>> Steve: With just a few days left before E-day, speculation about who's up and who's down is
inevitable.
Erin Kelly is our go-to for insight or where things are headed.
She is CEO of advanced symbolics Inc. and she joins us now from the nation's capital for word on
what the artificial intelligence known as polly is saying.
Are you prepared to make a call right now?
>> Erin: Yes, polly is prepared to make a call after this weekend.
There is no doubt this shall going to be a PC majority government.
>> Steve: How do you know?
>> Erin: Everything is there.
Polly is saying that the lowest seat count that as of right now that Doug Ford -- that the PCs
would get is 67 seats.
And as high as 84 seats, 85 seats and the trend is toward the PCs.
So throughout this weekend, we've seen people switching their vote where they were
undecided.
And we still have 28 ridings that are too close to call.
However, the PCs are leading and comfortably leading in enough seats that we can say
that they will get a majority government.
>> Steve: We remind everyone 63 is a majority and even the low end of their seat count is 67.
Even if it's a, quote/unquote, off night you still see them winning.
Why don't we do this now.
Let's go region by region and see how this thing is playing out right now.
Where are the Tories the strongest in the province?
>> Erin: 905 around the GTA.
But they're also strong in a lot of the rural areas.
They're not strong in Eastern Ontario.
They're not strong in my hometown.
That's where they're not strong.
But they are definitely strong around the GTA and in some southwestern Ontario rural
areas.
>> Steve: And the plaintive call from the Liberals and new democrats that if you want to
stop Doug Ford you got to vote for us that just hasn't cut through yet, hey?
>> Erin: That is too late.
What you will be deciding is whether the Liberals or NDP will form the official opposition
because that is definitely still very much in play.
They're tied right now.
>> Steve: Hmm.
All right.
Let's go into the 416.
Lake Ontario in the south.
There's the west end of Etobicoke in the west and Scarborough in the east.
Steeles Avenue in the north.
How does that look to you, Erin like it's breaking down on Thursday night?
>> Erin: It depends.
So in Scarborough, where seeing the NDP is in contention, we'll put it that way.
It's not like strong, strong.
But in Scarborough the NDP and Liberals still do have opportunities.
905, the Liberals in Oakville are within contention.
And in Mississauga, so those are the ridings that are very close.
But if you look north of Toronto, we're seeing definitely PC.
And a lot of those ridings in around the suburbs of Toronto are definitely PC.
>> Steve: All right.
-- >> Erin: Even Barrie.
>> Steve: Let's stay with the 416 for a little more here.
Scarborough centre, which was a riding last time that was decided by fewer than 2,000
votes and there's no former sitting member running for re-election there so it's an
open seat this time.
How's it looking?
>> Erin: Scarborough centre, it's a battle between the PCs and the Liberals and the gap is
about 7.4% with the PCs in the lead.
>> Steve: That should remain comfortably conservative on Thursday, then.
>> Erin: 7.4 is -- yes, the margin of error 6% or lower it's still in contention.
At 7% you are starting to get more comfortable.
>> Steve: Let's check some more ridings of interest here.
Kathleen Wynne ran last time in Don valley west.
She is obviously retired.
There is a new Liberal candidate there Stephanie bowman running against mark Saunders, what does
polly have to say about that.
I think Ms. Wynne won it by 100 votes so it's very tight.
>> Erin: The Liberals are leading, the PCs are in second place and the gap is 7.9%.
>> Steve: All right.
Let's come around to the Niagara peninsula.
Niagara Falls where Wayne gates is the former member facing re-election.
What does polly say about the tightness of Niagara Falls?
>> Erin: Niagara Falls is the tightest riding in the province right now.
The NDP is leading the PCs.
But by 0.5%.
Statistically it is neck and neck between -- interestingly -- the PCs and NDP.
>> Steve: It is interesting.
That seat has bounced around among all three parties but certainly of late it's been a
Liberal-NDP fight.
You says the Tories are in contention there now, right?
