Eventually there will come the time when Tesla produce their own LFP cell.
Yes, the Chinese are making an absolute ton of them, and expanding rapidly, I think this
is actually starting to take on quite an exponential curve, especially as supply chains open up
more, and the actual bandwidth of these resources increases, along with improvements in technology,
efficiency, and applications.
TESLA LFP Teslas own in-house LFP cell can just be for
energy, in a form factor designed entirely for production speed.
The cost will be low enough anyway, it will be all about scaling to the extreme.
Thermal management wont be a big deal, and the form size will be more or less irrelevant
as it doesn't have to fit within the the structure of a car.
The energy density is of less importance too, as it will be stationary.
I have no idea what form factor Tesla are thinking.
The casing doesn't need to be thick enough for a car structure either.
It will all be about how fast Tesla can make the actual jelly roll, I am guessing that
will be the bottleneck in production, then the casing itself can be used to contain as
much of the jelly roll as possible.
They would still be tabless design, as hat will help with the production speed, as having
to make tabs slows down production speed dramatically.
I would say almost everything will be compromised, for lack of better word around production
speed.
Tesla have to scale to the extreme.
3 TWh/YR We need 300 TWh asap.
If you recall on Battery Day, Elon said Tesla aim to reach 3 TWh/yr by the end of the decade.
Well at that rate it would take one century to make enough cells for that target.
Do we have 100 years to complete this mission?
Well by then we would already need to start replacing the batteries, I don't think that
is a fast enough speed to be sustainable.
Sure they will be recycled, but they still need to be manufactured again.
And it's starting to feel like the other battery manufacturers may even surpass that level
by the end of the decade.
I think this is meant to happen more like the next few decades, maybe 2040 to 2050 we
should be getting close.
But no other manufacturer is going to contribute close to what Tesla is, these cells may be
produced at something like 20 times the traditional speed.
Although Tesla may help other battery manufacturers with dry battery electrode processes, so they
can expand too.
But either way.
And that's what its going to come down to then.
There will be the mining, refining and then the jelly roll.
Then it will all be deployed into energy storage.
We need to see rates faster than 3 TWh/yr.
Although that figure also included cells for vehicles too.
SIMPLE Remember though that LFP is a more simple
production process too, compared nickel, again due to the thermal issues that nickel cells
cause.
The lithium too, it needs to be a higher grade for nickel, we need lithum hydroxide, LFP
can use technical grade lithium.
It's lower cost and faster to refine.
On the other hand we may have seen advances in sodium-ion cells as well.
Sodium is going to be far more abundant than lithium.
It is however a lot more reactive, if you can remember back in science class and watching
what happens when you just place it in water.
I think for this reason we will not see sodium in cells for vehicles, as perhaps it may be
more dangerous in an accident.
However, it might be a totally different case for energy storage.
Remember its all about production speed for energy cells, in every way, as we dont have
to be so concerned with the cells getting damaged, or size to fit in a car, or density
for traveling.
So even if sodium ends up being 20% less energy dense, it works if you can make twice as many.
If lithium processing is perhaps the bottleneck with more cells.
But once Tesla have perfected their dry electrode processes anything is possible.
I liken Tesla batteries to a money printing machine, as every cell can be allocated somewhere
at great profit.
But when they sort this process out, it gets about 10 times faster, and that's now.
Who knows what other break throughs will come through after that again.
This LFP cell will be the most produced cell in the world.
DEGRADATION These energy LFP cells will have low energy
density, they wont contain any silicon.
Silicon is great for improving energy density, but it still expands, and eventually cracks,
thus reducing the longevity of the anode.
It will simply degrade that much faster.
It also probably makes the production process more complex.
Like I keep saying, this cell will be all about speed.
These are going to be very simple cells.
Just iron phosphate cathodes and graphite anodes.
I would say that the cathode should be easier than nickel too, as despite iron cells being
heavier, iron is less dense than nickel, so possibly that makes it easier too.
But as these iron phosphate cells are going to be so basic, then that would also mean
that they won't degrade as fast.
And degradation is going to be important.
Sure we hear LFP batteries probably last about 2 million miles in car, before they lose perhaps
25% of their charge.
That is fantastic.
The car will likely have been worn out before the battery.
However with energy storage we want them to last as long as possible.
We might look at charging cycles of around 10,000 perhaps within time.
At a guess too, the larger the cell, then the more charging cycles it could handle,
due to it having a larger capacity.
FORM SIZE I really don't know how large a form factor
you could actually have with a tabless LFP where size and energy density were not as
important.
I know there are some serious battery experts that listen to me, if any of you can comment
on your theories as to just how large a battery LFP could be then please let me know.
Although Elon said it would be a different form factor from the 4680, it was somewhat
ambiguous as to whether it would still be cylindrical or not.
I doubt it would be prismatic.
I think Elon was just talking about form factor size.
I think it would still like be cylindrical, as that is what is the fastest on the production
line.
However, if they are that big, then the jelly roll might be the bottleneck on the production
line.
So who can say.
RECYCLE LFP doesn't really get recycled these days,
I guess at least not the Chinese ones, as the minerals are already so cheap and abundant,
its cheaper to make them from scratch.
However, if we are consuming this many cells, it is morally wrong for them to end up landfills.
Elon has at least said that they will recycle LFP.
But the Chinese LFP cells do concern me in this regard.
Hopefully they will do what is right.
As there are going to be so many of them.
MASTER PLAN 3 I mean what if this is what Elon announces
for Master Plan part 3, what if it is Tesla's new LFP battery that is required for energy.
The plan is to scale to the extreme.
Sure 4680s sure are something, but not close to what is necessary for 300 TWh.
I would expect Elon to mention some sort of path on how they plan to scale this big.
ENERGY Then Teslas energy business will really start
to crank.
Although I am still not sure about solar.
That also requires some scaling to the extreme too, and we have heard very little about it.
Perhaps Tesla are working on a revolutionary new solar panel, that will be much lower cost,
have a long lifetime, and be able to manufacturer a lot faster.
I wouldn't expect it to be much more efficient though.
Solar also concerns me in regards to recycling, and landfills.
SUMMARY I know there are a lot of open theories here,
I try to have the most holistic Tesla channel as possible, to cover as many areas as possible,
as there are so many layers when it comes to Tesla.
And I am admittedly throwing out quite a few ideas and perhaps speculating somewhat.
But I hope it is at least thought provoking for you.
And as there is so much, I can't really be expected to know it all.
But I make videos like these sometimes to really get ideas back from all of you in the
community too.
I then read all your comments, and eventually fill in the blanks, and report back to you
from what I have taken on from your areas of expertise too, until we have evolved enough
to really get a good idea of the future of this company.
Which is really what we are trying to do here, predict the future, which is what investing
is.