The lingering enmity between Iran and the United States is one of the likeliest hot
spots to spark a third global war. While Iran doesn't enjoy the type of full-fledged support
from allies that other nations wrapped up in both previous world wars did, a confrontation in the
middle east comes with the threat of rapidly becoming hugely destabilizing- and multiple
major powers all have a vested interest in how said conflict turns out. Some may be even willing
to go to war against the obvious top dog in this matchup- the United States of America.
Iran's been a particularly spicy boy since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Ayatolla Khomeini
overthrew a western-backed dictator. In some ways, it's hard to blame the new Iran's attitude- the
old Shah had concentrated Iran's oil wealth amongst the elite, creating a massive wealth
gap. He also invited western specialists into the country to help extract the oil and build
the necessary infrastructure. His accomodations for these westerners ended up violating many
fundamentalist Islamic rules, and decadent events such as the 1971 celebration of the 2,500 years
of the Persian Empire threw fuel on the fire. As inflation rocked the nation, austerity measures
that disproportionately affected the lower classes drove many towards revolutionary circles.
After the revolution, Iran experienced what many would consider an 'over-correction'
towards fundamentalism. Today, the nation finds itself at a cross-roads,
as the newer generation bear little of their father's hostility for the
west and instead grow increasingly tired of the oppressive rule of the fundamentalist
state. Iran in turn blames the US and its allies for sowing the seeds of discord.
The biggest point of contention between the US and Iran is its pursuit of nuclear weapons,
something that the United States has made clear in no uncertain terms,
it will not tolerate. Starting in 1957, Iran began to pursue a nuclear weapons program but
found little success. Faced with an existential crisis in its war with neighboring Iraq in 1980,
Iran decided that pursuing nuclear weapons was a matter of national survival. China
and Russia were all too happy to assist Iran in developing what they termed 'peaceful development
of nuclear power', however all involved knew that the cooperation on nuclear development
programs was easily re-engineered towards the development of nuclear weapons themselves.
In the early 2000s the US warned that Iran was reaching completion of the development
of a functional nuclear weapon. Under incredible scrutity and international pressure, Iran at last
agreed to terminate its nuclear weapons program in 2003, though maintained that its centrifuges
would remain and be used only to enrich uranium for use in civilian nuclear reactors. However, an
International Atomic Energy Agency investigation revealed that Iran had secretly continued to
pursue a nuclear weapons program, prompting the United States, China, France, Germany, Russia,
and the UK to put pressure on the country to cease its weapons program once and for all.
In 2006 the UN Security Council agreed on a package of sanctions meant to punish Iran for
its pursuit of nuclear weapons and encourage it to give up on going down this path. This
resulted in an immediate 20 percent rate of unemployment and significant loss of GDP. The
economic pain was severe, and the Iranian people were growing increasingly unhappy,
but Iran refused to give up its nuclear weapons program.
With Hassan Rouhani elected in 2013, the US and Iran held a series of bilateral talks
over the subsequent years finally ending in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
in 2015. This agreement was aimed firmly at preventing Iran from getting weapons,
and came with key provisions: Iran would reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium
by 98% for fifteen years, remove two-thirds of its enrichment centrifuges for ten years,
and allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors access to any facility they
requested within twenty four days for surprise inspections. Upon Iran signing the agreement,
the UN security council approved resolution 2231, which officially opened up sanctions relief
for Iran. On January 16, 2016, Iran received sanctions relief worth an estimated $100 billion.
However, the JCPOA was not deemed suitable by incoming American President Donald J. Trump. With
a cabinet full of hawks advising him to tear the agreement up and start over, Trump withdrew from
the JCPOA in 2018. New sanctions were immediately reimposed on Iran as the US offered terms for a
new agreement, while Iran declined and issued its own terms for remaining within the JCPOA.
President Trump further demanded that European allies cease their trade with Iran in order to
further isolate the nation, but they refused- opting instead for the carrot rather than the
stick. President Trump then promptly threatened unspecified consequences against the Europeans.
The new sanctions on Iran have prompted the nation to move towards nuclear armament faster than ever,
and emboldened hardliners within the country as the nation faces its worst economic crisis since
the Iran-Iraq war. The nation has long supported extremist groups in the middle east, but began to
arm and train Shiite militants in force after the JCPOA agreement was terminated. Through
its elite Quds Force, Iran has provided high tech drones to Hezbolla, trained and equipped over one
hundred thousand Shiite fighters in Syria, supplied ballistic missiles and drones to
Houthi fighters in Yemen, and helped Shiite militants in Iraq to develop long-range
missiles. The US has named Iran the forefront sponsor of terrorism, and estimates it spends
over a billion dollars arming and training extremist forces every year. Between 140,000
and 185,000 Quds Force partner forces remain in Afghanistan, Gaza, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria,
and Yemen, giving Iran a significant proxy force to threaten western interests with.
Under President Joe Biden's first term, the US' top concerns with Iran include the continued
development of ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers). These
could be hurriedly loaded with nuclear warheads or biological/chemical agents. Iran is also selling
armed drones to Russia in support of its war with Ukraine, along with sales to militants in Iraq,
Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen. At sea, Iran has seized multiple US drones
and regularly harasses US vessels, while the nation launches cyberattacks against
the US and its interests. In retaliation for President Trump's 2020 assassination of Quds
Force commander General Qassem Soleimani, Iran has also hatched multiple plots to kill
both current and former US officials- though it's unknown if it's acted on any of them.
