have loaded it with munitions, taken it out to the open
sea, placed the explosives on the pipes, and subsequently blew it up.
But how? Using a remote control? We don’t know it for sure. But it’s
clear that only professionals could do that at a depth of 80 meters.
According to the Washington Post, the attacker could have direct ties to the Ukrainian military.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied any involvement in the attack.
Nothing of the sort has been done by Ukraine. I would never act that way.
Poland also denies any involvement in the sabotage. And Polish prosecutors
rejected a journalistic report that the team that
blew up the pipelines may have used Poland as an operating base.
What about a false-flag operation? Chapter 7: A false-flag operation?
There is something else that raises questions.
German investigators have identified the traces of the explosives on the
Andromeda. But why weren't the traces on the yacht fully cleaned? Why such an
amateur mistake? Was it done intentionally to throw the investigators off the scent?
Indeed, U.S. and German intelligence and officials aren’t discounting this theory.
Ukrainian authorities have named Russia as a possible sponsor.
One of the women who is said to have owned the travel agency in
Warsaw has both Ukrainian and Russian passports. German journalists found
out that she is currently in Russia and is believed to have pro-Russian stances.
Chapter 8: The market paradox
It is difficult to verify the plausibility of all the theories,
says energy expert Heiko Lohmann. But he points out a paradox:
Whoever was behind the attack, it has had a surprising effect on the market.
The amusing thing is that for the European and German gas market the blowing up of the
Nord Stream pipelines, even before the supply was stopped, was very positive. If you look