>> Erin: Yes.
>> Steve: All right.
That's different.
Sheldon let's do the 905 now.
These are the ridings that go all the way from Hamilton, Niagara region in the southwest,
wrapping around Lake Ontario, all the way out to Durham region in the east.
Halton region, Peel region, York region.
The 905 decides elections.
Because it's almost always in play.
How is it looking right now, Erin.
>> Erin: Well, it depends on the riding.
So in -- and a few of it, these are tight ridings, too.
So Hamilton west, as you mentioned, PCs are in the lead.
NDP second.
But it's only a 0.7% gap.
So it's not very close.
Same thing with Mississauga.
Parts of Mississauga are really, really close.
So let's see here.
Mississauga centre, for example, the PC are in the lead over the Liberals but it's 0.6%.
So these are election night and, you know, if you are sitting on the fence and wondering if you
should show up, if you are in that region, well, if you are in any region you should show up to
vote but these are very, very tight regions so the vote will sway it one way or the other.
So Mississauga centre, PCs, Mississauga East Cooksville, also PC.
5.6% Liberal.
So getting a little bit firmer.
Erin mills, 7.2% PC again.
Mississauga is going largely PC but there are still parts like Mississauga centre that are a
little bit more in contention.
>> Steve: Okay.
I got to follow up -- >> Steve: Brampton -- >> Steve: That's what I was
going to ask you.
The parties have all spent a lot of time in Brampton.
Last time it went three new democrats, two Torys.
What's it looking like right now?
>> Erin: Looking Tory right now with the exception of Brampton east which is NDP in the lead
over the PCs but only by 2%.
So Brampton east still in contention.
The others are pretty tightly progressive conservative.
>> Steve: The five Brampton ridings have really been the focus of all the major parties
in the campaign.
I know Sara Singh, for example, in centre won it by a couple of hundred votes last time.
Ken yard in north won it by a few hundred votes last time.
He isn't the candidate this time for the NDP.
It was pretty super close there.
I do need to ask you while we're talking about the 905 about the race that everybody is going to
have their race on Thursday night and that, of course, is the Liberal leader's own former
seat defeated by Michael TOBOLO four years ago that's a Liberal-tory struggle.
How tight is it right now?
>> Erin: Vaughan Woodbridge, the PCs are in the lead by just over 5%.
So it's going to be a nail biter for Steven Del Duca whether he wins that riding.
>> Steve: The margin of error on that polling is what?
>> Erin: The margin of error is 95% confident but the margin of error is plus-or-minus 2%.
But he is the leader.
So we'll give him a limb bit of -- he might get that sympathy vote that Kathleen Wynne even
won her seat when the Liberals were decimated last time.
So I would still say that one's in contention.
Last week when we talked it was 2%.
Now it's 5%.
So the momentum seems to be going away from Mr. Del Duca.
He had a very bad week, by the way.
So, you know, he doesn't have a lot of time to make it up.
>> Steve: Three days still to go.
And obviously I well remember 1984 there was something that he called the Quadra factor where
John Turner was the only Liberal elected in British Columbia on the federal election that night
in Vancouver-quadra and it was a strong sympathy vote.
While the Liberals were being decimated everywhere else in the country he managed to win
Vancouver-quadra so you never know that kind of factor may be at play in Vaughan-woodbridge as
well.
Sheldon, do you want to bring up southwestern Ontario?
Southwestern Ontario used to be in the urban parts, a bit of a grave yard for conservatives.
But perhaps that's another indication of how things have changed.
What are you seeing now?
>> Erin: It's still a grave yard.
We're seeing London, the three ridings in London are NDP with the conservatives in second
place.
So the -- actually more of a grave yard for the Liberals.
But we've got the NDP leading.
The one that's closest is London north centre.
That's only a 3.9% margin of error -- difference between the NDP and PCs.
That's the one where the PCs probably have the best shot.