President Biden has attempted to restart talks over the nuclear deal abandoned by Trump,
but both sides have yet to come to an agreement. Now it's believed that
thanks to the US leaving the deal, Iran's accelerated work on developing
nuclear weapons means it could be able to assemble one within a year or two. According
to Israeli estimates, Iran has enough enriched uranium for at least four bombs.
In response to the nuclear and asymmetrical threat posed by Iran, the US and Israel have dramatically
stepped up their military cooperation, engaging in a number of exercises together. Some of these
have simulated flights of Israeli F-35s backed up by American F-15s penetrating deep into enemy
air space to carry out attacks highly insinuated to be attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. The
US has even deployed its strategic bomber force of B-52s and B1s into the area on multiple occasions,
signaling a willingness to retaliate against Iran with either overwhelming conventional power, or
possibly even nuclear power. In January 2023, the largest ever joint American and Israeli exercise
involving 6400 American troops and 1500 Israeli troops was carried out, signaling a commitment to
respond with immediate force to a nuclear Iran. The US had made it abundantly clear it will
not tolerate a nuclear Iran, and this resolve is mirrored by Israel who is most directly threatened
by Iranian nuclear weapons. However, a nuclear Iran could spark an arms race in the region,
with states like Saudi Arabia and Jordan feeling the pressure to develop their own nuclear weapons
to ensure their own safety versus a nuclear Iran. This could spark a wave of proliferation
that would be disastrous for the world in light of nearly a century of careful work
to contain nuclear poliferation and thus limit the risk of a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
There is little doubt then that the US is prepared to use the full might of
its military against Iran to prevent this nightmare scenario. But while
Iran is significantly outmatched in every category, it isn't helpless.
Iran's first move in a war against the west would be to block off the Strait of Hormuz. In fact,
it's recently threatened to do just that in response to European lawmakers voting
to label the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. This would be
catastrophic for the global energy trade, as one fifth of all global oil flows through the Strait,
and Iran is well situated to enact a blockade. While at its narrowest point
the Strait is 31 miles (50 km) wide, the huge oil cargo ships that transit
the strait are limited to a narrow channel through which they can pass.
The real question then is could Iran pull this off?
Blockading the straits with traditional naval power is off the table. In the 1980s the US and
Iran went to war briefly over the collision of a US destroyer with an Iranian mine,
and the results weren't pretty for the Iranian navy. While Iran has grown an
arsenal of anti-ship missiles based on shore batteries since then, US naval and air might is
simply too much for Iran's navy of 7 frigates, 3 corvettes, 19 submarines and 21 patrol vessels.
Instead, Iran would rely on attacking merchant shipping to blockade the strait physically.
By sinking a massive oil tanker right at the strait's narrowest point, it could effectively
blockade the strait for months- even longer if recovery efforts are undertaken under hostile
fire. Modern tankers are certainly big enough for the job, but could Iran realistically sink
one of these supertankers? Unlike during the 1980's tanker wars between Iran and Iraq when
both nations tried to sink each other's tankers, modern tankers are much larger and feature double
hulls which would be harder for even modern anti-ship missiles to do much fatal damage to.
Then there's routine multinational escorts that patrol the waters, which Iran would have
to contend with if it wished to attack any civilian ship. As hostilities mount and put
the US and Iran on a collision course for war, these multinational groups would add to their
capabilities, becoming formidable challenges for Iran to overcome in any attack against merchant
shipping. Thus blockading the strait is not an impossible task, simply a very improbable one.
Though there is the question if Iran would even do it- considering that over 70% of Asian oil
transits the strait and this move would immediately drawn the deep ire of China.
While China would love to see the US and Iran come to blows, or literally anyone willing to
take on the US, it's not willing to see this happen at the cost of a significant
amount of its own oil imports. The effect on the Chinese economy would be devastating at
a point where it's already entering a period of deep fragility, and the Chinese may feel
compelled to actually lend military aid of their own to ensure trade continued to flow.
Iran's most likely move then would be to use its proxy forces to attack US, European,
and Israeli interests in the region. With nearly 200,000 militants supplied and trained by Iran,
this veritable army of militants is one of Iran's biggest insurance policies, as their
reach expands across the entire region. Never one to shy away from terrorism, Iran's unleashing of
theses militant forces would inevitably lead to a dramatic uptick in terrorist attacks inside
of Europe, with a lesser amount making it across the sea to the United States. This
massive proxy force could throw the entire region into chaos, threatening global energy supplies.
However, other nations may not be willing to see the US dominate Iran and overthrow
its government to install a pro-western replacement. China for one would hate to
see US influence grow even stronger in the region, and while Russia has
been relegated to the minor leagues, it too would be unhappy about US influence growing
even stronger in the world's most economically important waterways. While extremely unlikely,
a successful US campaign to overthrow the current regime does run the risk of
inviting action by these two nations, and could escalate the conflict to a full out World War.
Now go check out The time the US and Iran went to war for 24 hours,
or click this other video instead.