Up next for us this evening.
Birth rates around the country continue
to decline and that is also beig
reflected here in Western New Y.
The Buffalo News was first to rt
on this earlier in the week data from
the state health department shog
that there were 1100 fewer babies born
in the 8 counties of Western New York
in 2020 compared to a decade be.
That's despite the fact that we saw an
actual increase in total popula,
thanks in large part to immigras
coming here.
Erie County's fertility rate
is below the state.
Average joining us live now
with more is Leslie Reynolds,
a research support specialist with Cornell
University who has been looking into this.
Really appreciate you taking soe
time for us and we hear this you
know number about the birth rat.
Does the data that you've compid
kind of match up with the trends
statewide and nationwide or is Western
New York kind of lagging behind here?
No, this fits pretty well within
what we've seen across the state
and also throughout the nation .
First I want to say thank you for having me.
Also skipped right into the data right there,
but for the most part of the Ere
County and Western New York is about,
I wouldn't say in the middle of the pack,
but slightly below the state average,
but certainly not the lowest or the highest.
Yeah, despite the declining birth rate,
I mentioned there that Erie
County actually saw a population
increase during the last census,
something that was widely celebrated here.
But that really has to do with
right immigrants and and a lot
of refugees resettling here.
It's not that we are are havinge
babies here that it's the opposite of that,
right. That's what it looks lik.
I for this particular interview,
I dug into Erie.
Erie Counties trends for the lat
1020 years depending on the ared
it really does look like with tt
population increase that international
migration was the key cause.
Domestic migration.
There was still some losses due to domestic
migration and net migration ove,
even in years when there was rey
high international migration,
net migration was negative.
So there were more people
moving out than moving in.
So I think that's really where
that came from and certainly.
Natural increase was negative
in a lot of those years,
so that's births minus deaths.
So there were more deaths
than births here and there.
It fluctuated around 0 for the last 20 years,
but the key part there was
international migration.
When we look at why the
birth rate is going down,
I know one of the reasons you
found is that many women are eir
getting married later in life,
then happened in decades past,
or maybe deciding to just have children
later in life even if they married earlier.
How does that kind of factor into the
numbers as we're seeing them no?
Yes, fertility trends are
really difficult to pinpoint,
so I didn't look specifically
at factors that drive.
These decreases, though,
there's a a large body of litere
on more nuanced findings about .
We've mostly looked at trends for this brief,
but with the decline, it's often
following a larger societal cha.
So the need to have dual income households,
the movement of women into worko
the workforce in the past centu.
So that can cause a lot of chans
in what we expect from women
and families and partners while
they're creating their family ad
how long we expect people to wo.
So there are a lot of obstacles
that are becoming more in the
forefront of people's family li.
So there's kind of a overall
decline across the nation.
Yeah. And nationally, we've certainly,
as this has become a topic,
not just in the United States.
I mean, there are some countries
where the birth rate is so low,
there are kind of serious worris
about what that's going to do to their,
their economies.
But there are also instances in which women
are just having fewer children, right.
It's not so much that they're dg
it at what point in their life,
it's just maybe instead of
having 2.5 as it used to be,
now it's like 1.5 or whatever, right?
Yes, even I think it was in.
2020 it was or 20/19 it was 1.6,
the total fertility rate in New York,
and in 20/21 it was 1.55.
So we're inching a little bit cr
to the one child per woman rather than
the two child norm which has ben
really salient in the last few decades.
But there are other countries
such as Japan and other.
Areas, I believe South Korea
as well and fertility trends
are very difficult to change.
I mean there are a lot of programs that
go into trying to promote child rearing,
childbearing,
but with economic needs and
different factors to consider,
it's difficult to get people
to have more children.
Yeah, speaking specifically
about South Korea, I've read soe
interesting articles about all e
programs that they're doing to y
to change that trend because bee
they're really worried about it,
bigger picture than for people o
are watching this segment and and who
are wondering what what big pice
do we make of this and and do you see
the trend changing at all or iss
just sort of the new norm and we have
to figure out a way to deal wit?
Well, I think the last few
years are obviously land bark
for quite a few reasons, so.
It is also possible with data
quality and such like the census
could have been slightly off,
there could have been under counts and
even with 2010 census there may have been
under counts in certain populat.
So we have to compare numbers with caution,
but also with 2020.
I think at 2020 and 2021 these l
be I think lower fertility rates than
we can expect in the next few y.
But there's.
Kind of always been and always
will be a natural fluctuation up
and down according with differet
events that are happening.
But I think people have been
especially weary of having chiln
in times when they're economicay
struggling and they need to meet
their daytoday needs first befoe
investing and having a family.
So I can see that the trend could rebound,
but how much it will is.
Yet to be seen and very difficult to predict.
Yeah, absolutely. Leslie Reynol,
a research support specialist
with Cornell University,
thanks so much for taking some
time for us. We appreciate it.
Thanks for having me. Yeah.