>> Steve: I'm hearing that the conservatives are actually doing well enough to potentially pick
up some seats in the Windsor area where they have not won seats in maybe 70 years if you
talk about the City of Windsor itself.
Now, are my sources good on that or do I need to go back to them and give them H-E-double hockey
sticks?
>> Erin: No, we're seeing the NDP lead 19% and 14.5%.
Windsor, according to polly is still NDP territory -- hold on.
9 to 5% and 15%.
>> Steve: How about Windsor-tecumseh?
>> Erin: Let's see that's the one that's 14.9%.
So Windsor west is 9.5% and Windsor-Tecumseh is 15% NDP.
>> Steve: Okay.
Let's bring up what is almost reliably a bell weather riding in the Province of Ontario
meaning that they almost always vote for the winners hand that's Peterborough-kawartha that went
conservative last time.
It's not 100% they always vote for the winners but pretty close to 100.
What's that looking like right now?
>> Erin: Right now the PCs are in the lead but only by 0.9%.
This is one of the five most hotly contested ridings in the province right now.
PCs leading but it's statistically not significant.
It's a tight race between the PCs and Liberals.
>> Steve: Way too close to call still.
Okay.
Let's move up to Northern Ontario.
Northern Ontario, I gather, some of the contests here are quite as ton issuing inasmuch as the
parties that are traditionally fighting it out have some company in those fights.
What can you tell us about the fights up north?
>> Erin: Well, it depends on where you're at.
If you are Thunder Bay you are Liberal.
If you are the Sault, you are PC.
Timmins, NDP.
So it's really quite varied.
The north does not appear to be voting as a Bloc.
>> Steve: Let me ask you about two in particular of the Tories took Sault Ste. Marie by about
400 years ago four years ago.
They're leading right now, is that what you said?
>> Erin: Leading by 16% so it's pretty significant.
>> Steve: Check one overriding, KEEWITANAM, one of the ridings that was added recently.
Sol MOMIKWA won that rather handily four years ago I hear it's a run this time.
What are you seeing.
>> Erin: NDP in first with the PCs in second.
>> Steve: PCs in second.
Interesting, that far up north.
All right.
Does polly have anything to say about whether voters feel satisfied about all of the
options they have on hand in this campaign?
>> Erin: She does.
In is a loaded question.
But it's definitely very clear.
Especially because of the low engagement but also other factors that we're seeing that
this is not an election that has excited people.
It's not an election where people feel that they're voting for something, in particular.
This is really an election where the PCs have been in power for four years and people feel
they've done an okay job.
Although the headlines have been dominated by COVID this is not something the government had a
lot of control over things that were just managing.
And there's been a lot of cynicism I would say that we've seen in conversations here that
governments don't have control to make life better.
They just kind of were managing things.
But that's probably a reflection of what we've been through in the last two years.
There's no excitement in this election and that's what's really, really different from
other elections that we've seen.
Usually there are ups and downs and peaks.
Especially when the election is called we usually see a big peak of people talking about it and
that didn't happen this time.
>> Steve: A lack of excitement in an election campaign is almost always good for the party
in power.
That would explain why the PCs, you have them on course to win another majority.
We've got about 20 seconds left here for you to teloses, Erin, whether there is much undecided
vote left yet to pick over.
>> Erin: Oh, yeah, there are almost 30 ridings where it's neck and neck.
And between all three parties so it depends on the riding.
So -- but it's really we're choosing the official opposition at this point.
It is a PC majority government.
Who will be the main critic in keeping the government to account?
Will that be the Liberals or the NDP?
That's still to be decided.
>> Steve: 10 seconds left.
Tell me who's going to win parry sound-muskoka.
Are the greens going to have the second break through?
>> Erin: No, they're not.
I.
Let me just look quickly.
It is PCs will beat the greens in Parry Sound.
>> Steve: You will join us here Thursday night for our super mammoth election coverage
evening and we can chew over the numbers some more on that occasion.
Thanks a lot, Erin.
>> Erin: Thanks, Steve, see you Thursday.