- [Shelby] The US military
says it's planning to buy thousands
of next generation drones to help counter China.
- We have an opportunity now for a game changing shift
that we have long pursued.
- [Shelby] For the Pentagon, it's not just a matter
of gaining the technological advantage,
it's a race against the clock.
China has already militarized islands in the South China Sea
and Chinese president Xi Jinping has ordered his military
to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 according
to US intelligence.
But will thousands of autonomous systems
actually help the US deter
and potentially even fight against China?
Some experts have their doubts.
China's military has grown so rapidly over the past decade
that the US considers China its number one pacing challenge.
While China's not ahead on all fronts,
Beijing now has more ships, more troops,
more missile launchers,
and in some cases more sophisticated weapons than the US.
Western officials are concerned
that Beijing could use its new firepower
to assert control over Taiwan
and other parts of the West Pacific, which are critical
to global trade and economic stability.
- We must ensure the PRC leadership wakes up every day,
considers the risks of aggression
and concludes today is not the day.
- [Shelby] The US sees cheap unmanned systems as a way
to gain the technological edge similar
to how it leveraged GPS and satellite communications
before other adversaries did in the past.
- We have one of those moments right now
and we're going to seize it.
- [Shelby] By deploying thousands
of autonomous sea, land, air and space-based drones
and pairing them with sensors,
artificial intelligence, and even weapons,
military leaders say they'll be able to see, plan for
and act on threats much more quickly than they can now.
But getting all these systems deployed quickly
won't be easy.
One of the biggest challenges
for the United States is scaling up.
At this factory in Mississippi,
Ocean Aero says it has the ability to up production
of its Triton drone boats,
but the supply chain for many of these systems is complex.
Drones for all domains can take weeks,
if not months, to make.
Plus, as the Pentagon seeks to buy thousands
of unmanned systems,
it will also have to contend
with the boom in demand in the aerospace market
that has left a shortage of skilled labor,
raw materials and advanced parts.
So how big of a challenge will it be for the Pentagon
to acquire all of these drones,
but even more importantly, integrate them?
- It's gonna be a challenge and the fact
that the Deputy Secretary of Defense herself is the leader
of this effort, I think is essential.
- Admiral Eric Olson spent four years as the head
of US Special Operations Command.
He's now on the board of Ocean Aero
and is optimistic about the Pentagon's plans to use drones.
What are the risks of moving too slowly or getting it wrong?
- Well, you lose your edge and if you get it wrong,
you have to recover from it.
I expect we'll get it wrong early on,
but almost every highly successful Pentagon project
has been through, you know, a debris field
of getting it wrong along the way.
That's how we learn how to get it right.
- [Shelby] While the Pentagon says
it's using existing programs
and funding to buy drones quickly,
some drone makers say that's not nearly enough
to fund the kind of generational shift the US is aiming for.
Many military experts are concerned
that despite the US having a bigger official defense budget
and more innovative commercial companies,
China has a bigger manufacturing base.
It's already the biggest manufacturer of civilian drones,
including DJI drones that have been weaponized
by both Russia and Ukraine.
And China has proven
that it can crank out new weapons and technologies.
Can they scale faster than the US?
- I think so, yes. Much faster.
- [Shelby] Lyle Goldstein
has been researching Chinese drones
and drone prototypes for years.
He says like the US, Beijing is deeply interested in drones.
- I've been watching the Chinese military industrial complex
for a long time and they do have a lot of advantages.
Not only obviously can they operate in secret
and they only reveal things when they want to,
they can move things incredibly quickly.
- [Shelby] Goldstein says China has already begun working
on a so-called undersea Great wall that can power
and dock maritime drones.
And he says, the US effort
to deploy drones may only go so far.
Will that help the US keep pace with China?
- If China's going forward in this realm
and they are then we probably should too.
But I am leery that the focal point of this seems
to be a Taiwan scenario and there I'm skeptical.
I just don't see it.
There's a true discrepancy in firepower here,
what China can bring to bear
and what we can bring to bear,
and I don't see how we get from from here to there.
- [Shelby] The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
didn't respond to requests for comment on this story.
As for the Pentagon, it plans to issue a solicitation
for unmanned systems in the coming days.
- We've said before that conflict
with the PRC is neither imminent nor inevitable.
That remains our assessment.
Deterrence, including across the Taiwan Strait, is real
and strong and we're doing more than ever
to keep it that way.
(gentle music)